MicroSimulation Modelling of Domestic Tourism in Sweden

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Micro-Simulation Modelling of Domestic Tourism in
Sweden
KIRUNA
Anders Lundgren Dep. Geography, Umeå University
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SVERIGE
System for Visualizing Economic and Regional
Influences Governing the Environment SVERIGE is
a Microsimulation model based on microdata on the
Swedish population Socioeconomic data for ALL
individuals
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Current Modules
Migration
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What is microsimulation?

• Micro individual level
• Microsimulation model - Simulation model that
  describes the behaviour of individual micro units
  and permits analysis of the impacts of the
  environment
• Laboratory world for testing policies
• SVERIGE is dynamic and spatial
• - What happens if we increase immigration?

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Experiment
80 000 immigrants
Base case 60 000 immigrants
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National Tourism module

• How many trips are done?
• What do they do?
• Where do people go?
• Exchange of tourists between LA- regions

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Swedish Tourist Database

• Managed by Åre marknadsfakta
• 14 years
• 24 000 interviews every year
• Using 10 years

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Number of cases

• Randomly collected
• Densely populated areas are well represented

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Different categories of tourism

• Domestic travel with at least one night away from
  home done at leisure time

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Limitations in data

• To few observations to perform regressions
  analyses IF
• you look at municipalities and each activity in
  TDB

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LA-regions
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• Activity/purpose in TDB
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• Meeting friends and relatives
• Visit second home
• Piece and quiet/relaxation (Experience)
• Pleasure and entertainment (Experience)
• Community with others (Experience)
• Skiing (Participate/be active in)
• Sunswimming (Participate/be active in)
• Events (away 00-01)
• Outdoor life (Participate/be active in)
• Sports (Participate/be active in)
• Course meeting as leisure assignment
• Cultural activity (Participate/be active in)
• Cultural environment (Experience)
• Rush and speed (Experience)
• Seclusion (Experience)
• Prophylaxis, health care (Participate/be active
  in)

• Natural environment (Experience)
• Fishing (Participate/be active in)
• Other activity (Participate/be active in)
• Private matters/look for job (Experience)
• See the country (Experience)
• Buy things
• Attraction (Visit, watch, listen to)
• Stimulation (Experience)
• Education/studies (Participate/be active in)
• Urban environment (Experience)
• Parks (Visit, watch, listen to)
• Hunting (Participate/be active in)
• Golf (Participate/be active in)
• Adventure and excitement (Experience)
• School trip (Experience)

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Aggregated activities
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A model for number of trips

• The two key factors that make tourism possible is
  access to money and leisure time

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A model for choice of activities

• Age, gender, income and lifecycle are key factors
  that affect activity choice

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Regression analysis

• Poisson regression for the number of trips most
  people make 1 trip per month - 98 within 5
  trips.
• Multinomial logit regression for the choice
  between 10 activities

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Choice of destination

• Interaction model used for destination choice
• Compare calculated and observed number of trips
  from TDB
• Interaction model estimated by using iteration
  and minimising misplaced flows

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Results
X 1000

• Distance is important for the activities VSH and
  sun/bath people prefer to do that close to
  home.
• Skiers and people who visits friends and
  relatives are less concerned about distance.

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Tourism Flows

• Misplaced flows

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Social Bond Activity
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Visit Second Home
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Sun and Bath
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Skiing
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Problems

• Multinomial logit regression for destination
  choice failed
• Empty LA-regions no observations
• Holes in the data system missing

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Data needs

• More observations for individuals in sparsely
  populated areas
• Purpose NOT mixed with activity
• Clean the array of variables with respect to
  desired information
• What about immigrants?
• Improve visit second home and social bond
  activities by using SCB-data

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Future experiments

• Change in demand by running SVERIGE
• 50 years forward
• divorce, labour market, migration
• Change supply move central point of attraction

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Summary

• We model the flow of tourists between LA-regions
• TDB explain choice of activities
• An interaction model calculates the choice of
  place

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ENDQuestions?