Joint NonKinetic Effects Model

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JNEM

• Joint Non-Kinetic Effects Model

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Wargaming Historical Overview
Analysis
Experiments
Experiments
Limited
Training
Field Exercises
Limited
B.C. 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Todays Situation

• Force-on-force simulations are getting better and
  better, but they are not sufficient
• Enemies often fight in urban areas, in the midst
  of innocent civilians
• Commanders must consider
• effects of military operations on civilians and,
  likewise
• effects of potential and actual civilian activity
  on military operations
• It is impractical to embed a non-kinetic,
  civilian mood simulation inside every
  force-on-force simulation.

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JNEM Development History

• Apr 2005 - Start of Program
• National Simulation Center approached JPL
• Asked for development of a stand-alone
  non-kinetic simulation,
• capable of being federated in entity and
  aggregate federations
• JNEM is currently funded by PEO-STRI
• Nov 2005 - Successful Operation of
  Proof-of-Principle
• Jun 2006 - JNEM Initial Capability Delivered
• Limited resolution and functionality, but
• Very Stable (no crashes during testing or entire
  first year of use)
• Jun 2007 - Neighborhood Resolution
• Rule sets provide further increases to
  resolution and functionality
• Linkage in several different federations
• Mar 2008 - JNEM selected as winner of the
  Army Modeling Simulation Team Award for 2007.

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JNEM Overview

• JNEM was developed as a training simulation
  designed to immerse commanders in an environment
  where civilians and civilian groups are the key
  terrain.
• Decision Makers are faced with competing civilian
  groups who have differing levels of
  satisfaction/dissatisfaction and moods - and who
  are likely to become violently hostile.

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Civilian Concerns Mood(Scaled from -100 to
100)

• AUT Autonomy
• To what extent does the civilian group feel they
  can maintain order and govern themselves with a
  stable government and a viable economy?
• SAF Physical Safety
• To what extent do they fear for their lives?
• CUL Cultural / Religious Issues
• How do they feel about their culture and
  religion? To what extent do they feel their
  beliefs are being properly respected by others?
• QOL Quality of Life
• How do they feel about their property, the
  physical infrastructure, health care, economic
  conditions, and all aspects of living other than
  those covered by other concerns?
• Mood Composite of the above, weighted by the
  importance of each, which in general is different
  for each group in each neighborhood.

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Dynamic Cooperation Modelbased on the TRAC
HUMINT Methodology

• Cooperation Levels, ?nfg, are interpreted as the
  probability that group f in neighborhood n will
  cooperate with (e.g., provide intel to) group g.

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JNEM Design Philosophy

• Loose coupling with other federates
  allowseasy linkage to different ground
  simulationsof different resolutions

• Unit locations, activities and effects in ground
  simulations are passed to JNEM Not ground
  simulation details of how these are modeled
• Some ground simulation effects cause ripple
  effects among civilians
• Damage to a power station in a ground simulation
  can cause the JNEM civilian population to
  experience an electrical blackout
• Some JNEM-initiated civilian actions happen in
  ground simulations
• Civilian unrest can generate more hostile units
  in a ground simulation these units can attack
  military forces in the ground simulation
• Some JNEM-initiated civilian actions happen in
  JNEM only
• Civilians in JNEM can kidnap civilians in JNEM,
  affecting overall civilian moods.

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Effects of Civilian Moods

• Moods affect the rate of reactive events that
  range from dancing in the streets in celebration,
  to rioting, to spawning hostiles or hostile
  supporters and hostile activities (e.g.,
  bombing), and from withholding cooperation to
  cooperating with force groups (e.g., providing
  intelligence). 

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Current Development

• Increase JNEM Simulation Timeframe
• Longer-term Operations
• 13 month game turns within 12 year periods
• See long-term effects of short-term operations
• Just continue to run JNEM after the force
  activity is completed
• Allow Reactive Decision Criteria
• Training audience specifies what to do in
  contingency situations
• Evolving to Longer Timeframe Requires JNEM
• Economic Model
• Political Model
• Demographic Model
• Actors (Human and/or Automated)
• Clout.

