Techniques of Political Analysis

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Techniques of Political Analysis

• Introduction to Science
• The scientific method, research design and
  quantitative methods

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What is our goal?

• To better understand the process and methods of
  empirical research in order to acquire scientific
  knowledge about political phenomena (to develop
  theories)

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Definitions

• Empirical research research based on the actual,
  objective observation of phenomena
• Scientific Knowledge knowledge that is based on
  objective, systematic observation and can be, in
  principle, verified or falsified by a shared set
  of standards and procedures

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Scientific Knowledge

• Empirical verification
• Nonnormative
• Transmissible
• General
• Explanatory
• Provisional

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Empirical verification

• A statement must be proved true by means of
  objective observation (empirical)
• The acceptance or rejection of a statement
  regarding something known must be influences by
  observation (verified)

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• Mystical Knowledge?
• Knowledge based upon superstitions?
• Commonsense knowledge?

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Nonnormative

• Knowledge concerned with factual or objective
  determinations not evaluation or prescription

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Transmissible

• The methods used in making scientific discoveries
  must be made explicit so that others can analyze
  and replicate findings.

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General

• Applicable to many rather than just a few cases.
• Knowledge that describes, explains, and predicts
  many phenomena or a set of similar occurrences is
  more valuable than knowledge that addresses a
  single phenomenon.

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Empirical generalization

• A statement that communicates general
  information, summarizing the relationship between
  two individual facts

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Explanatory

• A conclusion can be derived (logically) from a
  set of general propositions and specific initial
  conditions.
• The goal of explanation is sometimes to account
  for a specific event, but more often to explain
  general classes of phenomena.
• Answers the why questions.-- beyond just
  description

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Predictive

• It offers systematic, reasoned anticipation of
  future events.
• Probabilistic explanation-- it is not necessary
  to explain or predict a phenomenon with 100
  accuracy

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Provisional

• Subject to revision and change

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How to acquire scientific knowledge

• Induction the process of reasoning from specific
  observation to general theory-- observation
  precedes theory
• Deduction the process of proceeding from general
  principle or theory to specific observations-- on
  the basis of theory certain phenomena are
  predicted

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What is the scientific method?

• Scientific method Principles and procedures for
  the systematic pursuit of knowledge involving the
  recognition and formulation of a problem, the
  collection of data through observation and
  experiment, and the formulation and testing of
  hypothesizes.

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Scientific Methodprinciples and procedures for
the systematic pursuit of knowledge

• Recognition and formulation of problem
• Collection of data through observation and/or
  experiment
• The formulation and testing of hypotheses

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Paths of bias

• Ambiguous information bias When information is
  unclear, we tend to interpret it in a way that
  suits our preexisting opinions. Example?
• Unambiguous Information biasSubjecting
  unfavorable information to more critical
  scrutiny. Example?

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Science as a tool for minimizing bias

• Science, and the scientific method, provide us
  with ways to overcome bias
• Helps researchers deal with data in a more
  objective way

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Asking a good question

• The pursuit of all scientific research begins
  with a good question. Sometimes these questions
  stem from previously unexplained phenomena, new
  application of existing ideas or failures in
  preexisting theories-- scientific knowledge is
  PROVISIONAL!!

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Characteristics of good questions

• Political in substance
• Should yield scientific explanation, not fact
• Focus on relationships
• Not normative

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The so what test

• Will the answer to it make a significant
  contribution to the accumulation of our
  understanding of and knowledge about political
  phenomena?
• Will it be useful for practitioners and policy
  makers?
• Will it provide an interesting test of a theory?

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Proposing explanations

• Identify other phenomena that might help account
  for the object of our research
• Specify how and why the phenomena are related
• Think in terms of independent and dependent
  variables

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Definitions

• Independent variable the measure of the
  phenomena that is thought to influence, affect,
  or cause some other phenomenon
• Dependent variable thought to be caused, to
  depend upon, or to be a function of an
  independent variable-- this is what the
  researcher is attempting to explain

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Arrow Diagrams
IV
DV
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Remember, theories can have more than one
independent variable. Some theories have dozens
of causal mechanisms
IV
DV
IV
IV
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Antecedent and Intervening Variables
DV
IV
AV
INT
IV
DV
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Formulating Hypotheses

• Hypothesis a guess(but of an educated nature)
  that represents the proposed explanation for some
  phenomenon-- indicating how an independent
  variable is thought to affect, influence, or
  alter a dependent variable
• Since they are proposed relationships, they may
  turn out to be incorrect

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Types of hypotheses

• Null
• Correlative
• Directional
• Causal

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Null

• No relationship exists
• A countrys economic development is unrelated to
  how democratic it is

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Correlative

• Simply states that a relationship exists
• There is a relationship between the amount of
  money spent by candidates in a campaign and voter
  turnout on election day

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Directional

• Specifies a direction of the relationship
• The more time an individual spends reading the
  newspaper, the more interested he or she will be
  in politics

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Causal

• If -- then statements
• Spending more on defense programs makes a
  country more likely to get involved in an
  international conflict

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Causality

• In developing explanations, we routinely talk in
  terms of something being caused by something
  else.
• The scientific process is generally thought of
  as the never ending search for causality

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Requirements for causality

• Covariationa change in one variable is
  associated with a change in the other
• Temporal Sequence A change in the independent
  variable (X) precedes the change in the dependent
  variable (Y)
• Spurious Can we rule out a third factor that
  may have caused them both
• Coincidence

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Characteristics of good hypotheses

• Empirical
• General
• Plausible
• Specific
• Consistent with the data
• Testable