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Global Warming
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What is Global Warming?

• Global warming is the gradual warming of the
  earth due to the "greenhouse effect".

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• Global warming refers to an average increase in
  the Earth's temperature, which in turn causes
  changes in climate. A warmer Earth may lead to
  changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea
  level, and a wide range of impacts on plants,
  wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the
  Earth warmer by trapping energy inside the
  atmosphere.

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The Greenhouse Effect
Met Office Hadley Centre
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• An increase in global temperatures can in turn
  cause other
• changes, including a rising sea level and changes
  in the
• amount and pattern of precipitation. These
  changes may
• increase the frequency and intensity of extreme
  weather
• events, such as
• floods,
• droughts,
• heat waves,
• hurricanes, and
• tornados.

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• Greenhouse gases exist in Nature
• H2O, CO2, CH4, . . .
• Humans add more greenhouse gases to the
  atmosphere upsetting the balance.
• These gases warm the Earth and are the
  contributing factor to the dramatic climate
  change we have been observing.

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The Land and Oceans have warmed
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Precipitation patterns have changed
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The frequency, persistence and magnitude of
El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
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Weather-related economic damages have increased
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Global mean surface temperature is projected to
increase during the 21st century
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Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
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Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts

• Higher maximum temperatures more hot days and
  heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very
  likely)
• Higher minimum temperatures fewer cold days
  frost days and cold spells over nearly all land
  areas (very likely)
• more intense precipitation events over many areas
  (very likely)
• increased summer drying over most mid-latitude
  continental interiors and associated risk of
  drought (likely)
• increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity,
  mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)

• Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
• Damage to crops
• Heat stress on livestock
• Extended range of pests and diseases
• Loss of some crop/fruit
• Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and
  increased insurance costs
• Reduced rangeland productivity, increased
  wildfires, decreased hydropower
• Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic
  systems

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Adverse Impacts for Africa
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Effect on human healthReduced winter
mortality in mid- and high-latitudes Increased
incidence of heat stress mortality, and the
number of people exposed to vector-borne
diseases, such as malaria and dengue and
water-borne diseases such as cholera, especially
in the tropics and sub-tropics
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Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change

• Impacts are worse - already more flood and
  drought prone and a large share of the economy is
  in climate sensitive sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of
  financial, institutional and technological
  capacity and access to knowledge
• Climate change is likely to impact
  disproportionately upon the poorest countries and
  the poorest persons within countries,
  exacerbating inequities in health status and
  access to adequate food, clean water and other
  resources.

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This presents a rate-of-change problem for many
natural systems/processes
Average Global Temperature (OC)
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16
15
14
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1900
2100
2000
2050
1950
1860
Year
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Health effects
Health Effects
Temperature
-
related
Temperature-related
illness and death
illness and death
Extreme weather
-
related health effects
Human exposures
Air pollution
-
related
Air pollution-related
health effects
health effects
Regional weather
Regional weather
Water and food
-
borne
changes
changes
diseases

Heat waves

Heat waves
Vector
borne and

Extreme weather

Extreme weather
rodent
borne diseases

Temperature

Temperature

Precipitation

• Sea-level rise

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Warming will lead to major changes in water
availability across the globe, with consequences
for droughts and floods

Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1
Source Arnell (2004)
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Global emissions are forecast to grow from all
sources transport power generation growing
fastest
2.1
2002 actual emissions
2030 projected emissions
annual average forecast growth in emissions to
2030
2.1
1.2
1.1
0.7
Source International Energy Agency, US
Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent
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Larger developing countries account for much of
the forecast rise in emissions
145
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Projected emissions, 2025
2002 emissions
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Energy Emissions only
Gt CO2
95
32
78
5
63
99
Source World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy
Information Administration Reference Scenario,
Energy emissions only
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To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must
start to fall soon developing countries must be
part of the solution
Business as usual (A2)
Source IPPC
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Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the
atmosphere post 1850
Source IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
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The Water Cycle and Climate
As the Earth has warmed, what has happened to
Earths water resources ?
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Changes in Precipitation
More Rain
Less Rain
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Precipitation Intensity Increases

• More days with precipitation
• More frequent and intense precipitation
• Precipitation increases are due to the strong
  events

