Fuel Cell Investments

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Fuel Cell Investments

• Roland A. Jansen lic.oec.HSG
• Consultant Natural Resources
• Litzi 802
• 9497 Triesenberg
• Liechtenstein

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• The Past
• Present
• Future Fundamental Drivers
• Big Picture
• 4. Investment Possibilities

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Fuel Cell Investments
1. Large Companies with large R D
Budgets Example DaimlerChrysler Company R
D Euro 6 billion Fuel Cell R D Euro 1
billion GE, United Technologies,
Texaco 2. Small Companies pure play 3.
Alternative Energy Funds
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The Past
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The Past
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Behaviour like Dot.Com Stocks Hype
BlowOff Negative Cash flows - Losses Negative
Stock Performance
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Recession Signals Job Losses 2,4 Million
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Present Price Movement Sideways Price Levels
very low After War Markets always bullish
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Main Issues

• When will booming fundamentals push fuel cell
  stock higher ?
• When will alternative energy become cost
  competitive ?
• When and where can we buy fuel cell driven
  products ?
• When will fuel cell companies become profitable ?

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Future Main Drivers of Fossil Fuel Energy Main
Drivers of Renewable Energy
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Future Main Drivers of Fossil Fuel Energy Main
Drivers of Renewable Energy
2. Climate Changes
1. Resource Wars
4. Population Explosion
3. Pollution
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Future Main Drivers of Fossil Fuel Energy Main
Drivers of Renewable Energy

• Resource Wars
• Oil Dependency

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Hajj
Mekka
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Muslim Population 40 younger than 17 Official
Jobless Rate 20 Poor ! Political Time
Bomb 70 of global Oil Reserves
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Muslim Population 40 younger than 17 Official
Jobless Rate 20 Poor ! Political Time
Bomb 70 of global Oil Reserves
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Muslim Population 40 younger than 17 Official
Jobless Rate 20 Poor ! Political Time
Bomb 70 of global Oil Reserves
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Muslim Population 40 younger than 17 Official
Jobless Rate 20 Poor ! Political Time
Bomb 70 of global Oil Reserves
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Energy Ellipse
About 70 per cent of the Oil Reserves and almost
40 per cent of the Natural Gas Reserves worldwide
are in the Persian Gulf States as well as around
the Caspian Sea.
Source RePower
Source Kemp G. Harkavy R.E. Strategie
Geography and the Changing Middle East,
Washington, 1997
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1. Resource Wars Civil Wars

• Time-Bomb Saudi Arabia
• 1972 3 Million People
• 2003 25 Million People
• Big Discrepancy between Rich Poor
• High Unemployment
• Huge Debts public spending is cut
• House of Saud lives like Louis XVI The Sun King
• Revenge of Fundamentalists against USA

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Future Main Drivers of Fossil Fuel Energy Main
Drivers of Renewable Energy
2. Climate Changes
1. Resource Wars
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2. Climate Change
Catastrophic Global Warming Droughts /
Inundations / Hurricanes Environmental
Catastrophies 150 Billion p.a. Massive
Infestations of Crops Smaller Yields per Acre /
Hectare Suppy Constraints
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Deviations from the global average temperature
1870 - 2000
Temperature is increasing Trend is getting
stronger Man-made
Source IPCC Report 1996
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Deviations from the global average temperature
1870 - 2000
Increased extreme Weather Patterns - more
inundations - rising sea levels - more
heatwaves
Source IPCC Report 1996
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Possible Temperature Increase Scenarios
Degree Celsius
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18
17
16
15
14
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source UNEP
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Substantial Increases of non-insured Inundations
1960 - 1998
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Substantial Increases of non-insured Inundations
1960 - 1998
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Future Main Drivers of Fossil Fuel Energy Main
Drivers of Renewable Energy
2. Climate Changes
1. Resource Wars
3. Pollution
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Future Main Drivers of Fossil Fuel Energy Main
Drivers of Renewable Energy
2. Climate Changes
1. Resource Wars
4. Population Explosion
3. Pollution
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3) Demographics Global Population
Explosion Rising Energy DemandNew Markets
Fossil Fuels
Renewable Energies
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3) Demographics Global Population
Explosion Rising Energy DemandNew Markets
Fossil Fuels
Renewable Energies
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3) Demographics Global Population
Explosion Rising Energy DemandNew Markets
Fossil Fuels
Renewable Energies
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Exponential Growth
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Exponential Growth
2003 1,2 Billion Muslims 20 Global Population
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2020 1,5 Billion Muslims 25 Global Population
Exponential Growth
2003 1,2 Billion Muslims 20 Global Population
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Population China
China
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Population China
China
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Population China
China
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Population India
China
India
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Population India
China
1000
India
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Population India
China
India
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2010 India China 3 Billion
People 40 Global Population
China
India
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China Today (1)

• Greater China
• 1,3 Billion People
• 2002 8 Economic Growth 3 x global Average
• 2002 Foreign Investments 50 Billion
• Example Nokia-Investments 10 Billion Euro
• very industrious very entrepreneurial
• WTO Member Economic Reforms

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China Today (2)

• Cheap Producer of the World Exports 2002
  293 Billion 22
• Global export share from 6,9 to 9,6 in
  four years
• Today China is the worlds biggest consumer
  Handys
• Motorbikes
• 2003 China becomes 2nd largest consumer of
  Notebooks (Legend)

