Regional Energy Demand Responses to Climate Change

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Regional Energy Demand Responses to Climate Change

• Anthony D. Amato
• Environmental Policy Program
• School of Public Affairs
• University of Maryland
• October 23, 2002

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Climate Change Assessments

• Majority of climate change assessments
• Mitigation assessments Energy sector
• Impact/Adaptation assessments Non-energy
  sectors

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Interactions of Energy and Climate
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Climate-Sensitive Energy Use
Residential- 56 of energy is used for
space-conditioning Commercial - 40 of energy
is used for space-conditioning Industrial - 6
of energy is used for space-conditioning
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Climate Climate Change Impacts on Energy Demand
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Research Question
Will climate change alter societal demand for
energy in Massachusetts?
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Research Question
Will climate change alter societal demand for
energy in Massachusetts?

• Policy-focused assessment
• Fine spatial scale (state-level)
• Energy Specific (electricity heating fuels)

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Monthly Electricity Use in Massachusetts
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Energy Use-Temperature Relationship
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Energy Use-Temperature Relationship
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Electricity Use and Temperature in Massachusetts
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Heating Fuel Use and Temperature in Massachusetts
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Degree-day Methodology
Degree-days are a common accounting practice used
to estimate energy use as a function of heating
degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD).
Methodology presumes V-shaped energy
use-temperature relation. Derived components of
HDD and CDD allow for separate estimation of the
effects of heating and cooling on energy
use. Majority of assessments assume a balance
point temperature of 65F.

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Statistical Methodology
Step 1. Evaluate using a statistical model the
historic climate sensitivities of residential and
commercial demand for electricity and heating
fuels using degree-days. Per Capita Energy Use
B1Constant B2Trend B3Heating Degree-days
B4Cooling Degree-days Step 2. Use projections
of future climate developed to estimate potential
future energy demand responses.
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Residential Electricity and Heating Fuels -
Sample Results -
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Residential Electricity - Sample Results -
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Electricity - Sample Projections -
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Energy Use-Temperature Relationship
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Research Objectives

• Objectives
• Estimate sensitivity of energy demand to climate
  in Massachusetts.
• Project potential changes in energy use to
  climate change, assuming no planned adaptation.
• Based on these findings
• Assess potential for planned adaptation to
  reduce energy use.
• Identify effective adaptation strategies.

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Some Larger Questions

• Do adaptive-responses of energy users to climate
  change need to be incorporate mitigation policies
  and objectives.
• Emission reduction targets and base year.

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Changes in Degree-days in US