ATFS in Your State Taking Ownership of the Future

1
ATFS in Your StateTaking Ownership of the Future
2
In the BeginningAsking the Right Questions

• Who are you?
• What do you do?
• that nobody else does
• that no one else could do
• that you are unlikely to stop doing
• that forms the core
• Why do you do it?
• Define mission in measurable terms
• Identify core competencies

3
Staying on TopThe Encyclopedia Britannica

• Oldest English language encyclopedia
• 15 editions over 225 years
• Sales up 8.1 in the 80s
• Record sales in 1989 of 627 million
• Sold 117,000 copies in 1990 for 1,300 each
• Profitable for 19 of 20 previous years
• Translated from English into many languages
• Heavily invested in specific sales model

4
Race to the BottomThe Encyclopedia Britannica
1992
Britannica says no thanks!
Bill Gates pays a visit
5
Race to the BottomThe Encyclopedia Britannica

• Bill buys Funk and Wagnalls
• Encarta launched with graphics and sound
• Cheap to manufacture and store
• Sells for 99 or bundled free
• Britannica loses 4.6 million in 92, 15 million
  in 93
• Sales drop 53 in four years
• Struggling to re-establish brand
• What happened?

6
Challenge Your Assumptions
Heavier than air flying machines are
impossible. Lord Kelvin, 1895
20 Years Later
Theres no reason for any individual to have a
computer in their home. President of Digital
Equipment, 1977
7 Years Later
We dont like their sound. Guitar groups are
out. A R Director of Decca Records, 1962
1 Year Later
7
Limits to Confidence

• Japanese Fortune Global 500 firms in 1990 111
• McDonalds restaurants worldwide in 1990 11,268
• Passenger deaths worldwide in airline accidents
  6,706
• Nuclear power plants 421
• How old was Martin Luther King 39
• Population in the European Community in 1988
  235 million
• Air distance between London and Tokyo 5,959
  miles
• Movie theaters in France in 1987 5,067
• Patents issued in 1990 96,727
• People in Ireland with current driving licenses
  1.22 million

8
DuPont Reinvents Itself Again
Life Sciences
Knowledge Company
2050
Chemicals, Energy
2005
Growth
Maturity
Birth
1850
Explosives
1802
9
Strategic Forces

• Identify key trends that we know will shape the
  future of forestry in your state
• Known impacts
• Predictable course somewhat
• Identify uncertainties that may or may not shape
  this future
• Uncertain impacts
• Unpredictable outcomes
• Tend to drive alternative futures

10
Strategic Forces

• Examples of trends
• Focus on climate change, energy conservation
• State, municipal budgets shrinking
• Volunteer pools static or declining
• NGO partners financially strapped
• Examples of uncertainties
• Can ecosystem services provided by urban forests
  be aggregated, monetized and traded?
• Where will the future work force come from?
• How will Federal agencies coordinate their
  respective activities?
• Wheres the money coming from?

11
Trends and Uncertainties
Trends
Uncertainties
High
Importance
Predictability
Low
High
12
Trends and Uncertainties
Trends
Uncertainties
High
Importance
Predictability
Low
High
13
Planning Exercise

• Pick 2 key trends and and 2 key uncertainties
• Clarify your vision the kind of future youd
  like to see
• List 3 goals that, if you achieve them, youll
  create the future you want
• Decide on a pathway to reach your goals a
  strategy
• Identify objectives that, when met, provide
  concrete evidence youre reaching your goals

14
Say What?

• Vision
• In our state, family forest owners will earn the
  income they need to stay on the land, from a
  variety of traditional and non-traditional
  sources and be secure in their ability to pass
  their land on to their heirs.
• In our state, ATFS will provide the bulk of
  certified wood to companies which have chains of
  custody.
• In our state, most next generation owners will
  choose to manage their land sustainably for
  multiple benefits.

15
Say What?

• Not a Vision
• In our state, we will complete 100 percent of
  inspections every year.
• In our state, we will hold at least two field
  days and workshops annually.
• In our state, we will train and accredit all
  participating inspecting foresters as needed.

16
Say What?

• Goals
• Landowners in my state will receive adequate
  compensation for the ecosystem services they
  provide.
• The number of owners in our state with a
  management plan will double by 2013.
• We will seek to minimize impact of the fiscal
  downturn on forest owners.
• The number of certified members in our Tree Farm
  System will increase by 50 percent.
• State law will support multi-generational
  stewardship of forests, and permit owners to
  manage their lands in a manner that meets their
  objectives.

17
Say What?

• Not Goals
• We will continue to recruit landowners for the
  program.
• We will offer a full roster of recognition
  programs.
• We will publish a newsletter.
• We will maintain and support our web site.

18
Say What?

• Strategy
• Build partnerships with other organizations
  local conservation groups, farm groups, PLT
• Focus all outreach activities toward areas with
  large numbers of non-managing owners
• Make Tree Farm advocates part of state forestry
  and forest owner networks
• Adopt social marketing principles to all
  communications

19
Say What?

• Objectives/Activities
• Create joint legislative agenda with allies and
  partners, present at state capitol day.
• Create and make available activist database, link
  to AFF grass-roots action web site
• Follow-up survey with all workshop attendees to
  assess their progress in implementation
• Expand roster of trained inspectors
• Achieve 100 percent of inspection/re-inspection
  goals
• Call Before You Cut campaign

20
Putting it Together
21
Putting it Together