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Potential Applications

• COA Development and WargamingOneSAF JNEM
• Simulate short-term political/economic
  interventions in combination with force
  activities to obtain near-term impact
• Fast forward to see possible long-term effects
• Stability and COIN Operations AWARS JNEM
• Simulate different troop placements and
  activities over several months
• Compare and contrast resulting political,
  economic and cultural situations.

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Questions or Comments?
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Backup Slides
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Information Flow in JNEM
JIN (examples) Monitored Events CIV
Casualties Hostile Captures Abs. FRC
Activities Patrol Curfew Checkpoint Abs.
ORG Activities CMO (incl HRO) Mon. Situations
Combat FRC Presence Abstract Events
Assassinations Kidnappings Abs. Situations
Damage to Mosque Garbage in Street Sewage
Power Out No Water
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Variety of Simulation Constructs

• Monitored Events Occur in the ground
  simulation, monitored by JNEM
• Civilian, ORG, Hostile Casualties and Hostile
  Captures
• Monitored Situations Occur in the ground
  simulation over a period of time, monitored by
  JNEM
• Presence and Activity of Force Units and ORG
  Units
• Reactive Events Triggered by Moods in JNEM, but
  actually happen in the ground simulation
• Civilian units become Hostile Supporters or
  Hostile Combatants
• Abstract Events Human input into JNEM
• Assassinations of important individuals input via
  ISM
• Abstract Situations Triggered by events in
  ground simulation or by human input, but happen
  in JNEM
• Power Outages, Food/Water Shortages, etc
• Reactive Abstract Events Triggered by Moods in
  JNEM and happen only in JNEM
• Bombings, Assassinations, Kidnappings, etc.

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Abstract Situations

• Magic Input Rule Generic solution that allows
  
• Controller-Driven Events
• Damage to Mosque
• Garbage in the Streets
• Sewage Spill
• Disease
• Epidemic
• Contaminated Food Supply
• Contaminated Water Supply
• No Water
• Industrial Spill
• Oil Pipeline Fire
• Oil Refinery Fire
• Fuel Shortage
• Food Shortage
• Unexploded Ordnance
• Power Outage
• Communications Outage

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Facilities and Abstract Situations
Mosque ? Damaged Mosque Power Plant ? Power
Outage Hardened Artillery Site Safe
House Electric Substation ? Power
Outage Underground Site Telecommunications
Facility Resource Utility Facility Fertilizer
Plant Civilian Law Enforcement Power Plant Dam ?
Power Outage School Military Base Chemical Plant
? Industrial Spill Hospital ? Disease Electrical
Power Plant ? Power Outage Oil Refinery
? Oil Refinery Fire, Fuel Shortage
Pharmaceutical Plant Raw Material Product
Storage ? Industrial Spill Governmental
Facility Medical Treatment Facility ?
Disease Non-Governmental Facility Food
Distribution Facility ? Contaminated Food Supply,
Disease Water Plant ? No Water Fuel Pumping
Station ? Oil Pipeline Fire, Fuel Shortage Sewage
Treatment Plant ? Sewage Spill, No Water,
Contaminated Water Supply CBW Production Facility
? Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food
Supply, Disease Nuclear Power Plant ?
Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food
Supply, Disease, Power Outage Nuclear Material
Production Facility ? Contaminated Water Supply,
Contaminated Food Supply, Disease Weapons Grade
Nuclear Material Production Facility ?
Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food
Supply, Disease
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Force Activities
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PatrolPurposes Effects

• Purposes
• Suppress hostile activity Show of force
• Primary Effects
• Decrease all Abstract Hostile Mission Reactive
  Event rates (which are against the civilian
  population) by 30 ? the Force Coverage Fraction
• Increase the CAR generation rate by 30 ? the
  Force Coverage Fraction (in addition to presence
  effect)
• Change Cooperation Max slope S, Relationship
  Multiplier

• Coverage Fraction 0, 25, 1000 ( )
• Effects on Satisfaction (for Nominal Coverage)

• Cause
• PATROL
• p 0.5
• q 0