INSEE PROVIDES BOTH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

1
INSEE PROVIDES BOTH STATISTICSAND ANALYSIS

• Analysing is one of the 6 vital missions
  dedicated to the Institute
• Analysis topics cover both the short-term and the
  long-term
• As for short-term horizon, analysis are mainly
  conducted in light of the quarterly short-term
  forecasts exercice
• Quantitative stats qualitative short-term
  information from Business Surveys
• Crucial for assessing the economic situation
  allows to know the behaviour of economic agents

2
DAILY ECONOMIC MONITOR

• On line since March 16th in EN and FR versions
• Daily updated in quasi real-time graphic book
• Displays 56 graphs splitted in 11 sheets
• Each sheet built for analysts purposes
• Possibility to download graphed series
• www.insee.fr/en/indicateur/tableau_de_bord/tableau
  _de_bord.asp

3
CONSTRUCTION AND DISSEMINATION OF TOOLS FOR
ANALYSING ECONOMIC SITUATION

• Tools involved are described with details along
  the scenario in boxes.
• If the tool is the result of a rather complex
  calculation or estimation ?working paper or
  specific publication
• Modelling quantitative variable (e.g. Production,
  Employment...) with balance of opinion collected
  in surveys.
• VAR models

4
2 EXAMPLES OF INDICATOR AS TOOLS FOR ANALYSING
SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS 1/2

• BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINT INDICATOR
• Aims at detecting as early as possible the moment
  where economic situation is turning around.
• Qualitative variable non directly observed
• Difference between P(be in favorable phase) and
  P(be in a defavorable phase)
• Estimation lies on a multivariate qualitative
  hidden markov model
• See for example www.insee.fr/fr/indicateur/indic
  _conj/donnees/doc_idconj_11.pdf and
  http//www.insee.fr/fr/indicateur/indic_conj/donne
  es/eecm.pdf
• Ref Economie et Statistique n314 1998-4

5
2 EXAMPLES OF INDICATOR AS TOOLS FOR ANALYSING
SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS 2/2

• BUSINESS CLIMATE SYNTHETIC INDICATOR
• Summary in a unique variable of the changes in a
  set of variables (e.g. balance of opinion) whom
  evolution are highly correlated. The Index is the
  common component of the variables
• Based on factoriel analysis splitting common and
  specific factors
• Assess the nature of the economic phase the
  higher the indicator is the more optimistic are
  business leaders
• Ref Economie et Statistique n359-360 2002