Thematic Summary I Perceptions of Climate

1
Thematic Summary I Perceptions of Climate

• Roberta Balstad
• CRED Annual Meeting
• Columbia University
• 3 May 2007

2
Session Overview

• Summary of CRED work on perceptions of climate at
  the mid-point of the Center
• No formal presentation on projects
• Panel Discussion
• Addressing issues that cut across projects

3
Three Components of Climate Perceptions

• Detection
• Framing
• Attribution
• All are related to decision making

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Detection Types of Climate and Climate Change

• Seasonal framework
• Single extreme events (blizzards, drought,
  floods)
• Variability around a mean but without detectable
  patterns
• Broad patterns and processes (perceptible
  patterns of change, trends, e.g., glacial
  melting)
• Secondary and tertiary impacts of climate
  processes (ecological, agricultural, economic,
  and health impacts)

5
The External Influences on Framing Perceptions of
Climate

• Personal observations
• Expectations based on experience
• Information/education obtained from
  trusted/respected external sources
• Group interactions/dynamics shape interpretations
  of observations and experiences
• Media/advertising/government policy create
  expectations
• Economic pressures and consequences

6
Attribution

• Attribution or interpretation is influenced by
• Experience (individual and collective)
• Expectation (individual and collective)
• Authoritative Interpretations and interactions
  (group and authority figures)

7
CRED Projects Addressing Perceptions of Climate

• Perceived Warming in Alaska, Florida, and New
  York City
• Living under Climate Uncertainty Agricultural
  Decision Making on the Great Plains
• Decision Making Under Risk of Extreme Climate
  Events Among Farmers in the NE US
• Perceptions of Glacier Retreat

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Status of Projects

• Years 1-3
• Perceived Warming in AK, FL, NYC
• Years 3-4
• Living under Climate Uncertainty in Grasslands
• Years 4-5
• Glacial Retreat
• Hudson Valley Agriculture

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Goals and FindingsAlaska Perceptions of Warming

• Goals
• To examine the role of experiential factors in
  climate change risk perception, policy
  preferences and adaptation behaviors in a region
  currently experiencing significant climate
  change.
• Findings
• Preliminary results have found that Alaskans have
  detected the change in local climate
• Attribute this change to anthropogenic climate
  change
• Talk about global warming as part of everyday
  conversation
• Believe global warming is a current threat to
  Alaska
• Believe global warming will have significant
  impacts on both Alaska and the world
• Yet, Alaskans are no more worried than the
  American public as a whole
• Fewer perceive global warming as a serious threat
  to themselves or their communities than the
  American public does and,
• Half see it as long-term problem requiring more
  study before acting.

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Goals and FindingsGrasslands

• Grasslands Goals
• To examine historical evidence for agricultural
  decision making, testing ideas about experiential
  vs. analytical DM, the finite pool of worry, the
  role of social goals, promotion/prevention, and
  single action bias using these data.
• To understand the real-life and over the long
  term context for agricultural decision making
  under climate uncertainty.
• To examine agricultural behavior under periods of
  weather variability in the 19th century and
  under a single, major climate event (the drought
  of the 1930s)
• Findings
• Climate impacts are filtered and shaped by
  social, economic, and technological conditions
• 19th century farmers made both active and passive
  decisions and the role of climate change, public
  policy, and economic pressures played different
  roles in each.
• The federal government played a continuing role
  in mitigating climate impacts in agricultural
  areas
• The past can be used to test behavioral theory
  and also to suggest ideas for testing in labs

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Related CRED Activities and Research

• Learning and Information Processing Session II
• Experiential vs. Analytical Basis for Decision
  Making
• Social Goals and Interactions Session III
• Influence of social groups on perception,
  framing, and attribution
• Participatory Processes Session IV
• Group processes of detection and framing

12
Discussion Panel

• Kenny Broad
• Brad Lyon
• Roly Russell
• Ben Orlove
• Elke Weber