Title: David Kirby Evidence of Harm
1David Kirby Evidence of Harm
- UPDATE ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
MERCURY-AUTISM DEBATE - Autism One
- May 2007 - CHICAGO
2 - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN RESEARCH
3NEW CDC findings ONE IN 150 -- Feb 8,
2007 8 year olds in 2000 and 2002 (born 1992
1994) Average ASD was 6.7 per 1,000 for
8-year-olds in 2000 (1992 birth cohort) and 6.6
per 1,000 8-year-olds in 2002. About 1 in 150
children. Most sites found 5.2 to 7.6 per 1,000.
(A 46 difference). Prevalence was much lower
(3.3 per 1,000) in Alabama and higher (10.6 per
1,000) in New Jersey in 2002. Prevalence
increased 10 from 1992 cohort to 1994 cohort in
the six sites with data for both years (HiB,
HepB, Rho-D added 1988-1992).
4Autism Genome Project
- Linkage Scores 5.4 is highly significant, over
3.6 is significant, and over 2.2 is
suggestive. These are known as the
Lander-Kruglyak criteria. - Only one region produced a linkage score that
reached the level of suggestive. This was in
chromosome 11, and NOT in the areas that
researchers had suspected for years. - The abnormal gene (neurexin) was found in only
ONE family out of the 1168 families studied. - One would expect to get one random suggestive
score in any genome scan, and one out of 10 scans
would report a significant linkage, due to
chance alone. -
- This finding is what youd expect from a random
number generator. -- Mark Blaxill, SafeMinds.
5February 11, 2007Study Low toxicant levels
damage brainResearchers cells shut down when
exposed to small amounts of mercury, lead
- Micromolars of mercury and lead can damage
developing brain cells. - Glial progenitor stem cells simply shut down at
mercury levels previously thought to be safe in
humans. - Progenitor stem cells are extraordinarily
vulnerable to low levels of toxins. Up to 25
percent of the progenitor glial cells shut down
when exposed to low levels of lead or mercury.
6SF ASD kids more likely born in polluted areas
- 284 ASD children 657 controls, born in 1994 in
Bay Area. - Assigned exposure level by birth tract for 19
chemicals. - Risks for autism were elevated by 50 in tracts
with the highest chlorinated solvents and heavy
metals. - Highest risk compounds were mercury, cadmium,
nickel, trichloroethylene, and vinyl chloride. - Risk from heavy metals was almost twice as high
as solvents. - Our results suggest a potential association
between autism and estimated metal
concentrations, and possibly solvents, in ambient
air around the birth residence. - ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES Vol. 114 No.
9, September, 2006
7TOXICOLOGY AND APPLIED PHARMACOLOGY - 15.3
(March, 2006)
- Urine samples from 100s of French children
yielded evidence for a link between autism and
heavy metals. - Samples from ASD children had high levels of
porphyrins used to produce of haem, the
oxygen-carrying component in haemoglobin. - Heavy metals block haem, causing porphyrins to
accumulate in urine. - Coproporphyrin was 2.6 times higher in autism
cases than controls. - One author said it was Highly likely heavy
metals are responsible for childhood autism in a
majority of cases.
8Asperger coprophyrin profiles matched control
cases, not autism
TOXICOLOGY AND APPLIED PHARMACOLOGY - 15.3
(March, 2006)
9OTHER POSSIBLE ENVIRONMENTAL TRIGGERS??
- Mercury in fish/air/amalgams
- Pesticides
- PCBs
- Flame retardants
- Jet fuel
- Live virus in vaccines (MMR?)
- As-yet unidentified virus (Lyme?)
- Rampant cell phone TV use
- Sonograms
10 - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
- IN GOVERNMENT
11THIMEROSAL EXPOSURE AUTISM RATES IN DENMARK
1981-2000
SOURCE Stehr-Green, et al, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, 25, no. 2 (August 2003)
101-6
12DENMARK AUTISM RATES DROP
13NIH PANEL QUESTIONS CDC METHODS AND DATA - 12/06
- Congress requested NIEHS to convene a panel about
whether the VSD could be used to compare autism
rates before and after Hg was phased out. - In December, panel "identified several serious
problems" with the database. - Several "weaknesses" and "limitations" associated
with the database would render a comparative
analysis "uninformative and potentially
misleading. - Panel was concerned about how autism diagnoses
were made and recorded by HMO's -- asked if they
had adequate services for autism families, who
might seek care elsewhere. - These and other problems likely led to an
"under-ascertainment" of cases. (State rates were
3-4 per 1,000, but VSD reported a rate of 1.1 per
1,000) .
