Welcome to: Business in Latin America

1
Perspectives on Latin America
2
Lessons from LAs crises

• The current account is a key variable that should
  not present major distortions
• 3 of the GDP
• The composition of capital inflows is extremely
  important
• Long-term direct investment funds Short term
  portfolio
• Productivity gains are fundamental.

3
Lessons (cont)

• Fixed exchange rates as a stabilization device
  are dangerous.
• The structure of government debt is extremely
  important

4
The present of LA

• 35 of Latin Americans live in poverty. Thats
  163 million human beings.
• 86 million people live with less than 1 a day.
• Unemployment is high
• Lack of education
• Rising crime

5
The future of LA

• A country becomes competitive by having good
  infrastructure, an educated work force,
  regulations that encourage fair competition, a
  legal system that is open, honest and not subject
  to pressure, and a political system that
  reinforces democracy and the will of the people
  Jeffrey Davidow US Ambassador in Mexico

6
Red lights

• Interdependencies
• Mexico 80 of exports go to US
• Argentina 31 of exports go to Brazil
• Recession erodes trade agreements
• Backlash EZLN, Sendero Luminoso, etc.
• Countries in trouble
• Ecuador
• Colombia
• Venezuela
• Peru?

7
Interesting players in the future

• Cuba
• Castro?
• Spain
• Banks and telecommunications
• EU
• Trade vs protectionism
• USA
• Elections

8
As Alanis Morisette saysThank you!