Future Directions for Hydrogen Energy Research and Education presented to NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATIO

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Future Directions for Hydrogen Energy Research
and Educationpresented to NATIONAL SCIENCE
FOUNDATIONBy Paul WuebbenClean Fuels
Officer SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT
DISTRICTThursday, June 28 29, 2004
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Outline

• Premises
• Air Quality
• Energy
• Climate
• Hydrogen Challenges
• Research, Development and Demonstration Needs
• Potential Commercialization Drivers

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Fundamental Premises

• Managing our carbon cycle represents the single
  greatest challenge to the next 3 generations
• The pace of oil and natural gas resource
  depletion and climate change are accelerating
  faster than the rate of viable sustainable
  strategies
• There is an unprecedented need for the NSF to
  help develop precise tools and strategies to
  address these issues

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The Need to Diversify our Energy Economy Stems
from Several Long Term Challenges

• Attain Maintain Air Quality Standards
• Abrupt or Profound Climate Change
• Oil resource depletion
• Toxic air pollution concerns (especially diesel)
• Growth in fuel use
• Population, VMT economic growth
• Oil Auto Supra-national Corp. R D
  priorities
• Growing geopolitical instability

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Fundamental Global Carbon Trends

• Global Population Grows by 100 MM /yr
• 79 MM Bls / day of oil Consumed in 2003
• 32 MM Bls / day of oil Discovered in 2003
• The Atmosphere is 12 Miles Thick
• 8 Billion Tons of CO2 accumulate per year
• 6.5 B from fossil fuels 1.5 B from
  deforestation
• 3.2 B tons of CO2 is unbuffered and remains
• in the atmosphere
• It took 100 million years to accumulate
• biomass for petroleum
• It may take only 200 years to deplete it

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The Perfect Storm ?Air Quality OPEC
ImportsClimate ChangeMarket Power Energy
Diversity Refinery Capacity
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AIR QUALITY CONCERNS
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Model Estimated RiskExcluding Diesel Sources
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Model Estimated RiskFrom All Emission Sources
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Diesel Exposure Also Tracks Cancer Risk Poverty
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ENERGY CONCERNS
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Underlying Energy Issues

• Historic high demand for gasoline, diesel, NG
• Tight supplies of oil, NG electricity
  generation
• Expected growth in international demand
• Declining fleet fuel economy
• Increasing demand for higher vehicle weight
  power
• Reduced production margins for petroleum fuels,
  NG and electricity
• Reduced storage inventories of petroleum fuels
  and NG

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Underlying Energy Issues (cont.)

• Reduced availability of hydro-electric
  generation
• US energy costs near all-time highs for NG oil
• Increased market concentration of major oil
  cos.
• Increased importance of commodity market traders
• Lack of integrated state and national energy
  policy to foster
• transportation fuel diversity,
• energy efficiency
• Low and zero carbon fuel commercialization
• Viable pathways for solar, renewable alcohol,
  hydrogen and fuel cell technology pathways

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How Have We Used our Energy Technology
Bounty? Change, 1988 - 2001
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-8
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Market Structure of Oil Majors is also Relevant
to Alternative Fuel DevelopmentMergers between
1998 2001

• Exxon Mobil
• Chevron Texaco
• BP Amoco ARCO
• Conoco Phillips
• Total Petrofina Elf
• Why? Three-year Average Ratio of Reserve
  Replacement for these 5
• 1999 - 134
• 2003 - 113

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Motor Vehicle Use Increases Proportionate to
Income
1000
USA
Japan
100
Motor Vehicles per 1,000 , 1970 1996
Brazil
10
Thailand
Korea
India
1
China
0.1
100
1000
10000
100000
GDP per capita (95 USD), 1970 to 1996
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North American Natural Gas Reserves lt 10
yearssource BP Statistical Review of World
Oil, 2004
9.5 years
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Tracking Carbon Intensities is Needed
California And Selected Countries - 1995
Source Draft Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update,
California Energy Commission, 2001
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Climate Concerns
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The most important graph in the history of
science. Carl Sagan
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Global warming from 1861 to 1994 average globe
temperature, IPCC
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Hotter Days Lead To Higher Emissions And More
Smog

Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998)
Ozone (ppm)
California Ozone Standard
Temperature (oF)
Source Air Resources Board, 2000
Source California Environmental Protection Agency
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Kosa (Yellow Sand) in Asia April 1, 1998
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Asian Dust in North America April 28, 1998
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Asian Dust over the Caribbean Sea
SEAWifs April 2001NRL Monterey
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Hydrogen Challenges
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What Will Drive Energy Diversification with
Respect to Hydrogen