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China Today (3)

• Lack of Natural Resources
• Very big Import Needs
• Many Environmental Catastrophies

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China Tomorrow

• 2008 Olympic Games - Green Games
• 2020 Energy Needs 220

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Recommendations Fuel Cell Stocks

• Micro Devices
• Gas Production - Infrastructure
• Testing Business
• Large Power Plants

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Casio
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Casio
Samsung
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Casio
NEC
Samsung
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Casio
NEC
Samsung
2002 1.6 million laptops 3 million mobile phones
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Toshiba
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Medis Technologies (MDTL)

• Micro Fuel Cells Chargers costing 1,--
• Russian Scientists in Israel
• Signing with major partners

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Medis Technologies (MDTL)

• Micro Fuel Cells Chargers costing 1,--
• Russian Scientists in Israel
• Signing with major partners

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Stuart Energy (HHO.TO)

• Home Office Mississauga
• Electrolyzers
• 12,5 owned by Cheung Kong Li Ka Ching
• Hong Kong 1) Back-Up Power to replace
  Diesel Generators H2 Filling Stations
• Washington
• 7 in California

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Stuart Energy (HHO.TO)

• Vandenborre Hydrogen Systems N.V.
• Electrolysers for industrial use On-Site
• On-Demand
• Filling Stations CUTE Barcelona
• Amsterdam
• Stockholm
• Porto

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Stuart Energy 2003
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Stuart Energy

• 2003 triple digit sales growth
• 50 reduction in net cash burn
• Low-cost electricity off-peak, surplus power
• high value energy storage

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Methanex

• Largest Methanol Producer Interim Fuel
• Tightening Supply / Demand Situation
• 2002 188 per tonne
• 2003 238 per tonne
• 421 cash in the bank
• Net Profit 2002 26,4 Mio

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Methanex MX.TO
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Hydrogenics (HYGS)

• 20 - 30 owned by General Motors
• GM pays Hydrogenics for engineering contracts
  system integration
• Leading fuel cell testing company (profitable)
• Back-up power for telephone antennas
• Acquisition of Greenlight Power Technologies
• IPO in Go-Go days - well financed
• Profitable this year

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Hydrogenics (HYGS)
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FCEL
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Alternative Energy Funds

• MNE.L
• NALFX
• SAM Smart Energy

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H2 ECOnomy
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H2 ECOnomy Yerevan - Armenia
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Yin Yang
Yang
Yin

• Male
• Warming
• Expansion

• Female
• Cooling
• Contraction

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Yin Yang
Yang
Yin

• Sunrise
• High Tide
• Spring Summer

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Yin Yang
Yang
Yin

• Sunrise
• High Tide
• Spring Summer

• Sunset
• Low Tide
• Autumn Winter
• Mother Earth

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Yang in our Society
Yang
Yin
1990 - 2000

• Merger Mania (bigger is better)
• Egomania
• Leverage
• Sky High Stock Markets

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Yang in our Society
Yang
Yin
1990 - 2000

• Global Warming
• Energieconsumption (CO2)
• Global Population Explosion
• Gigantism

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Increasing Yin Influence
Yin
21st Century
Yang
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Increasing Yin Influence
Yin
21st Century
Yang

• Contraction of many Economies
• Deleveraging
• Renewed Interest in Religions
• Renewed Interest in Natural Resources

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Increasing Yin Influence
Yin
21st Century

• Upcoming Alternative Energies
• Family Life
• small is beautiful
• back to the basics

Yang
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2002 Shift in Investment Decisions
1. Flight to Security from paper assets to
real assets back to the basics 2. Strong
new Uptrend in Natural Resources - Volumes in
commodity markets have doubled since Sep
11, 2001 - Hedge Funds Pension Funds
Family Offices
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Mother Earth Index www.motherearth.ch

• The Mother Earth Index reflects the value of the
  23 most important natural resources

Long-Term Exposure to global resources In
Future H2O H2 CO2 Certificates
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Mother Earth Index www.motherearth.ch

• The Mother Earth Index reflects the value of the
  23 most important natural resources

Long-Term Exposure to global resources In
Future H2O H2 CO2 Certificates
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Mother Earth Index www.motherearth.ch

• The Mother Earth Index reflects the value of the
  23 most important natural resources

Long-Term Exposure to global resources In
Future H2O H2 CO2 Certificates
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Mother Earth Index Asset Class Comparisons
August 1998 March 2003
Mother Earth Index
Dow Jones
SP 500
Nasdaq
www.motherearth.ch
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Mother Earth Index 52,64
S P 500 -11,03
1998 1999 2000 2001
2002 2003
www.motherearth.ch
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Forecast Natural Resources

• Strong Uptrend in
• Oil Gas
• Grains
• Metals
• Staple Goods

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Forecast Fuel Cell Companies

• Valuations at Rock-Bottom
• Energy, Climate Shocks will propel Fuel Cell
  Stocks
• Fundamental Big Picture is very bullish
• 2004 Commercial Methanol driven Micro Devices
  available
• Mass Production from China, Russia
• After War Stock Markets Public Confidence
  Bullish

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Services

• Asset Management Natural Resources
• Product Management Natural Resource Funds
• Consulting Services Liaison Finance
• Distribution - Agencies
• Product Development

Roland A. Jansen lic.oec.HSG Consultant Natural
Resources Litzi 802 9497 Triesenberg Liechtenstein