MetroFuture Scenario One

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MetroFuture Process, Products, and Lessons
Learned
Marc Draisen, Executive Director, Metropolitan
Area Planning Council Boston, Massachusetts Prese
ntation to the Alliance for Regional
Stewardship, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida November 16,
2006
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The Greater Boston Region

• Metropolitan area of over 3 million residents
• Diverse communities urban, suburban, semi-rural
  
• Rich in history, natural beauty, culture,
  academic/medical institutions
• Major challenges
• Cost of housing
• Availability of skilled workers
• Economic inequality
• Loss of open space
• Transportation

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About MAPC

• Regional planning agency for 101 cities and towns
  in Metropolitan Boston
• Responsible for creating comprehensive regional
  plan
• Promotes inter-local cooperation and advocates
  for smart growth
• Staff includes planners, data
• analysts, and specialists in
• mapping, municipal management
• and legislative specialists
• Governed by Council of municipal
  representatives, gubernatorial appointees, and
  heads of state
• and City of Boston agencies

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MAPC What do we do?

• Local and Subregional Planning Projects
• Transportation Planning
• Public Safety and Disaster Preparation
• Collective Purchasing
• Data and GIS
• Environmental Review
• Regional Growth Plan

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Why MetroFuture?

• MetroPlan 2000 (created in 1990) had limited
  impact.
• The new approach large-scale public
  participation throughout the entire project,
  using technology to illustrate the impacts of
  different choices
• Goals
• A clear vision for the region
• A plan that is compelling and achievable
• A strategy for implementation
• A constituency of plan builders to help develop
  the plan and advocate for its recommendations in
  a variety of venues

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Project Phases

• Select the best alternative and make it happen

• Evaluate the alternatives against the visions

• Work with others to create alternative futures

• Create a model projecting regions likely future,
  through 2030, if current trends persist

• Talk to people about their vision for the region

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MetroFuture Study Area
New Hampshire
The Greater Boston Region

• 164 Communities
• 101 communities in MAPC region
• Plus 63 communities in larger transportation
  planning region
• 4.3 million people
• 2.3 million jobs
• Diverse communities and people

Rte.128
I-495
MAPC
I-90
Rhode Island
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Metro Boston Community Types
Greater Boston Region Communities

• Inner Core Communities
• Boston, Cambridge, and surrounding streetcar
  suburbs
• Recent housing boom, but almost no undeveloped
  land
• Regional Urban Centers
• Growing immigrant communities
• Recovering from disinvestment
• Maturing Suburbs
• Moderate-density residential neighborhoods
• Dwindling supply of developable land
• Developing Suburbs
• Having been growing very rapidly
• Plenty of vacant land available for development

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Phase 1- Visioning

• Visioning Phase
• 2,000 participants
• 30 visioning workshops
• Newspaper survey, telephone poll
• Review of 250 existing municipal plans
• Region-wide visioning event

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Phase 1- Visioning

• Our visioning work yielded
• 3,000 vision statements
• 42 visioning themes
• 5 study areas
• 3 major reports
• Visions Across the Region video

A Tapestry of Visions A summary of results from
MetroFuture visioning workshops
Starting Points for a Regional Vision A review
of municipal plans in Metro Boston
The Resonance of Regionalism A report on
MetroFuture polling and survey efforts
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Phase 2 - Current Trends
Core Model, Influence Diagram

• MetroFuture Model
• Population employment
• Land use
• Water supply and demand
• Labor supply
• Municipal finance
• Open space
• Transportation demand
• Trends are linked to one another

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Phase 2 - Current Trends

• Major products
• Population and employment distribution, for use
  in regional transportation plan
• 2-page fact sheets about major topics
  population, employment, housing
• Slide show and presentation about the project and
  projections

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Our Changing Population
Population Growth United States vs. Boston Region

• Relatively slow growth
• U.S. projected to grow 28
• Greater Boston Region projected to grow 11
• Modest population gains may be threatened by
  outmigration, aging population

