CALMAC MEETING

1
CALMAC MEETING

• July 18, 2007
• Pacific Energy Center

2
Shel Feldman

• Memorial Service
• Memorial services will be held this Thursday
  morning, July 19, in Madison at 900 am at the
  Cress Funeral Home on Speedway. Directly
  following the service the family, and anyone who
  wishes to come, will travel to Chicago for
  interment at the Shalom Memorial Park in
  Arlington Heights. Following will be a reception
  at Shels sisters home in Chicago. Anyone
  living in the Chicago area is invited to attend.
  If you would like to participate, please contact
  Cara Lee Mahany Braithwait (samb_at_CAEnergy.com
  608-231-2552) for additional details.
• Shel Eve Feldman Fund
• IEPEC has changed the name of the recently
  established Eve Feldman Scholarship Fund to the
  Shel Eve Feldman Fund. You can contribute to
  the fund by donating money to IEPEC earmarked for
  this fund. Send the check to Jane Peters, P.O.
  Box 12312, Portland, Oregon 97212. Write it out
  to IEPEC and make a note on the check that it is
  for the Shel Eve Feldman Fund. The first
  scholarships from this fund will be awarded at
  IEPEC next month. At least one person from
  Shels family will be at IEPEC to present the
  scholarships to the students who will be
  benefiting from this fund.
• Letters of Condolence
• Letters of condolence can be sent to
•     Nikki Boyle (Shels daughter)
•     5201 Timber Cove
• Baton Rouge. LA 70808

3
Attribution Net-To-Gross in the New Millenium

• Rafael Friedmann
• CALMAC Meeting
• July 18, 2007
• Pacific Energy Center

4
Objectives for CALMAC 2007

• Present key results of recent EMV studies of
  Californias EnergyEfficiency Programs
• Identify results that apply to 2006-08 programs
• Showcase the variety of evaluation projects
  undertaken
• Provide a forum for evaluators and implementers
  to exchange information
• Identify key researchable issues going forward

5
Evaluation in the Context of the Big Bold World

• Context is changing to much more EE-friendly!
• Private Public engaged/interested/taking action
• 30 years of efforts
• Infrastructure
• Harvest Time!
• Big-Bold Efforts Being Considered
• Seek multi-partner involvement
• Focus on much longer-term results
• Issues for Evaluation
• Attribution of savings?
• NTG?
• Need to focus on data collection methods in
  this new world!

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Agenda July 18, 2007

• 930 - 945 Introduction Rafael Friedmann
  CALMAC Chair 2007
• 945 11 00 Evaluators Panel presents recent
  efforts views on Attribution and NTG
• Tami Rasmussen NTG for California IOUs
  2004-2005 Upstream Lighting Program
• Donald R. Dohrmann "Methods for Estimating Net
  Savings for Statewide Residential Appliance
  Recycling Program
• Dan Violette Select Issues in Attribution and
  Net-to-Gross Practical Examples for Discussion
• Clark Bernier NTG in the New Construction arena
• Mike Rufo NTG in Long Lead Time Situations
• Doug Mahone Codes Standards New Evaluation
  Findings Updated Ex-Ante Estimates
• 1100 -1200 Discussion on Attribution and Role
  of NTG
• 1300-1400 Discussion on Alternative Methods
  for Attribution

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Net-To-Gross for California IOUs 2004-2005
Upstream Lighting Program

• Tami Rasmussen

8
Methods for Estimating Net Savings for Statewide
Residential Appliance Recycling Program

• Donald R. Dohrmann

9
Select Issues in Attribution and Net-to-Gross
Practical Examples for Discussion

• Dan Violette

10
Net-To-Gross in the New Construction Arena

• Clark Bernier

11
Net-To-Gross in Long Lead Time Situations

• Mike Rufo

12
Codes Standards New Evaluation Findings
Updated Ex-Ante Estimates

• Doug Mahone

13
Discussion on Attribution and Role of NTG

• If our purpose is to maximize cost-effective
  energy savings to society,
• Can evaluation still provide credible attribution
  findings for Portfolio Program optimization?
• Can NTG (free riders /or spillover) be
  accurately estimated in todays context?
• What key conditions are needed for accurate
  estimation of NTG and/or attribution?
• Where do these key conditions still exist? Where
  dont they?

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Discussion on Alternative Methods for Attribution

• For situations where NTG no longer is deemed
  credible,
• Can alternative evaluation methods still provide
  credible attribution findings for Portfolio
  Program optimization?
• Do these alternate methods need to be specific by
  customer segment, market situation, programs
  and/or measures?
• What key data are needed for accurate estimation
  of attribution?
• Do we collect this data already? What data is
  still needed?

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Action Plan What Next?

• For situations where NTG no longer is deemed
  credible for attribution of savings,
• How can the evaluation community determine the
  best course to follow?
• What are the roles of key players within
  California and Nationwide?
• What are key action items and who will be
  responsible for them?
• What key deadlines need results of this work?

16
Thanks!

• Please submit issues for future CALMAC Meetings
  to
• rafi_at_pge.com
• 415 972 5799