Status of CCCma Climate and Earth System Models

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Status of CCCma Climate and Earth System
Models Gregory M. Flato Canadian Centre for
Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Climate
Research Division, Science and Technology Branch
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• The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1
• the culmination of several years of research,
  much of it involving various university
  collaborators in multi-institution network
  projects, e.g.
• CGC3M Canadian Global Coupled Carbon Climate
  Model
• MOC2 Modelling of Clouds and Chemistry
• CAFC Cloud Aerosol Feedbacks and Climate
• CMAM and CSPARC Middle-atmosphere dynamics and
  ozone modelling

(slightly updated version of our AR4 model will
upgrade if possible)
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gt3000 yr control run
year
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Transient response of CanESM1 to 1850-2000
emissions
380
a)
370
360
350
340
CO2 (ppm)
330
320
310
300
290
280
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
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The Flying Carpet illustration of zonal mean
CO2 concentration
b) CanESM1
a) Observation-based
(based on 42 stations)
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Ozone
Eyring et al., 2007

• Still on track to produce 3-D ozone fields
  (stratosphere and troposphere) from the
  middle-atmosphere version of our coupled model
  for two primary GHG scenarios, using T47 version.
  Runs to start early in new year. Experimental
  runs underway now.
• Will contribute to CCMVal also, which may
  supercede above.
• We are aiming for a fully coupled model with
  both carbon and ozone shortly thereafter
  (resources permitting).

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• The Canadian Global Climate Model CanGCM4

Atmospheric Component
Sulphur
Carbon
Natural
1hydrophobic and hydrophylic components 2accumulat
ion and coarse modes
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Atmospheric component of CanGCM4
We have been active in CFMIP, and will continue
this
Cloud amount from satellite (CERES) vs. model
low cloud (ptop gt 700 hPa)
middle cloud (700 hPa gt ptop gt 500 hPa)
high cloud (ptop lt 500 hPa)
Courtesy J. Cole
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Oceanic component of CanGCM4
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Seasonal forecasting

• CHFP1 ? development exercise
• - T63 AR4 CGCM (AGCM3 OGCM3)
• - Simple initialization by SST nudging
• - 12 month forecasts 1972-2001
• - Modest skill provides baseline for testing
  improvements
• CHFP2 ? 2009
• - T63 AGCM3/4 OGCM4
• - OGCM initialization off-line assimilation
  of ocean reanalysis ensemble
• - AGCM initialization from reanalysis
• - Land surface initialization off-line using
  bias-corrected forcing
• - Contribution to WGSIP CHFP
• Resources permitting, we hope to extend this to
  decadal prediction for CMIP5 (DHFP).

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Regional Climate Modelling

• Currently developing a new Canadian Regional
  Climate Model.
• joint effort of CCCma and RPN
• AGCM4 physics coupled to GEM dynamical core
  (i.e. same physics package in global and regional
  model)
• this will augment runs to be done by Ouranos
  using previous CRCM.

Nested Regional Climate Model
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• Will have CGCM and ESM (may be the same code if
  all goes well)
• Resolution T63 primarily, with some runs at T128
  (we hope) ocean at 1o and 0.5o respectively.
• Will do middle-atmosphere/ozone runs (T47),
  CCMVal, etc.
• Will continue with CFMIP and expect to run ISCCP
  and other simulators.
• Will save a lot of high-frequency data for RCM
  b.c.
• Intend to do all top priority and most of high
  priority CMIP5 runs, plus more as time permits
• Hope to do decadal prediction runs (same
  resolution as long-term runs)
• Will probably not do high-res time slices (at
  least, not in time)
• Will not do PMIP runs will not do aqua-planet
• Resolution is primarily limited by computer
  resources which runs we do is limited by people.
• Some runs will be ready to start as soon as RCPs
  are available, bulk of runs to start late 2009 or
  early 2010.