Global Climate Change: Predictions 1

1
Global Climate Change Predictions 1

• Virtually Certain Facts
• Greenhouse gases increase, especially
  tropospheric CO2 ( this will result in heating
  of the planet) (0.55oC)
• Decreases in lower stratospheric ozone ( 1oC)
• Increases in sulfate particles
• Virtually Certain Projections
• Stratosphere will continue to cool
• Water vapor in the lower atmosphere will increase
• Very Probable Projections

2
Global Climate Change Predictions 2

• Very Probable Projections
• Temperature will increase (1.5 to 4.5 oC).
• Sea level rise of 5025 cm by year 2100.
• Precipitation should increase 2 per 1oC of
  global warming.
• Warming will not be uniform (higher latitudes of
  northern hemisphere)
• Probable Projections
• Summer soil moisture should decrease
• Precipitation increases at higher latitudes
  should decrease ocean's salinity and, therefore,
  suppress overturning circulation
• Deviation in temperatures from mean should not
  change

3
GCC Effects on biological systems

• What are my assumptions?

4
GCC Effects on biological systems
Guiding principles

• Any system has sensitive steps, parts or
  processes
• Cells, organs, trees, ecosystems are all part of
  a continuum
• Most of the time trees are under some type of
  stress

5
GCC Guiding Principles
Explanation of sensitive steps, parts or processes

• Parts of the life cycle - young to old, seed to
  seed
• Example of lime tree in Lake District
• Example of black spruce in NWT
• Parts of succession/stand development - cycle of
  stands, ecosystems
• Parts of the organism (e.g., buds, growing
  leaves)
• Key growth or metabolic or developmental
  processes (e.g., late frost, dormancy, second
  flushes, frost hardiness)

6
GCC Guiding Principles Ecosystems
Explanation of sensitive steps, parts or processes

• Example from the northern hardwood - boreal forest

7
GCC Guiding Principles Ecosystems
Explanation of sensitive steps, parts or processes
8
GCC Guiding Principles Watershed
Changes Precipitation, evapo-transpiration, rain
on snow floods, groundwater, low flows, stream
temperatures, changes in vegetation,
disturbances, etc.
9
GCC Guiding Principles Watershed

• Study by Schindler et al. 1996
• From 1970 - 1990 monitored temperature (up) and
  precipitation (down) at ELA
• Boreal forest (jack pine black spruce, lots of
  lakes)
• Last fire was 1870.

10
GCC Guiding Principles Watershed

• Mean annual air temp increased by 1.6oC, lake
  temperature increased
• Rainfall decreased
• Ice free period increased
• Evaporation increased by 50
• Radiation increased
• 2 fires occurred
• Streamflow decreased
• Number days without flow increased

11
GCC Guiding Principles Globe

• Terrestrial Component (biome, age)
• Soils (deposition, decomposition)
• Land use
• Oceans

12
GCC Guiding Principles Scaling

• Process
• Rules Variability, feedback, compensation,
  synergy

Example with defoliation
Large
Space
Small
Time - long
Time - short