Executive Board meeting 2 February 2005

1
Executive Board meeting2 February 2005
2
GDP. Growth in volume on previous quarterPer
cent. Seasonally adjusted. 02 Q1 - 04 Q4
US
UK
Euro area
Japan
Sources EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National
Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus
Economics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)
3
Core CPI/HICPin the US, the euro area and the
UK. Percentage change on same month previous
year. Jan 01 - Dec 04
US
US2)
Euro area
UK1)
1) RPI excl. food 2) Personal cconsumption
expenditures deflator, less food and energy
Source EcoWin / National statistics
4
Consumer price inflation in the Nordic
countriesPercentage change on same month
previous year. Jan 02 Dec 04
Sweden (UND1X less energy)
Sweden (UND1X)
Denmark (HICP)
Finland (HICP)
Norway (CPI-ATE)
Sources EcoWin/SN, Statistics Sweden,
EUR-OP/Eurostat and Statistics Denmark
5
Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro
area and Sweden

Sweden
Euro area
US
Source Reuters and Norges Bank
6
Oil price Brent Blend USD per barrel. Daily
figures
Futures price 28 October (IR 3/04)
31. January
13. December
Sources Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
7
Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude.
Daily figures. Jan 01 Jan 05
Delivery in 1 month
Delivery in 6-7 years
Source EcoWin/ NYMEX
8
CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and
domestically produced goods and services1).
Historical price inflation and projections IR
3/04 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent
Domestically produced goods and services (0.7)
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods (0.3)
1) Norges Bank's estimates
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
9
Movements in the krone exchange rate (I-44)Daily
figures. 1 Dec 2002 31 Jan 2005
Stronger krone
Weaker krone
Source Norges Bank
10
Interest rate expectations in Norway Actual and
expected developments in the key rate, and
interest rate differential against trading
partners at 13 Dec 2004 and 31 Jan 2005. 02.01.03
01.11.06
Key rate in Norway
Interest rate differential against trading
partners
Sources Reuters and Norges Bank
11
Growth in retail trade turnover and the retail
sales indexFrom same period previous year.
February 2003 December1) 2004
Turnover statistics
Retail sales index
1) Turnover statistics up to August 2004, retail
sales index up to December
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
12
Housing marketHouse prices (12-month rise),
number of housing starts (last 12 months) and
number of dwellings sold (last 12 months). Jan 99
Jan 05
Dwellings sold, in 1000s
Housing starts, in 1000s
12-month rise in house prices. Per cent
Sources Statistics Norway and associations of
Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)
13
Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt
distributed between households and non-financial
enterprises (C2)12-month rise. Aug 01 - Dec 04
C2 households
C3 mainland Norway
C2 enterprises
Source Norges Bank
14
Non-residential building startsArea (1000 m2).
3-month moving average. Jan 2000 - Oct 2004
Holiday properties
Property management and commercial services
Wholesale and retail trade
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
15
Business sentiment indicator for
manufacturingSeasonally adjusted diffusion
index1). 1997 Q1 2004 Q4
1) A value of more than 0 implies that the
majority of industrial leaders expect a
positive trend in the next quarter.
Source Statistics Norway
16
Investment intentions survey for oil and gas
production including pipeline transportEstimated
and actual investment. In billions of NOK
2005
2004
2003
2002
Estimate made previous year
Estimate made current year
Source Statistics Norway
17
Number of person-hours workedFigures from LFS
(monthly) and quarterly national accounts (QNA).
Seasonally adjusted
LFS Number of thousand person-weeks worked at
37.5 hours per week
QNA Number of millions of person-hours worked
per quarter.
LFS(left-hand scale)
QNA (right-hand scale)
Source Statistics Norway
18
Sickness absencePerson-days lost due to sickness
absence, both self-certified and
doctor-certified, for employees aged 16-69, as a
percentage of contractual person-days
Agreement of intent
Source Statistics Norway
19
Movements in the krone exchange rate compared
with the interest rate differential. Jan 02 - Mar
06

Expected interest rate differential 31 January
(left-hand scale)
I-44(right-hand scale1))
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the
exchange rate
Sources Reuters and Norges Bank
20
Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and
in External Trade Statistics, and I-444-quarter
rise. Per cent. 1998 Q1 - 2004 Q4
Imported consumer goods in External Trade
Statistics1)
I-44
Imported consumer goods in CPI2)
1) Norges Bank's estimates Clothing and
accessories, footwear, furniture, food and
beverages 2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and
cars
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
21
Interest rate increases in this business cycle
1) Estimated as a weighted average of 9
countries, where the weightings take account of
the countries with a fixed exchange rate against
USD and EUR. On 31 December 2003 this interest
rate was 2.15 per cent.
Sources Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank