Let them breathe smoke

1
Let them breathe smoke

• Eric Mazzi 1 and Hadi Dowlatabadi1,2
• 1 Institute for Resources, Environment
  Sustainability, UBC2 University Fellow,
  Resources For the Future, Washington DC.
  Adjunct Professor, Carnegie Mellon University,
  Pittsburgh, PA.

RFF
CIS-HDGC
2
Objective

• To characterize the impacts of climate policy on
  human exposure to air pollution.
• Indoor
• Outdoor

3
Urban cf. Indoor Air Pollutionattributable
mortality (2000)
Source Murray Lopez (WHO, 2002)
4
Assumptions

• IPCC
• Exposure to air pollution (indoor and outdoor) is
  tied to outdoor air quality.
• Fossil fuels are a major source of outdoor air
  pollution.
• Their reduction for GHG reasons reduces outdoor
  pollution.

• Actual
• For 2/3 of the world indoor air pollution is tied
  to indoor fuel use.
• For gt85 indoor fuels are not commercial fossil
  fuels.
• Limiting access to fossil fuels, leads to higher
  exposure to pollution.

5
The energy ladder
Electricity, H2
Gas
Oil
Coal
Non-commercial fuels
Wood
Wood
Dung
Dung
6
The challenges some possible solutions

• Compounding factors
• Polluting fuels
• Low efficiency combustion
• Poor ventilation
• Crowded dwellings

• Possible solutions
• Less pollution Fuels
• More efficient combustion
• Better ventilation
• Less crowded dwellings

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Summary

• There is too much heterogeneity in circumstance
  and response modes to design Global Policies on
  the basis of high income country conditions and
  sensibilities.

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Some possible pathways

• Carbon policy in Annex 1 leads to differential
  pressure on oil, gas and coal.
• Differential pressure can lead to reduced or
  increased demand (depending on the way coal is
  treated in A1).
• Lower oil consumption will lead to OPEC price
  declines.
• Transition along energy ladder is accelerated.

• Annex 1 countries impose energy policy in LIC.
• Kerosene prices rise.
• Transition along energy ladder is retarded.

9
UK auto GHG controls

• 2001 UK passes tax laws aimed at CO2 emissions
  from automobiles.
• 2002
• Average CO2 emissions from new cars down 6.4 per
  cent since 1997, from 189.8g/km in 1997 to
  177.7g/km in 2001
• Average diesel car CO2 falls 12.2 per cent in
  four years
• 45 per cent of new fleet cars report CO2 output
  below 165g/km
• 2003
• Diesel penetration is expected to reach 29
  rise to 31 per cent in 2004.
• In the 1990s, registrations of new diesels
  averaged only 15.4 per cent of the total new car
  market.
• 2005
• New European diesel fuel and diesel engine
  standards will be in place!

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More Energy Ladder
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AB Assumptions heterogeneity in technology/fuel
use
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Will any policy do good?

• If carbon prices are raised globally
• Richer countries will be able to buy energy at
  the higher price.
• Poorer countries may revert to more traditional
  biomass burning.

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Global Household Energy Use and Typical Air
Quality Conditions
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Non-commercial fuel(of energy use)
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Global Indoor vs. Outdoor Air Quality
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Estimating Air Pollution Mortality (and
Disability Adjusted Life Years - DALYs)
Outdoor Air Pollution Risk Factor Outdoor
Particulate Concentration Mortality (PM10)
(Population exposed) (Dose-Response)
Biomass Coal
Indoor Air Pollution Risk factor exposure to
solid fuel, or not binary Mortality
(Population exposed) (Pop attrib. risk)
(Burden of disease) diseases ARI (children
lt5) COPD (women gt 15) lung cancer (women gt 15)

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Determinants of Air Pollution Health Risks
Person
Place
Agent
Time