Opening Forum Speech

1
The spirit of TELECOM Past, present and
future Yoshio UTSUMI ITU Secretary-General, TELEC
OM 99 INTERACTIVE 99, FORUM Opening
2
Three snapshots of telecom development 1995,
1999, 2003

• The state of the industry
• Fixed-lines
• Mobile
• The Internet
• The state of the market
• Increasing competition
• Private sector participation
• Emerging global alliances
• The shape of things to come
• The changing telecom development gap
• 3rd generation mobiles
• One hundred years of telephones

3
Growth trends fixed-lines, mobilephones and
estimated Internet users, millions
Fixed-line telephones
1'200
Mobilephones
Estimated Internet users
1'000
800
600
400
200
0
Tele-
1996
1997
1998
Tele-
2000
2001
2002
Tele-
com95
com99
com03
Note Columns show actual and projected users at
end of year.Source ITU.
4
The changing pie Global telecom service revenue,
1998
Domestic fixed-
Other (incl. Internet, leased lines, telex),
10.6
line revenues,
59.3
Mobile
service
revenues,
21.2
International
revenues, 8.9
1998 Telecom service revenue. Total US724bn
Source ITU World Telecommunication Development
Report 1999 Mobile cellular
5
Projection of revenue growth (USbn)
1'000
Actual
Projected
900
Other (e.g., Internet, leased lines, telex)
800
700
Mobile service revenues
600
500
Service revenue (US bn)
400
International
300
200
Domestic fixed-line service revenues
100
0
Tele-com
1996
1997
1998
Tele-com
2000
2001
2002
Tele-com
1995
1999
2003
Source ITU World Telecommunication Development
Report 1999 Mobile cellular
6
Internet hosts (million), actual and projected
180
150
120
85
56.2
36.7
26.1
16.7
8.2
Tele-
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jul-98
Tele-
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Tele-
com95
com99
com03
Note Columns show estimated Internet hosts at
July of each year.Source ITU Challenges to
the Network Internet for Development, 1999,
Internet Software Consortium (www.isc.org),
RIPE (www.ripe.net).
7
Infrastructure capacity and costs, TransAtlantic
cables, 1983-2000
100'000
100'000'000
paths), growing by
10'000'000
10'000
1'000'000
100'000
1'000
10'000
100
1'000
Cost per voice path (US)
Cost per voice path
Capacity (voice paths)
100
10
(US), declining by
10
41 p.a.
1
1
Source ITU, TeleGeography Inc., FCC. Note
Voice-path numbers assume a compression ratio of
51 to number of circuits.
8
The state of the market

• Increasing competition
• Around two-thirds of telecom subscribers now have
  a choice of operator
• Dominantly private ownership
• 19 out of top 20 top public telecom operators are
  partially or fully private-owned
• Independent regulators
• There are currently 84 independent regulators
  (only 12 in 1990)

9
Increasing competition By no. of countries, by
service, 1995-2003
Local
80
Countries
Long distance
70
International
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Telecom
1997
Telecom
2001
Telecom
1995
1999
2003
Source ITU Trends in Telecom Reform
Convergence and Regulation, 1999.
10
Declining prices for mobile access, global
average, in US, 1992-98
Note CAGR Compound Annual Growth rate.Source
ITU World Telecommunication Development Report
1999 Mobile cellular
11
Ownership status of the incumbent
160
Private
State-owned
Countries
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991
1993
1995
1999
Source ITU Trends in Telecom Reform
Convergence and Regulation, 1999.
12
Emerging global alliances, shares of intl
traffic market
ATT/BT, 17.2
Others,
47.3
Total, 1997 81.2 bn minutes
MCI WorldCom,
Telefonica, TP,
11.1
Cable Wireless, 4.7
Unisource, 5.4
Note Traffic shares relate to minutes of
outgoing traffic from members of each
alliance.Source ITU/TeleGeography Inc.
Direction of Traffic, 1999 Trading Telecom
Minutes
13
The development gap is shrinking, but also
shifting
TELECOM 95
TELECOM 99
Share of low and lower-middle income countries
in Telephone main lines Mobile
subscribers Internet host computers
21
27
6
12
0.7
1.7
Source ITU World Telecommunication Indicators
Database.
14
Forecasting to 2003 Projecting forward current
trends

• By 2003, there could be
• Telephone lines 1.1 billion
• Mobilephone subscribers 0.9 billion
• Internet users 500 million
• These could account for
• Intl voice/fax traffic 190 billion minutes
• Total voice/fax traffic 2 trillion minutes
• Internet Protocol traffic 2 trillion minutes
  
• Services market around US1 trillion
• Equipment market around US350 billion

15
The race for 3rd Generation mobiles IMT-2000
Video Streaming
Video Streaming
2,000
1G
2G
3G
Still
Still
Imaging
Imaging
384
Audio Streaming
Audio Streaming
144
Text Messaging
Text Messaging
Data Transmission Speed - kbit/s
128
Voice
Voice
64
JPEG
Still Photos
E-Commerce
32
9.6
0
Time
Source Adapted from Motorola.
16
100 years of telephones
Log scale 1910-2010
Normal scale 1990-2010
2'000
1'000
1'500
Fixed
Fixed
1'000
10
Mobile
Mobile
500
0
0
1910
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000
10
1990
2000
2010
Source ITU, World Telecommunication Development
Report Mobile Cellular 1999.
17
10 October 1999

• Formal opening of TELECOM 99 FORUM
• Release of new ITU reports
• World Telecom Development Report Mobile Cellular
• Direction of Traffic Trading Telecom Minutes
• Trends in Telecom Reform Convergence
  Regulation
• Internet for Development

http//www.itu.int/ti