14NIH PANEL QUESTIONS CDC METHODS AND DATA
- Panel cited many other problems with the study
design, particularly that "a large proportion,
around 25, of births were excluded from the
analysis." - These same children "may represent a susceptible
population whose removal from the analysis might
unintentionally reduce the ability to detect an
effect of thimerosal." - Other "serious problems" included no
consideration of Rho-GAM or "other vaccinations
given during pregnancy, and no accounting for
"the cumulative exposure to organic mercurials
through diet or other environmental sources. - These problems "reduce the usefulness" of the VSD
to prove or disprove a link between thimerosal
and autism, though suggestions were given to
address the problem.
15 Quotes on the NIH report from UPI - Age of
Autism, Dan Olmsted Dec. 11, 2006
- The (VSD study) wasn't the last word things
need to be looked at again, - perhaps with different methodology,"
- --NIH Panel Chair Irva Hertz-
Picciotto, Professor of Public Health,
UC-Davis School of Medicine. - "Some studies are stronger than others. The
Verstraeten study was an - improvement on other studies, including the two
in Denmark, both of which had - serious weaknesses in their designs.
- --Dr. Hertz-Picciotto
- "We actually just got the (NIH) report and
haven't had a chance to assess it." - --CDC spokesman Glen Nowak
16IOM Workshop April 18-19, 2007Autism and the
Environment Challenges and Opportunitiesfor
Research
- IOM Forum on Neuroscience and Nervous System
Disorders Pharma sponsored. - Request from Secretary of HHS to host workshop on
the potential relationship between autism and an
array of environmental exposures (EXCEPT FOR
VACCINATIONS deleted 2/2/07) - 1. What are the most promising scientific
opportunities for improving the understanding of
potential environmental factors in autism? - 2. What scientific tools and technologies are
available, what research approaches are needed? - 3. What opportunities exist for public private
partnerships? - On the Committee Mark Blaxill, SAFEMINDS, Laura
Bono, NAA
17OTHER RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
- Imus sacked, Rosie leaves, Jenny speaks up
- Katie Wright, Oprah, FAIR Interview
- Autism Speaks Environmental push?
- Senate HELP Committee Tom Harkin
- Geier case series Journal of Toxicology
Environmental Health - Fombonne Hg in blood and hair IMFAR
- Discover Magazine article
- EOH Movie 2nd draft completed
18What About California?
- Rates have not dropped among kids born 2001-2003
Why not?
19All ages Rate of increase rises again in 2006
20Yearly trends for 3-5 year olds Rate of
increase soars in 2006
- Year Net Gain Change
- ages 3-5
- 2003 572 n/a
- 2004 545 -4.72
- 2005 524 -3.85
- 2006 668 27.48
21CDC/ACIP survey of Hg containing vaccines 2001
2002
- Convenience sample of vaccine providers under
CDC contract. - Sept 2001 225 sites 5.6 TMC
- Feb 2002 447 sites 1.9 TMC
22CDC/ACIP survey of Hg containing vaccines 2001
2002
- CDC contract sites are public health and county
clinics not HMOs or private practices. - CDC aggressively purchased Hg free vaccines after
1999 how much was left for private sector to
buy (at a premium price)? - California has 50 HMO enrollment twice as
high as the second highest state, Florida (at
25). What is the CDC contracted rate? - How many of the 449 sites were in California?
23What is a convenience sample?
-
- Scientific Consensus Data are highly
unreliable, not fit for publication, and should
NEVER be used to predict larger trends. - GOOGLE Web Definitions of Convenience Sample
- A sample for which cases are selected only on the
basis of feasibility or ease of data collection.
