Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia -

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Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response- A
View From Georgia -

• David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.
• State Climatologist and Associate Professor
• Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences
• College of Agricultural Environmental Sciences
• The University of Georgia
• stooks_at_engr.uga.edu

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Facts About Georgia

• In 1960 Atlantas population 1 million
• In 1960 Georgias population 4.3 million
• In 2008 Atlantas population 4.5 million
• In 2008 Georgias population 8.5 million
• Largest state east of the Mississippi River
• 8th largest state in population

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Facts About Georgia

• Northern quarter is southern highlands
• Southern half is the coastal plain
• Most of the population lives in the piedmont
• The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery,
  Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh,
  Richmond and Georgetown)

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Georgia Water Facts

• North of the fall line - primarily surface water
• Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles.
• South of the fall line - primarily ground water
• 1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in
  southwest Georgia

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Georgia Climate Facts

• Rule of Thumb 50 inches of rain per year
• More than 80 inches in the mountains
• 45 inches interior southeast
• Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the
  year March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches
• Evapotranspiration is extremely important in
  drought forecasting

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GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN

• DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
• AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS
• PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES
• DROUGHT RESPONSES
• DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS
• CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP
• Approved March 26, 2003

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Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS

• The following is the process for declaring
  drought conditions and responses
• 1A) The State Climatologists office and EPD
  will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows,
  lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels,
  and other climatic indicators that are supplied
  by several cooperating entities

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Precipitation

• 30 days
• 90 days
• 6 months
• 12 months
• Water Year
• 24 months
• 36 months

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30 Day Precipitation
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90 Day Precipitation
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6 Month Precipitation
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12 Month Precipitation
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Water Year Precipitation
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24 Month Precipitation
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36 Month Precipitation
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Soil Moisture
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Top Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)
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Deep Soil Moisture (2 meters)
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Stream Flows
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Stream Flows
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Stream Flows
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Lake Russell GA/SC
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Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC
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Lake Hartwell GA/SC
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Lake Lanier GA
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Groundwater
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Drought Level Guidance

• CD Drought Indicators
• 1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12
• Lake Allatoona
• Chattooga River at Summerville
• 2 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12
• Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona
• Etowah River at Canton
• Chestatee River near Dahlonega

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Georgia Drought Response Levels

• Level One Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight
  to 10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight.
• Level Two Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight
  to 10 a.m.
• Level Three Water on scheduled weekend day - 12
  midnight to 10 a.m.
• Level Four Complete outdoor water use ban

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Determining Drought Level Response

• Look at climatological data
• Look at triggers guidance
• Discussion

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Comments about Discussion

• Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not
  capture the essence of the drought
• Drought varies over time and space - part of the
  state may be in short-term drought while other
  parts are in long-term - the importance various
  indicators will vary from drought to drought and
  within a drought.
• Seasonal components are important as well
  antecedent conditions such as soil moisture,
  stream flows, reservoir levels

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Determining when to relax restrictions

• Look at climatological data
• Look at trigger guidance
• Look at climate outlooks
• Discussion

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Drought Outlooks

• CPC Seasonal Outlooks
• IRI 3-month Outlooks
• NOAAs and IRIs ENSO Outlooks
• Southeast Climate Consortiums Outlooks - State
  Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina
  Watch issued in September 2007

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Additional Information

• State Drought Page www.georgiadrought.org
• UGA Automated Weather Stations
  www.georgiaweather.net
• Southeast Climate Consortium www.agroclimate.org