Peter Cochrane

1
Mega-Flops Micro-Wonders
Mobilty Wireless
Peter Cochrane
www.ca-global.org
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
2
It wasnt always this way
Wireless communication
3
The silicon revolution!
FLOPS
100,000 Teraflop desktop
10
17
15
10
Teraflop
10
Human Brain
13
CM-5
10
12
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Delta
CM-2
11
Cray C-90
10
Cray Y-MP
10
10
Massively parallel
Cray X-MP
10
Cray-1
9
CDC 7600
8
10
Cray -2
Multiprocessors
Stretch
ILLIAC IV
10
7
CDC 6600
LARC
10
6
CDC 1604
Vector
10
5
10
4
Scalar
10
UNIVAC
ENIAC
3
10
2
Relays
Vacuum tubes
Transistors
Micro-processors
10
Integrated circuits
1000x
1
0.1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1940
2010
4
Every decade a new, lower cost class of computers
emerge defined by

• Platform
• Interface to humans the world
• Networking and/or interconnect structure

log (people per computer)
year
Based on a slide by David Culler UC/Berkeley
5
3D ICs Molecular Quantum Genetic Biological Optica
l Computing New Sensors Networks Software Lifefo
rms Intelligences
Moores Wall
ICn
Log Scale
IC5
IC4
IC3
IC2
IC1
Transistor
Thermionic Tube
1915 46 59
2010 2025
6
Disruptive forces
7
Centralized networks die?
Networks get dumber as the periphery is getting
smarter. Almost everything can be done better at
the periphery rather than in the core!
8
The dream.seamless access!
Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning
3m 30m
3km Ubiquitous
9
WiFi is never more than 1 - 4 blocks away!
35 Free sites 60 Low cost 5 Rip off hotels
gt60
10
Everyday we interact with more and more devices
11
We are now the minority communicators!
100
75
Machines
Mankind
Network Traffic
60Bn
50
6Bn
Machines
25
0
2010
1990
1985
1980
2005
2000
1995
2010
12
Mobile networks have many....
... strange attractors!
13
And so do fixed networks!
Machines can be worst of all if we do not take
care during the design of applications
Music movie downloads Phone in
programmes Mobile/fixed voting Sporting
events
14
Net visitors come in packs. a
connected world is chaotic!
Active Site Visitors
Hour of the Day
15
Network peak to mean(average) traffic ratio.
PSTN 41 Mobile 501 Internet 5001 .can
peak gt10001
This is a non-trivial problem and we are still
learning how to design/cope with such networks
16
Cyberspace is connected by a hierarchy
of computers!
Networks fueled by random behavior have the
property of smoothing out the peaks - they tend
to have power addition qualities and obey the
Central Limit Theorem
Networks fueled by correlated/chaotic behavior
have the property of summing the peaks - and
tend to have voltage addition qualities and do
not obey The Central Limit Theorem
Cell
Body
Continent
Home
Region
Car
Building
Campus
World
Fractal Cyberspace a net of nets, fixed and
mobile platforms..
17
When we design networks and systems we have to
differentiate traffic services
Real time Human conferencing Non - real
time Data transfer Business critical
Bank/stock market transaction Life critical
On-line surgery Premium Games
Entertainment
Raw IP technology is not ideally suited to real
time
18
Number Tx of devices
MW
Tns
Sensors RFID
100 The need for regulation and control 0
Bns
Ms
Mobiles
Distance Power
WiFi/Max
100ks
ks
mW
19
The spectrum myth it
is in short supply!
Actually it is mostly unused!
City of Chicago study lt17 of commercial
spectrum used
20
Attenuation dB/km
Short range only due to high path loss
100
Opportunity space
H2O
O2
10
Free space optics
O2
FM Radio
TV
1
Mobile Phones
H2O
Ionosphere
0.1
WiFi
300GHz
0.01
10MHz 100MHz 1GHz 10GHz
100GHz
30GHz of busy spectrum 270GHz
unused
21
Sheer computing power (just about) solved all the
old wireless problems

• Signal processing allows spread spectrum modes
• Auto power, channel and mode control made it all
  black boxes
• Spatial processing mitigates self/others
  interference
• Smart adaptation negates the need for regulation,
  band structures, frequency allocations etc??

22
2.5/3G
HiFi Surround Sound
FreeView SatTV DVD
60GHz
WiFi
Entertainment IT connected configured using
60GHz. Everything inter-works talks with
ease. Wires have mostly gone!
DSL FTTH
Broadband Server back up store CD DVD
movie store Integral 60GHz WiFi BlueTooth
2.5 3.0G
23
Hub/ Switch
A cloud of connectivity
Server
Router
Old wires and boxes view
New access cloud perception
24
RFID will revolutionize every aspect of the
supply chain - from raw materials to manufacture,
logistics, supply support. In the field of
healthcare RFID will save lives, increase
efficiency and reduce costs.
25
A retail revolution - RFID
WiFi in every EPOS
26
We can now deliver an infinity of bandwidth to
almost any location ..all the old limiters
have gone!
27
So, we face some challenging network
feature/phenomena/problems and in the
future!
Chaos Clustering Non-linear
behaviour/society The sociology of things and
people
28
Wireless density will accelerate in the future
even faster BUT
More wireless means more fiber
29
USA amateurs are now venturing into 3D maps with
panoramic camera additions of specific locations
vidcam feeds and data from sensors
30
BIG predictions
Positioning systems gtgt Communications
SensorNets gtgt All Nets PodCasting gtgt
TV Radio HomeCare gtgt Hospital Care
Home Creativity gtgt Office Creativity
Robots gtgt People Machine Decisions gtgt
People Decisions We will become a part of the
network.
31
BIG predictions
Fibre networks will be more analogue than
digital There will be no convergence, only
continued divergence Wireless connections gtgt
Wired connections
32
A world of opportunity risk.
Thank you, www.cochrane.org.uk
www.ca-global.org
www.conceptlabs.net
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s