Radio Megatrends 2005

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RadioMegatrends2005
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Whats changing radio?

• Broad Socio-demographic trends
• Competition from other media and other ways to
  spend ones time
• Changes in taste

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Persons 12 AQH Ratings based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
Spring 93 17.6
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AT-WORK AQH Rating Persons 12 based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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IN-HOME AQH Rating Persons 12 based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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IN-CAR AQH Ratings Persons 12 based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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Persons AQH Ratings based upon all continuously
measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
Spring 93 18.4
Spring 93 18.0
Spring 93 17.7
Spring 93 18.8
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Format Shares Persons 12 Shares based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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Format Shares Persons 12 Shares based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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Format Shares Persons 12 Shares based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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Persons 12 AQH Ratings based upon all
continuously measured markets Mon.-Sun. 6a-12m
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Programming Megatrend 1Rise of Urban and
Spanish

• Ongoing erosion of non-ethnic listening
  levels,while black and Hispanic levels remain
  relatively stable
• Growth in Hispanics as a percentage of US
  Population (now surpassing Black)
• Net effect Urban and Spanish listening shares
  are rising
• Impact
• Major Groups expanding further into RB/Hip-Hop
  and Spanish formats
• Fragmentation of these formats increasing
• They still deliver relatively poor power ratios

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Programming Megatrend 2Emergence of Public
Radio

• NPRs tent-pole shows (Morning Edition/ATC)
  have skimmed the cream of society off from
  commercial radio
• Extremely professional news products not the
  hippie/weird image of old
• Impact
• Public Radio now seeing competition from Air
  America and XM
• No competitive national news product on
  commercial radio
• Problems in drive-time for up-market formats
  like Smooth Jazz and AAA/Progressive Rock

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Programming Megatrend 3Rise of Religious Radio

• In all forms Contemporary Christian, Gospel,
  Christian Talk, and myriad other permutations
• Top five in many markets
• Again, part of a broad, probably unstoppable
  sociological trend
• Impact
• More listening pulled from Mainstream radio
• Clear negative impact on AC and Country in many
  Southern markets
• Negative pull on Mainstream Urban as well
• To date, extremely poor power ratios

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Last year you heard me say
The Future is On-Demand
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I want

• what I want, when I want it, the way I want it
• Examples
• Cell Phones/Pagers/Blackberry
• TiVo
• IPod
• Internet
• Video Games
• DVDs/Netflix/Video-on-Demand

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Radio in the On-Demand World

• Content is still king
• The boring music stations are by far the most
  vulnerable
• But at the same time, young-targeted stations are
  vulnerable because kids can find the music they
  are looking for from so many sources now, and put
  it on their IPods.
• Stations with unique content especially local
  shows and personalities -- will be much better
  prepared
• Remember, Satellite Radio is, essentially, not
  responsive to the new On-Demand rubric

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Public Radio in the On-Demand World

• Public Radio is far better prepared than
  Commercial Radio for the future
• Little FM Music Commercial Radio is competitive
  as a value proposition when compared to
  alternative, commercial free options
• Public Radio offers unique programming that
  people already are paying for
• Public Radio should test on-demand options with
  various monetary models

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One more thing to watch for in 2005

• PPM is coming
• Will provide a revolution in information for
  radio
• Houston test is starting
• Edison will be producing reports on public radio
  listening
• Cross-media info
• Comparison to diary
• Much more detailed info

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Radio Megatrends2005