Dynamic Analysis of Policy Priorities

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Dynamic Analysis of Policy Priorities

• Andrzej M.J. Skulimowski
• OR Department, AGH University of Science
  Technology,
• Centre for Decision Sciences and Forecasting
• Progress Business Foundation, Kraków, Poland
• www.foresight.pl, ams_at_agh.edu.pl

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Foresight and Multicriteria Analysis

• - A relevant application area of the MCDM
  methods
• Source of additional preference information for
  solving MCDM problems
• Priority rankings as one of the key issues
• An ad hoc definition from the OR analyst point of
  view
• An approach to explore the future by defining
  scenarios, eliciting expert knowledge, and
  planning conditional (rule-based) future actions

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Multicriteria rankings in foresight

• What is to be ranked
• Technologies
• Scenarios
• Policies (policy strategies)
• Policy areas (as superordinated to policies)
• Research areas
• Research, economic, policy subjects and objects
• NOTE usually indicators are imposed by law or
  are standardised

• Ranking criteria
• lifetime, costs of acquisition and maintenance,
  environmental impact
• Probability of occurrence
• c) and d) Aggregated economical (GDP pc),
  sustainability (total emmission) and social
  (unemployment etc.) indicators informally
  expected image at the voters
• e) Value of expected technology transfer, chnace
  to take part in international research
  programmes, number of patents, publications etc.

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Building a ranking in a foresight exercise 1.
Classical approach

• Step 1. Define the objects to be ranked (this may
  be a part of the previous stages of a foresight
  exercise)
• Step 2. Associate the criteria to the objects
• Step 3. Gather and represent the knowledge about
  the future (trends, scenarios, experts
  assessments, forecasts, and their mutual
  relations)
• Step 4. Build the ranking NOW to be applied in
  FUTURE (a playground for outranking methods)
• Step 5. Translate the quantitative results into
  the experts recommendations to be presented to
  the decision-makers
• Repeat Steps 3-5 after every change of
  decision-makers or external circumstances

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Building a ranking in a foresight exercise 2.
Dynamic approach

• Step 1. Define the objects to be ranked and their
  transformation dynamics during the foresight
  period
• Step 2. Associate the criteria (as functions of
  time) to the objects
• Step 3. Assign the Initial Relative Importance
  Factors to the policy areas
• Step 4. Gather and represent the knowledge about
  the future (trends, scenarios, experts
  assessments, forecasts, and their mutual
  relations, and describe quantitatively the
  dependence of (n1)th moment policy priorities on
  the n-th)
• Step 5. Build the ranking NOW to be applied in
  FUTURE (a playground for outranking methods) and
  UPDATED according to predefined policy rules
  every time after an intermediate goal is attained
  or when external circumstances occur
• Step 6. Translate the quantitative results into
  the experts recommendations to be presented to
  the decision-makers, including the potential
  results of the prior attainment of certain policy
  goals
• Step 6a. Present the temporal preference
  structure for the policy targets to be attained

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A case study Building the regional dynamic
policy rankings for the Malopolska Voivodship,
Poland
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Foresight objectives

• Explore the results of the economic and
  technology-related data acquisition performed
  within the exercise
• Verify the expert indications concerning the role
  of the region until 2020
• Show the ways (i.e. build scenarios) of
  integrating the Malopolska region in Europe
• Extrapolate the goals defined in the Regional
  Development Strategy until 2020 and beyond
• Define the dynamic policy rankings for the
  Regional Government until 2020

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Strategic goals of the region as implied by the
Regional Development Strategy

• Education and enterpreunership
• Environmental problems sustainably solved
• Durable economic development
• Better accessibility of the region by air,
  motorways, and rail
• Intra-regional co-operation for sustainable
  development of Europe

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SWOTC ANALYSIS FOR MALOPOLSKA

• Strenghts
• Major tourist attractions in Poland
• A. Cultural Wawel Castle, Old Kraków,
  Wieliczka Salt Mine and Museum, regularly
  organised festivals and other cultural events
• B. Natural Tatra, Beskidy and Pieniny
  Mountains, Dunajec Gorge
• Rich traditions in the classic, jazz and pop
  music
• Well-known theaters
• Well-developed infrastructure for winter sports
• Well-developed phonographic industry and
  distribution sector

• Weaknesses
• Low attractiveness of the region as the site of
  publishers, media groups and related companies
• Low level of foregn investment in the media and
  tourism sectors
• Insufficient promotion of cultural events by
  local media
• Lack of co-ordinated culture support policy
  (Voivodship vs. Municipal authorities)
• Insufficient or inadequate promotion of the
  region abroad
• Lack of tourism promotion co-ordination between
  the regional and municipal authorities
• Insufficient tourist information

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• Opportunities
• Development of small specialised publishers based
  on the local academic infrastructure
• Active promotion in the web
• Kraków as a friendly place of living of a number
  of well-known authors and artists and its
  multiplicative effect
• Development of small cultural-sector enterprises
  based on commercial principles and targeted
  subventions
• Emergence of high-quality and affordable tourist
  services
• Low-cost airlines make visists in the region
  affordable

• Threats
• Subvention-mentality hinders enterpreunership in
  tourism and culture
• Too-high taxes and labour costs slow-down the
  development of tourism
• The number of active artists and authors
  decreases, which leads to the desertification of
  cultural life
• The incompetence of local government officials
  leads to systematic loosing of opportunities
• Rising criminality, homeless dogs in villages,
  and illegal waste deposits become hampering
  factors for tourism in some areas

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Quantitative foresight analysis

• The targets elicited during the first steps of
  the exercise had to be ranked using three
  multicriteria analysis methods REFSET,
  Controlled Goal Attainment and Contracting
  (Trade-off) Cone
• Relative importance factors have been assigned
• Target ranking dynamics has been considered,
  taking into account the momentary state of
  development of the region and cross-impact
  analysis of targets.
• (Nb. these targets were adjusted with the
  Regional Development Strategy)
• Forecasts of the regions population, human
  resources development, economic growth and social
  preferences until 2020 have been taken into
  account

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Results of the dynamic priority analysis for the
Malopolska region
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B. Indications for the authorities

• The tourism marketing strategies of the whole
  region and individual municipalities should be
  effective and mutually co-ordinated
• Investment strategy in tourism should aim at a
  affordable, attractive and complementary system
  of services
• Better promotion of less-known attractions of the
  region
• Better inclusion of the needs of tourism in the
  regional (spatial) planning
• Assuring better accessibility of the region from
  abroad
• Development of information systems about tourism
  in the region, web-based as well as personal
  on-site information

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C. Development of the economic potential of the
region Indications to the authorities (an
output of a dynamic ranking)

• Better exploring the benefits provided by the
  advanced technologies sector
• Active lobbying for attracting large companies to
  establish their research, management and logistic
  centres in Kraków and other cities in the region
• Assuring better co-operation of the RD sector
  and industry
• Development of the higher learning sector (from
  over 100 ths. of students in 2006 to 120 ths. in
  2020)

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Development of specialised services

• Preferred services to be supported by the local
  policies (as a result of dynamic ranking)
• Economic, legal and managerial consulting
• Specialised medical services
• Financial services and investment intermediary
• Organisation of exhibitions, conventions,
  conferences
• Professional and specialised training and adult
  education
• Public relations, media etc.

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Results of foresight analysis the dynamics of
the demografic structure of Malopolska until 2020