The Lombardia experience in Regional Foresight

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The Lombardia experience in Regional Foresight
FONDAZIONE ROSSELLI
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Regional background

• Political framework
• According to the Italian Constitution four
  layers of government, starting from the Central
  Administration down to the Regions, Provinces and
  Cities, are established.
• Recently Regions have been given the
  responsibility of designing policies and actions
  in the field of RD, in cooperation with the
  Central Government.
• Regional RD policies mostly aim at
• creating the ICTs infrastructures needed by
  SMEs to make an effective use of E-business
  methodologies
• fostering cooperation among SMEs and regional
  universities and research centres
• supporting the transfer of scientific results
  into industrial applications
• promoting the utilisation of advanced
  technologies on a large scale.

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• Socio-economic features
• Lombardy has
• Approximately 9 million inhabitants, (15.6 of
  the nation population), with a demographic
  profile that has 24 of the population under the
  age of 25 and 17. 4 over 65.
• Unemployment rate 3.8 (2002) compared to the
  national one of 9.5.
• Employment rate 51,1 (female employment rate
  39,9 and male employment rate 63)
• Gross Domestic Product 247,7 billion Euro
  (2001)
• Agriculture makes up 1,8 of the GDP, Industry
  40, Service 58,2
• Approximately 740,000 firms.
• The highest number of Universities and the
  highest expenditure in scientific research in
  Italy
• The total RD spending in the region as of GDP
  1,17, of which public sector 0,31, Government
  0,12, University 0,19 and private sector 0,86.

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Problem and Objectives

• Driving problem
• In which technology areas the manufacturing
  industry of Lombardia could become very
  competitive (excellent) at international scale?
• The identification of these areas was the main
  objective of the foresight exercise.

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• Expected outputs
• The assessment of the main areas of emerging
  technologies (Biotechnologies, Advanced
  materials, ICTs, Nanotechnologies, Energy
  technologies) in terms of their potential impacts
  on the competitiveness of the manufacturing
  industry of Lombardia
• Expected impacts
• To provide the informative basis on which an
  Action Plan should be designed with the aim of
  allocating public resources to RD and of
  involving the relevant scientific and industrial
  actors in cooperative networks.

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The Exercise

• A critical technology method criticality of
  a technology was evaluated in terms of its
  Attractiveness for the future competitiveness of
  Lombardia manufacturing industry and of the
  Feasibility of the development (from research to
  industrial exploitation) by means of the RD
  resources and capabilities of Lombardia.
• A set of qualitative and quantitative indicators
  was derived from the notions of Attractiveness
  and Feasibility
• A panel of approximately 70 experts from public
  research sector and from industrial firms
  evaluated the indicators.
• The information gathered from the experts was
  elaborated both in qualitative and quantitative
  terms, so providing a comprehensive view to the
  Attractiveness and Feasibility of a technology.

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Outputs and their Impacts

• Outputs
• A Report, summarizing the main findings of the
  prospective analysis
• A set of recommendations regarding the
  criticality of the technologies.
• A commitment of the main research and industrial
  actors, involved in the foresight process, to
  cooperate in the development of the critical
  technologies.

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• Outputs/Expectations
• The achieved outputs were well in line with the
  expected outcomes, set of the beginning at the
  exercise.
• Impacts of the outputs
• The Report proposed the following hierarchy of
  the technology areas Advanced materials (most
  relevant) ICTs, Biotechnologies, Energy
  technologies, Nanotechnologies.
• The Regional Government decided to prepare an
  Action Plan for Biotechnologies, ICTs and
  Advanced Materials.

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FONDAZIONE ROSSELLI
The Province of Milan experience in Regional
Foresight
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Regional background

• Political framework
• According to the Italian Constitution, Provinces
  were created in Italy broadly following the model
  of French Departements.
• In the last few years, Provinces in Italy have
  been entitled with new responsabilities, mostly
  concerning roads, railways, airports,
  infrastructure and education.
• In the Province of Milan a special Office has
  been set-up, with the aim of both supporting the
  process of internationalization of local firms
  and the incoming of foreign firms and direct
  investments

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• Socio-economic features (1)
• Milano, the capital of Lombardia, is a large city
  with 1,4 million inhabitants, while almost 4
  millions live in the Province
• While it was once the centre of a high-density
  industrial area, nowadays it is a highly
  sophisticated tertiary pole.
• Milano has a social and economic structure quite
  different from the remaining of the region it
  can be considered a discontinuity within the
  regional framework.
• Milan makes up 10 of the National GDP, 25 of
  National Import (68 of the regional one) and 13
  of National Export (46 of the regional one).

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• Socio-economic features (2)
• The economic system is made (2001) of industrial
  firms (23 with 33 of employees) and service
  firms (77 with 67 of employers).
• All the main Universities (6) and research
  centres of the region are located in Milan.
• Large (global) companies, either native of Italy
  or branches of foreign groups, are a very
  important component of the regional (and
  national) economic system.
• These firms encompass a large variety of sectors
  (mostly, medium and high technology), from
  pharmaceuticals to chemicals, from
  microelectronics to informatics, from
  telecommunications to electric home appliances.
• 94 of firms have less than 10 employers.
• The three largest industrial districts of
  Lombardy are located in the province of Milan
  metal products medical, electrical and
  electronic products furniture.

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Problem and Objectives

• Driving problem
• Many institutions (Regional Government of
  Lombardia, City Administration of Milan, Chamber
  of Commerce of Milan) were engaged in promoting
  and supporting the internationalization of
  Milan.
• The Province of Milan has been excluded
• In 2002 the exercise was commissioned to
  Fondazione Rosselli with the aim of showing that
  the Province of Milan had a strong concern about
  internationalization and was approaching it with
  a long term view.

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• Expected outputs
• Scenarios of the internationalization process of
  Milan area, pointing out the relevant driving
  factors
• Expected impacts
• To design policies for the Province of Milan,
  that could guide the internationalization process
  of Milan area, counteract the negative driving
  factors and give strenght to the positive ones.
• To establish the role of the Province of Milan
  against other institutions.

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The Exercise

• The method scenario building workshops, fed with
  the results of a SWOT analysis of the industrial
  system of Milan and a conceptual model of the
  internationalization process.
• A panel of experts (from academia, industry,
  advanced service sectors, institutions)
• A series of interviews to relevant enterpreneurs
  and top managers of firms in these sectors
  Manufacturing equipment, Information
  Technologies, Furniture, Clothing.

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Outputs and their Impacts

• Outputs
• A Report describing the scenarios with policy
  recommendations.
• A conference in Milan to present the report, with
  more than one hundred participants
• A newsletter (4 issues) distributed to
  approximately 1000 opinion makers and
  stakeholders,presenting the intermediate and
  final results of the exercise.
• Impacts of the outputs
• The new government of the Province of Milan
  (opposite political coalition) is now engaged in
  designing some policies according to the
  recommendations of the exercise.