Economic Outlook for Florida

1
Economic Outlook for Florida

• Governors Council of Economic Advisors
• February 21, 2002
• Hank Fishkind, Ph.D.

2
U.S. Economic Outlook

• Recession is over but no recovery until 2nd half
  of 2002
• Strong recovery ushering in another 6-to-8 years
  of economic growth
• Low inflation and relatively stable long term
  interest rates

3
GDP AND INFLATION(Percent growth SAAR)
4
INTEREST RATES
5
Florida Economic Outlook

• Bifurcated economic cycle
• Tourism severely impacted by recession and
  fallout from terrorism -- full recovery in 2004
• Substantial contraction in non residential
  construction due to recession and overbuilding
• Retirement industry holding up very well due in
  part to low mortgage rates

6
FLORIDA POPULATION GROWTH
7
Employment Growth and Unemployment Rate
8
FLORIDA HOUSING STARTS
9
FLORIDA VALUE OF TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION
PERMITS(In Millions)
10
Share of U.S. Air Travel in 2000
11
TOURIST ARRIVALS
New Methodology
12
Trends in Arriving Airline Passengers -- Florida
Airports

• Sharp drop after 9/11
• Recovery is slow
• Particularly in Orlando
• Full recovery not occur until 2003 in some
  markets and 2004 in other markets

13
Orlando -- Growth in Deplaning Passengers
Year-over-Year
14
Ft. Lauderdale -- Growth in Deplaning Passengers
Year-over-Year
15
Miami -- Growth in Deplaning Passengers
Year-over-Year
16
SW Florida -- Growth in Deplaning Passengers
Year-over-Year