for Board Show 6 June

1
How are we Approaching our Region and the
Outlook? Mark Schweitzer Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland AUBEROctober 18, 2004
2
Outline

• Renewed Focus on the Region
• The Fourth Federal Reserve District
• The Business Cycle and Current Situation
• Expanding our Availability

3
Federal Reserve
4
Distribution of Employment -- 1970
Percent of total
5
Distribution of Employment -- 1980
Percent of total
6
Distribution of Employment -- 1990
Percent of total
7
Distribution of Employment -- 2000
Percent of total
8
BUSINESS CYCLE PATTERN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
Percent change from previous peak
2001-
Months from previous peak
9
BUSINESS CYCLE PATTERN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
Percent change from previous peak
2001-
Months from previous peak
10
EMPLOYMENT
Millions of workers
Workers
Fourth District (right scale)
United States (left scale)
11
CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
March 2001 to July 2004
U.S. Household Employment Growth 1.4
Less than or equal to 0.0
Greater than 0.0 and less than 0.8
Greater than or equal to 0.8 and less than 2.0
Greater than or equal to 2.0
12
BUSINESS CYCLE PATTERN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Change from previous peak
Average
Average range
2001 -
Months from previous peak
13
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Percent
United States
Fourth District
14
CHANGE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
March 2001 to July 2004
U.S. Average Change 1.2
Less than or equal to 0.0
Greater than 0.0 and less than 0.8
Greater than or equal to 0.8 and less than 1.5
Greater than or equal to 1.5
15
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Percent
United States
Fourth District
16
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES MARCH 2001
US average 4.3 p
Below US average
About US average (4.0 to 4.6)
Above US average
More than double US average
17
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES CHANGES MAR 01- MAR 02
US average 1.4 pp change
Below 0.9 pp
0.9 to 1.5 pp
Greater than 1.5 to 2.4 pp
Greater than 2.4 pp
18
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES CHANGES MAR 01- MAR 03
US average 1.5 pp change
Below 0.9 pp
0.9 to 1.5 pp
Greater than 1.5 to 2.4 pp
Greater than 2.4 pp
19
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES CHANGES MAR 01- JUL 04
US average 1.2 pp change
Below 0.9 pp
0.9 to 1.5 pp
Greater than 1.5 to 2.4 pp
Greater than 2.4 pp
20
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES JULY 2004
US average 5.5 p
Below 4.0 percent
4.0 to 4.6 percent (about March 2001 US average)
Above 4.6 to 8.6 percent
More than 8.6 percent
21
Fourth District Beigebook

• Manufacturing has experienced a profound scaling
  back over the last 5 years
• Employment reduced sharply
• Capital spending held very low
• Turning around only over the past few months
• Manufacturers outlook
• Positive , but cautious about the future
• Employment gains likely to be limited
• Productivity growth continuing

22
Resources

• http//www.clevelandfed.org
• Economic Trends
• Economic Commentaries
• Speeches
• Beige book
• We are improving our resources as well
• new regional website
• new charting feature