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VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE
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Estimated population at risk of dengue fever
under standard climate change scenario 1990,
2085
1990
2085
.
Source. Hales S et al. Lancet (online) 6 August
2002. http//image.thelancet.com/extras/01art1117
5web.pdf
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Need to convert estimates of regional food yields
into estimates of changes in numbers of
malnourished people
Climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal
production, 2080 (IIASA Fischer et al, 2001)
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Grain Production
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What can we do?Change how we live reduce
energy use emphasize sustainability Change
our technology improve energy use efficiency
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A Climate SolutionCogeneration
Source International Cogeneration Alliance, 1996.
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A Climate SolutionCompact Fluorescent Lamps
CO2 Emissions and Lifecycle Costs to produce
1500 lumens for 8,000 hours
technology W lumens/W hours kWh kg-CO2/kWh /kWh k
g-CO2 Energy Cost bulb life bulb
cost LCC Incandescent 100 15 8000 800 0.7 0.08 560
64 1000 hrs 0.75 70 CFL 25 60 8000 200 0.7 0.0
8 140 16 8000 hrs 10 26 The kg-CO2/kWh
figure is based on a typical OECD carbon
intensity, reflecting a mix of coal, oil gas,
hydro, nuclear, etc.
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Five Megatrends in our energy system
Oil Biomass Gas
Coal Nuclear
Renewables
Primary Energy
Power Generation
Direct combustion Industry and Manufacturing
Liquids
Energy
Energy
Energy
Final Energy
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer Choices
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Solutions Personal Family

• Each of us must make energy saving changes in our
  lives, and convince our family and
• friends to do the same, so each of us takes
  personal responsibility for reducing our own
• CO2 footprint on the planet. How can we expect
  others to change, if we don't follow our
• own advice. We have an opportunity to lead by
  example.
• Simple steps, like
• lowering our thermostats in winter, and raising
  them in summer
• replacing regular light bulbs with compact
  florescent bulbs
• using less hot water
• insulating your home
• turning off (and unplugging) electric devices not
  in use
• walking, biking, carpooling or taking public
  transportation when possible
• buying products that use less packaging material
  
• buy locally grown foods and shop at your local
  farmer's market
• buy organic foods
• keeping the air in your automobile's tires
  inflated and the engine well maintained and, of
  course, recycling, can make a significant
  difference.

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• We can go even further than that. When we need to
  replace an appliance - choose one with an energy
  star label. When it comes time to buy a new car,
  look at buying a hybrid (or one that runs on
  alternative fuels, like E85). If it's available
  in your area, switch to green power, that uses
  renewable resources like solar and wind to
  provide electricity to your home - or if you can
  afford it, install your own solar panels on your
  home. Whenever you get a chance - plant a tree.
• On a personal level, we can direct our monetary
  investments to companies that are environmental
  friendly and/or into companies, programs and
  products that are trying to address
  environmental/climate issues.

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The second level - Local regional

• We need to take what we do at home out into our
  community. Take these same energy saving tools to
  work or school. Not only inform and educate your
  coworkers about the climate crisis, and the
  things they can do o help, but encourage change
  in the workplace or school itself.
• Attend city council meeting, and write to the
  mayor and council members voicing your concerns
  and encouraging the switch to renewable energy.
  Work to break down the regulatory barriers that
  are preventing a wider transition to energy
  sources like solar, wind and biomass.Make your
  voice heard wherever you go. Bring it up in any
  clubs, groups and organizations you may belong
  to. Encourage them to adopt it as a key issue.
• If you lead any children's groups (Scouts, YMCA,
  etc.) incorporate what you have learned in your
  activities and lessons. make sure the next
  generation will carry on with this fight.

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The third level - National-Political

• Keep yourself informed and educated about the
  issues and bills/resolutions that are being voted
  on so that you can speak or write intelligently
  about the subject. When you write or call, be
  concise.
• Do not buy into the myth and distraction of
  hydrogen technology, which will not be available,
  cost-effective or viable for decades, and point
  out the technology that is available, and cost
  effective, now hybrid engines, solar, wind, etc.
• We must convince government to encourage trade
  agreements that allow hybrid cars to be cost
  effective. The technology is already there to put
  a hybrid in any size vehicle (Toyota has small,
  and mid-size cars as well as SUVs that operate
  with hybrid technology).
• We have to get our politicians to lead the oil
  industry into redefining itself. To help it move
  from "The Oil Industry" to "The Energy Industry".
  Our politicians have to guide them to develop
  alternatives to oil. We must guide our
  politicians to lead the oil industry into the
  future.

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The fourth level - International

• Common Sense Solutions
• Fuel-efficient vehicles. Renewable energy.
  Protecting threatened forests. These common sense
  solutions won't only reduce global warming, many
  will save us money and create new business
  opportunities.
• Best of all, these solutions exist now. We just
  need to insist that business and government take
  the necessary steps to make them available and
  affordable. Then we have to let consumers know
  what to do and provide incentives to help all of
  us make better choices. This is the fight we
  can only begin to win by changing our own country
  first. We must get our politicians to recognize
  the problem and its significant consequences,
  work to change them, and then put pressure on the
  rest of the world to do the same.

