A joint study by

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Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive
fuels and powertrainsin the European context

• A joint study by
• EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
• And personal reflections
• Jean-François Larivé, CONCAWE

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Scope of study

• EU-25
• 2010 and next decade
• Energy and Greenhouse gas balances
• Viability of fuel pathways and availability of
  alternative fuels
• Macro-economic costs

Resources Crude oil Coal Natural
Gas Land/Biomass Wind Nuclear
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Well-to-Tank methodology

• Use marginal or differential approach
  wherever relevant
• Production energy of conventional petroleum fuels
• Natural gas origin
• Use substitution method for by-products
  (biofuels)
• Aim for transparency of assumptions

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Vehicle Assumptions

• Model vehicle
• Representative of most popular segment in EU
  market
• Not representative of EU fleet average
• No assumptions with respect to availability and
  market share of the vehicle technology options
  proposed for 2010
• New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
• Common minimum performance criteria for all
  vehicle/fuel combinations
• Speed, acceleration, gradability etc
• Criteria reflect European customer expectations
• Compliance with Euro 3/4 emission standards as
  applicable
• Heavy duty vehicles (truck and buses) not
  considered in this study

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Less GHG more Energy?
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Conventional Fuels from Crude Oil

• Continued developments in engine and vehicle
  technologies will reduce energy use and GHG
  emissions
• Spark ignition engines have more potential for
  improvement than diesel
• Hybridization can provide further GHG and energy
  use benefits

Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) WTW
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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CompressedNatural Gas (CNG)
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study

• Today CNG WTW GHG emissions between gasoline and
  diesel
• Beyond 2010, greater engine efficiency gains for
  CNG vehicles than for diesel, especially with
  hybridization
• WTW GHG emissions becomes better than those of
  diesel
• WTW energy use remains higher than for
  conventional fuels
• Origin of the natural gas critical
• Longer supply routes become more prevalent in the
  future

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Alternative Liquid Fuels Conventional Biofuels
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Alternative Liquid Fuels Syndiesel
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Alternative Liquid Fuels
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study

• Many routes to alternative liquid fuels used neat
  or in blends with conventional fuels in existing
  infrastructure and vehicles
• Conventional ethanol and FAME provide some GHG
  benefits but are energy intensive compared to
  conventional crude oil-based fuels
• N2O emissions !?
• GTL diesel somewhat more GHG intensive than
  conventional
• BTL routes promising but many issues to be
  resolved

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Hydrogen
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Hydrogen from NG ICE and Fuel Cell

• If hydrogen produced from NG, GHG emissions
  savings only achieved with fuel cell vehicles
• For ICE vehicles, direct use of NG as CNG more
  energy/GHG efficient than hydrogen
• Liquid hydrogen more energy-intensive than
  compressed hydrogen

Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
Source WTW Report, Figures 8.4.1-1a/b
8.4.1-2a/b
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Impact of Hydrogen Production Route Fuel Cell
Vehicles

• Direct hydrogen production via reforming

• Hydrogen from renewables gives low GHG, but
  comparison with other uses required

Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
Source WTW Report, Figures 8.4.2-1a/b
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Impact of Hydrogen Production Route Fuel Cell
Vehicles

• Hydrogen production via electrolysis

• Electrolysis less energy-efficient than direct
  hydrogen production

Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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All energy resources are limited

• Energy from the sun can be considered as
  inexhaustible but
• Fossil energy is available in limited quantities
• And so are renewable resources
• Biomass needs land
• Solar energy needs receptors
• Wind energy needs wind turbines

The world is unlikely to run out of wind but will
certainly run out of places to build windmills
Should the objective be CO2 reduction at minimum
primary resource use?
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There are many ways of using gas
Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 MJ extracted
gas
Reference case 2010 ICE with Conventional fuel
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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There are many ways of using wind power
Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 MJ wind
electricity
Reference case 2010 ICE with Conventional fuel
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Liquid Biofuel Potential is 5-10 of Transport
Fuels

• Conventional biofuels penalised by less
  favourable energy balance
• Advanced biomass fuels could deliver up to 10 of
  transport fuel energy
• Hydrogen could deliver more

Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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There are many ways of using land
Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 ha of land

• CO2 savings per hectare are better for advanced
  biomass than ethanol or biodiesel

Using biomass for electricity generation offers
even greater savings
Reference case 2010 ICE with Conventional fuel
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Overall Results Costs of CO2 avoided

• As a calculation basis we assumed that 5 of the
  vehicle fleet converts to the alternative fuel
• This is not a forecast, simply a way of comparing
  each fuel option under the same conditions
• If this portion of the EU transportation demand
  were hypothetically to be replaced by alternative
  fuels and powertrain technologies, the GHG
  savings vs. incremental costs would be as
  indicated
• Costs of CO2 avoided are calculated from
  incremental capital and operating costs for fuel
  production and distribution, and for the vehicle

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Overall Results Costs of CO2 avoided
Source Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE European WTW study
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Costs

• Shift to renewable / low carbon sources currently
  costly
• high cost does not always result in high GHG
  emission reductions
• Cost of CO2 avoided start around 2-300 /t for
  the best biofuel pathways but can be much higher
• Advanced fuels from woody biomass have potential
  to save substantially more GHG emissions than
  current bio-fuel options at comparable cost
• But investments required are high
• Cost of CO2 relatively high with CNG with limited
  savings and infrastructure requirement
• Targeted applications in fleet markets
• All hydrogen routes are costly beside the
  numerous other challenges

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Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive
fuels and powertrainsin the European context

• The study report is available on the WEB
• http//ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/Download/eh
• For questions / inquiries / requests / notes
• to the consortium,
• please use the centralised mail address
• infoWTW_at_jrc.it