H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon

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Internet technology in China and the United states
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Biography

• Jerry A. Coltin
• Director, IMCE
• Born 12/29/58, Rochester, Pennsylvania
• Degrees BFA Carnegie Mellon, MFA Kent
• State University
• Profession Sculptor
• Occupation Arts Administrator
• Marital Status Married (Mary Jo)
• Children 2 (Sasha, 6 Sonya, 3)
• Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh,
  Pennsylvania
• jcoltin_at_andrew.cmu.edu www.artsnet.org/jcoltin
• 412.268.6086 (telephone) 412.268.3590 (facsimile)

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Mission

• The mission of the Carnegie Mellon Center for
  Arts Management and Technology (CAMT) is to
  investigate existing and emerging information and
  communication technology, and to stimulate
  thinking about the practical application of this
  technology for arts managers
• to work with researchers and practitioners
  interested in computer/information systems
  technology and develop applications in the
  management of professional arts and culture
  organizations
• to investigate the policy implications of
  emerging technologies
• to test technology for application and effective
  use by arts organizations
• and to disseminate information regarding this
  technology to the arts community.

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• Who are you?
• Name of your organization?
• What type of programming does your organization
  do?
• How long have you had a Web site?
• What is the most pressing technology concern for
  your organization?

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The Acceptance of the Internet

• Time to reach 10 million users
• Telephone 38 years
• Cable TV 25 years
• Fax Machine 22 years
• VCR 9 years
• Computer 7 years
• The Internet 6 months!

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Internet Users USA Today

• Worldwide Internet Population 2004 945 million
  (Computer Industry Almanac)

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Internet Users USA Today

• Over 200 Million Americans were online in Feb.
  2004 (Nielson/NetRatings)
• 75 of U.S. computer users are wired
  (Nielson/NetRatings)

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Internet Users USA Today10 years after it was
introduced

• How the Internet has changed our Lives
• Search engines/Google market leader
• E-commerce/eBay - the largest e-commerce site
• Spam and Viruses/MS Outlook leading carrier of
  communication
• Instant Messenging/AOL AIM latest killer
  application
• File Sharing/Napster original file-sharing
  network

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Internet Users Today10 years after it was
introduced

• How the Internet has changed our Lives (cont.)
• Personalized Selling/Amazon
• Not just for geeks/Friends Reunited
• Web-Only Business Models/Easyjet
• Shopping comparison portal/Kelkoo
• Personal Publishing Opinion/Blogger

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• Analysis of Age/Gender Users (Nielsen/NetRatings)
• Women age 35-54 Are the Power Users
• Senior citizens age 65 and older are the fastest
  growing age group
• More than 27 million kids age 2-17 go online
• Toy sites most popular in 2-11 group
• Originalicons.com biggest in 12-17 group

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• National and Foreign Headlines
• 3/20/04-3/27/04 (New York Times)
• Asia India Missile Test
• Americas Canada Quebec Court Upholds Gay
  Marriage
• Africa Swaziland Topping The World In AIDS
  Infection
• Clinton Aides Plan to Tell Panel Of Warning Bush
  Team on Qaeda
• NATO to Increase Peacekeepers in Troubled Kosovo

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• Top Searches for 3/20/04-3/27/04 (The Lycos 50)
• Weight Watchers
• Paris Hilton
• Clay Aiken
• KaZaA
• Britney Spears
• Atkins Diet
• Spring Break
• WWE
• Dragon Ball
• South Beach Diet

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Internet Users USA TomorrowHitting the World
Big Time10 years after it was introduced

• TRENDS
• Feminization of the Internet
• nearly 60 of U.S. users will be women
• E-Commerce revenues will grow
• Households shopping online were more than 6.8
  trillion dollars worldwide in 2004 (Forrester)
• Continued PC penetration in U.S. Worldwide
• PCs sales will reach 2 billion units by 2008
  (Computer Industry Almanac)

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Internet Users Today China

• China is the fastest growing Internet market in
  the world
• Poised to become the largest Internet market
• Represents untapped opportunity to direct market

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Internet Users Today China

• 68 of Internet users had Internet access from
  home (CNNIC Survey 2003-2005)
• More than 50 surfed from places other than home
• Access from work, school, Internet café, cell
  phone
• More likely to have a cell phone than a PC

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Asia Population vs. Internet Useage
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Internet Netizens by Country(Computer Industry
Almanac Inc.)
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Internet Users Today China

• Chinese Internet Audience 2004 (Telecommunications
  and Information Highways)
• Male - dominated by men 61 to 39
• Young 52 under 25
• Single 57
• Slow Connections highest percentage are dial-up
  users
• Shop online 4.2 billion yuan, expected to
  double in 2005 (Shanghai iResearch)

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The PredictionsWireless Internet Access
(Computer Industry Almanac)

• By 2007 the number of people using wireless
  technology will surge to more than 829 million

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The PredictionsComputer Systems

• Computer will be more human, understanding spoken
  and written words
• Networks will be everywhere and everything will
  be interconnected
• The Web will be smart -- it will know more
  about you and its own content
• Entertainment will be digital

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The PredictionsComputer Systems

• Small electric devices will be able to think
  because of imbedded processors
• The Internet Economy will be the single largest
  part of the global economic infrastructure
• Computer speed will continue to double every 18
  months (Moores Law)

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The PredictionsComputer Systems

• Hardware will be free, software will cost less
• Your identity will be digital making it more
  important than ever to protect your privacy

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The Predictions2015 (Gartner)

• Services will be delivered by everything we touch
  PCs will be museum pieces
• Kiosks, airplane seats, newspapers, new devices
• Networks will be pervasive and personal and we
  will pay for services we consume
• Information will be delivered by trillions of
  sensors (RFID-Radio Frequency Identification
  Device) functioning as self organizing and
  managed networks

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The Predictions2015 (Gartner)

• Sensors will be imbedded in every object,
  monitoring temperature, vibration, spoilage and
  other factors
• Sensors will run low power CPUs, communicate
  through wireless, be powered by the
  electromagnetic spectrum and cost less than .50
• Computer will be invisible and disposable