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We Must Act Now

• The scientific consensus is in. Our planet is
  warming, and we are helping make it happen by
  adding more heat-trapping gases, primarily carbon
  dioxide (CO2), to the atmosphere. The burning of
  fossil fuel (oil, coal, and natural gas) alone
  accounts for about 75 percent of annual CO2
  emissions from human activities.
• Deforestationthe cutting and burning of forests
  that trap and store carbonaccounts for about
  another 20 percent.
• Procrastination is not an option. Scientists
  agree that if we wait 10, 20, or 50 years, the
  problem will be much more difficult to address
  and the consequences for us will be that much
  more serious.

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Best Personal Solution

• When you buy your next car, look for the one with
  the best fuel economy in its class. The vehicle
  you drive has the single largest impact on
  climate change of any action you take. For every
  10 litres of petrol you burn, 5 litres of
  heat-trapping CO2 is released into the
  atmosphere. And better mileage not only reduces
  global warming, but also will save you thousands
  of rands at the pump over the life of the
  vehicle.
• Check the fuel economy sticker on the cars you're
  considering and look for new technologies such as
  hybrid engines.

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• As Al Gore pointed out - even initially modest
  targets opens up new possibilities. This occurred
  when countries worldwide phased out the
  chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that were destroying
  the stratospheric ozone layer that protects us
  from harmful ultraviolet radiation.
• At first political leaders and leaders of
  affected businesses said this was impossible,
  that alternatives were unavailable or
  prohibitively costly.
• But even though the scientific data was still in
  flux, and CFCs had wide uses in electronics,
  refrigeration, plastics, telecommunications,
  aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, 24
  nations, including the U.S., committed to the
  specific reduction standards of the 1987 Montreal
  Protocol.
• Businesses responded with major innovation, soon
  surpassing the standards. Northern Telecom
  developed and licensed new ways to clean
  electronic circuit boards. Greenpeace and a
  former East German company developed CFC-free
  refrigerators, which were sold throughout Europe
  and which German and Swiss aid programs promoted
  in China and India. 
• The US food packaging industry stopped using CFCs
  in creating Styrofoam packaging, and China
  replaced their Styrofoam with a biodegradable
  product made from grass and straw. By a few years
  later, a series of amendments raised the
  standards still further and the bulk of the
  worlds nations had signed on.

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Possible Scenarios for Programming

• FACTUAL
• Documentary strands about sustainability
  (lifestyles food, packaging, driving, eating,
  wearing) and sustainable energy use/ alternative
  energy sources. Can also license the seminal
  documentary on global warming An Inconvenient
  Truth presented by Al Gore.
• DRAMA
• Characters who are passionate about these causes
  can be integrated into different dramas.
  Storylines revolving around the impact of global
  warming for different families in different class
  bands, how does the health impact devastate
  families.
• CHILDREN
• Program highlighting childrens activism around
  recycling, children as eco-warriors, educating
  children about global warming as a science
  project.

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Possible Scenarios for Programming contd

• ENTERTAINMENT
• Eco-friendly design program. Permaculture
  lifestyle. Making ecology and sustainability
  relevant and trendy.
• REVERSIONING
• Reversion archive programs that have spoken to
  this. Reversion international programs that have
  dealt with global warming an climate change.
• COMMISSIONING AND SPECIAL PROJECTS
• Commissioned companies can use this presentation
  to come up with an appropriate campaign.
• These are just general suggestions and are not
  meant to be prescriptive.
• Please read through the solutions and think of
  appropriate ways to integrate
• them into your programming.

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The End

• Its tempting to dismiss these initiatives as
  insignificant, given the magnitude of the
  challenge.
• Cuts in greenhouse emissions need to be far more
  drastic than Kyotos limited reach of reducing
  emissions to 7 below the 1990 levels by 2012.
• But some other cities and businesses offer a path
  forward, a way to act despite the efforts of
  denialists.
• Each city inspires the next.
• So does each business. The more concrete the
  solutions, the less credible the arguments that
  nothing can be done. Each initiative provides a
  model for others to follow.

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Sources and References

• Sources and references have been extracted from
  the following websites
• www.ipcc.ch/present/cop7/part2
• www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/grocc/conferences/
  2005/spring
• nature.ca/sila/edu/edu_e.cfm
• www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/randall.m.dole
• ku-prism.org/update/SummerSeminar/DrBraaten.html
• www.unep-wcmc.org/conventions/ACOPS/presentations/
  Griggs
• www.unido.org/file-storage/download?file_id12853
  
• www.du.edu/enviro/du32800/index.htm
• www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Children's_environment
  al_health_climate-change
• 2050.nies.go.jp/200606workshop/presentations/6-2Wa
  rrilow.pdf
• www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/215/28/Economics_of_C
  limate_Change_Slide_Pack.ppt
• www.eskom.co.za/content/Laurent_Corbier.ppt
• neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/ppt/Climate_Change_Ecosystem
  s_200612
• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming - 131k - 3
  Mar 2007
• www.epa.gov/climatechange/ - 16k
• www.climatecrisis.net/ - 5k

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