This type of sample is rarely useful in
evaluation and is usually hazardous.
www.ojp.usdoj.gov - Individuals or groups selected at the convenience
of the investigator or primarily because they
were available at a convenient place.www.research
-nurses.com/methodology_terminology.html - A sample where researchers make little or no
effort to insure an accurate representation of
some larger group or population.www.ori.dhhs.gov/
education
24Convenience samplesKey points
- There is no attempt to match the characteristics
of the convenience sample to the general
population. - The extent to which a convenience sample
represents the traits or behaviors of the general
population cannot be known regardless of how
large the sample may be. - When someone tries to draw a conclusion about the
broader general population, they run a real
danger of drawing exceptionally wrong
conclusions. - Using data from a convenience sample to describe
characteristics which the study did not intend to
model will almost certainly result in erroneous
conclusions. - Study authors who use convenience samples nearly
always warn against using their data to
characterize the general population.
25Mercury remained in some vaccines until 2003
- The latest vaccines that contained any
thimerosal as a preservative, with the exception
of some flu vaccines, were completed in 2001 and
outdated in 2003.
Dr. Harvey Fineberg, IOM President Meet the
Press, August 7, 2005
26Mercury Remained in Some Rho-GAM Shots Until 2003
- On April 16, 2001, Ortho
- Clinical Diagnostics was
- approved by FDA to
- produce RhoGAM without
- thimerosal The product
- has a 2-year dating
- period.
- FDA Statement www.fda.gov
27The flu shot may matter
- A pregnant woman receives 25mcg, fetus is also
exposed. Much is absorbed by fetal brain stem. - Human maternal/cord blood ratio is 12).
- An 8oz fetus (0.25kg) is 1000 times over EPA
limit. - (WILD ASSUMPTION Mercury is 4 times more toxic
to a fetus than to an adult, thus toxic
equivalency is 4,000 times over EPA) - At 6 months, a 16lb baby receives 12.5mcg or
17 times over limit. At 7 months, baby receives
12.5 mcg. - At 18 months, child receives 25mcg
- Other shots contain 10 mcg in residual Hg.
- Total possible exposure by 18 mos 585 mcg.Max
exposure in UK 75mcg
28Coal use goes way up in China 1996-2010
-
-
- 1996
- 1,500 million short tons
2010 2,666 million short tons
Source DOE/EIA, 1998, reference case
29THE SHANGHAI PLUME(Moves up and down Pacific
Coast)
Lower urban mercury plume. 10-day traverse from
South China Sea, ending May 5, 2002. Trajectory
calculations by N.O.A.A.
30 31(No Transcript)
32Early Intervention Producing More Diagnoses Among
3-5 Year Olds?
- Average Age of
- Diagnosis 1990 5.3 years
- Average Age 2000 4.4 years
- Average Age 2006 3.1 years
33Northern California KaiserEarly Intervention
Program 2004-2006
34NCK vs CDC vs VSD
35California DDS 1st Quarter Data on Youngest
Cohort (3 year olds)
36California Autism casesWhite vs.
Asian/Hispanic (1st Quarter)
37White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, Filipino and
OtherPercentage in DDS with Autism
38Hispanics have highest rate of increase, closely
followed by Asian and Filipino children 2003-2007
- Ethnic Group 2003 2007 Change
- Other 2,502 3,545 41.7
- White 9,296 13,811 48.6
- Black 1,898 2,862 51.6
- Asian 1,684 3,015 79.0
- Filipino 617 1,108 79.6
- Hispanic 5,000 9,212 84.2
- Total 22,040 33,553 52.2
39California autism increase in DDS cases by
ethnic group 2003-2007
40PDD rates in Lester B. Pearson School Board
(LBPSB) Montreal
41PDD in Lester B. Pearson School Board (LBPSB)
MontrealHighest in the District Also highest
immigration rate
42Judgment Day? June 2007 US Court of Claims
- Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (Vaccine
Court) - 3-Judge Panel will rule on causation
- 5,000 cases pending
- Closed to public and press?
- Influenced timing of April IOM workshop?
- Will have huge impact, either way, BUT
- Neither side will accept ruling as last word