United States
Greater Boston Region
(millions)
(millions)
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Phase 2 - Current Trends

• Decreases in all age groups under 55
• Over-55 population increases 75
• Implications for housing demand, social services,
  transportation, municipal finance

Population (millions)
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Our Changing Population

• Who do you see on our Regional Street?
• Year Year 2000 2030
• 82 White 69
• 18 Black, Hispanic, or Asian 31
• 15 Born in another country 23
• 25 Under 20 years old 23
• 21 Over the age of 55 33

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Phase 2 - Current Trends
Developing Suburbs

• Developing Suburbs
• 36 of regions projected population growth
• 79 of new housing will be single family homes on
  one-acre lots
• Loss of 85,000 acres of open space, farmland
• Most Developing Suburbs will produce fewer than
  100 apartments/condos

Ipswich
Middleton
Carlisle
Stow
Hopkinton
Dover
Hanover
Franklin
Plymouth
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Phase 2 - Current Trends
Mismatch by Education Level, 2000 - 2030
Overall labor shortage of 170,000 workers by
2030 Increasing jobs-skills mismatch May inhibit
growth in high-tech industries Creates
opportunity for economic advancement
Surplus of workers
Shortage of workers
Graduate Degree
Bachelors Degrees
High School or Associate Degree
No High School Degree
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Phase 2 - Current Trends

• Dependence on property tax may increase
• 54 of municipal budgets in 2000
• 62 of municipal budgets in 2030
• Increase in fixed costs health care, pensions,
  debt service
• State aid increasingly earmarked for schools
• Less money for quality of life services

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Phase 2 - Current Trends
Water Demand vs. Permit Limits,2030
In 2030, 50 communities may exceed Water
Management Act allowances 40 may exceed these
allowances by more than 100,000 gallons a
day Potential impacts on habitat, water quality,
cost of water, growth rates
Deficit up to 100,000 GPD
Deficit 100,000 500,000 GPD
Deficit gt500,000 GPD
Adequate capacity
MWRA System
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Phase 2 - Current Trends
Traffic Congestion, 2000(Vehicles/Capacity)
Traffic congestion...

lt.25
0.25 0.5
0.5 0.75
0.75 1.25
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Phase 2 - Current Trends
Traffic congestion may get worse Vehicle trips
up 15 Driven by increasing number of trips from
outside the region Vehicle miles traveled up
17 Gasoline consumption up 20
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Phase 3 - Alternative Futures

• Scenario Development Process
• Nearly 1,000 participants since January 2006
• 70 briefings
• Two large-scale working sessions in June
• Guided by a task force of experts, public
  officials, practitioners

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Phase 3 - Alternative Futures

• Alternative Futures Workbook
• Used to guide table discussion at June working
  sessions
• 10 questions about allocation of growth, housing
  types, priorities
• Responses were entered into a simplified computer
  model at each table to generate real-time
  feedback on implications of different choices

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Phase 3 - Alternative Futures

• Three alternatives to Current Trends Scenario,
  based on modifications to
• Regional population distribution
• Land use and housing types
• Educational attainment
• Water consumption rates and conservation
  practices
• Open space preservation
• State aid distribution and municipal expenditures

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Phase 4 - Preference Selection

• December Working Sessions Which Way to a
  Greater Boston Region?
• Participants will explore and evaluate one of the
  alternative scenarios to understand relationships
  and tradeoffs
• Full-fledged Community Viz model at each table
• Participants will vote via electronic keypads,
  indicating preferred scenario based on their
  exploration of the model

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Phase 4 - Preference Selection

• Community Viz slider bars
• Allow participants to change the assumptions for
  a particular scenario, and see the result

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Phase 4 - Preference Selection

• Community Viz interface
• Display impacts of different assumptions, using
  charts, graphs, and maps

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www.metrofuture.org