• Exploration Production Costs for Oil Natural
  Gas
• Vehicle Capital Costs conventional vs AFVs
• Infrastructure Storage Distribution and
  Dispensing Costs
• Reforming and Electrolyzer Efficiencies
• Diesel Competition
• Relative Upstream Downstream Efficiencies
• Aggregate Well to Wheels Efficiency
• Viable H2 Production, Storage, Dispensing O-B
  storage
• System-wide Carbon-equivalent Reduction
  Effectiveness
• Marketability of CO2 reduction credits
• Future Oil and Gas Price Expectations
• Current R D D Benchmarks

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Gasoline P-ZEVs
Hybrid P-ZEVs
Commercialization Threshold
Mass Market Commercialization
CNG
Large Volume Production Demonstration
Full-Scale Production Verification
Pilot Production Demonstration
Commercialization Risk and Technological Maturity
Pilot Production Development
Commercial Scale Demonstration
Demonstration Prototype
H2 FCVs
Development Prototype
Viable H2 storage, PEM membranes efficient
electrolysis
Lab Prototype
Proof of Concept
Time
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Science Breakthroughs Needed

• 150,000 mile durable PEM membranes
• H2 handling equivalent to retail liquid fuels
• Bulk On-Board Storage
• Transport
• Hybrid-equivalent range
• 5-10 x improvement in electrolyzer efficiencies
• Competitive first cost
• ALL OF THESE NEEDED
• SIMULTANEOUSLY !

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Research, Development and Demonstration
Conundrums Deployment History as of 2004
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Some Lessons Learned from R D D

• There are always more stages of testing needed to
  compete with fully mature conventional technology
• The competitive benchmarks keep getting tougher
• Simultaneous achievement of several challenging
  benchmarks (such as recharge time, first cost,
  energy density, power density and battery cycle
  life) can plague a technologys development for
  decades.
• Technology push  ? demand pull
• The most important synergies are often unplanned
  and unexpected

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Technology Synergies

• Batteries for BEVs Hybrids
• Electric Motors / Controllers for FCs
• Fuel Reforming / Catalyst Formulations
• 42 Volt Electronics for Gasoline
• Zero Emission Evaporative Systems
• Enhanced Fuel Economy
• Production Engineering Cost Reductions

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10 Meaningful RD D Outcomes

• 1) Gain non-OEM user experience to identify
  durability and reliability issues
• 2) Obtain up-to-date benchmarking data to better
  understand the status of a particular technology
  in a specific duty cycle or use environment.
• 3) Incentive for OEMs to take a small step
  toward commercialization
• 4) Help concentrate engineering resources on key
  component development and testing
• 5) Provide user feedback unattainable in OEM test
  track environments

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Meaningful R D D Outcomes (cont.)

• 6) Identify soft barriers like consumer
  understanding and anxiety
• 7) Reinforce non-petroleum fuel technology
  development at a time of very low conventional
  fuel prices.
• 8) Foster technology fluency or literacy by
  keeping key researchers active in the field (like
  Richard Pefley, Tom Gage, Alan Cocconi, et. al.)
• 9) Spin-off of technology components for future
  generation technology.
• 10) Keep competitive pressure on other
  technologies.

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Many feedstocks and production technologies
provide pathways to hydrogen.
Solar, Wind Geothermal, Nuclear, Hydro, Others.
Petroleum
Biomass, Cellulose, Algae, Starch Crops
Natural Gas
Coal
Power Plant
Refinery
Central Reformer
Combustion Power Plant
Gasifier

• Hydrolysis
• Fermentation
• Digestion
• Reforming
• Purification

MSR
Liquefier
Compressor
Purification
Gasoline, Naphtha
electricity
Alcohols
Methanol
Local Reformer
Local Electrolyzer
Local Reformer
LH2 truck
cH2 truck
LH2 truck
cH2 pipeline
cH2 truck
cH2 pipeline
Compressor
Compressor
Compressor
cH2 - Compressed Hydrogen
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Hybrids The New Benchmark
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NGVs Could be a Bridge to H2

• Both gaseous fuels
• Majority of H2 from NG
• ICEs capable of operating on H2 / CNG blends
• H / CNG blends reduce NOx Increase
  Efficiency HP if engineered correctly (e.g.,
  Cummins Westport)
• Co-Deployment cost synergies
• High volume HD ICE niches targetable

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Conclusions

• Concerns over oil use and climate promoting
  interest in paradigm shift
• Many options, but now only 0.3 of new sales
• Hybrids building credible momentum
• Advocates searching for policy drivers--large
  federal tax credits appear likely
• No guarantees--should pursue multiple paths

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