Welfare Reform Interventions: Employment Outcomes, 199003

1
Welfare Reform Interventions Employment
Outcomes, 1990-03

• Meta-Analysis of Controlled Studies
  Social-Structural Characteristics, Rather Than
  Personal Ones, Ought To Be The Focus of Welfare
  Policies

2
Introduction

• Historical and Theoretical Contexts
• 20th Century Social Welfare Policy Developments
  Recent Reforms

3
Recent Historical Context

• Early to Mid-1990s
• Consistent with conservative political agendas
• Problem Guaranteed incomes act as a significant
  work disincentive.
• Solution Policy reforms ought to focus on
  shaping the behaviors of individuals.

4
Distal Historical Context

• 1930s 1960s Economic social upheaval
• Consistent with liberal political agendas
• Problem Social, political and economic forces
  cause cycles of joblessness.
• Solution Governments ought to respond to the
  resultant human suffering. Policies ought to
  focus on shaping the structures of society.

5
Diametrically Opposed Political Theories Which
is Valid?

• Conservative Theory
• Welfare benefits (dependence) cause labor market
  withdrawal (joblessness).
• Liberal Theory
• Joblessness causes welfare use (and dependence,
  if the primarily social determinants
  persist).

6
What of Social Science Theory?

• The Bell Curve
• Welfare dependence and related social problems
  are caused by personal, genetic, even racial
  factors.
• The Skewed Curve
• Welfare determinants are related to the
  inequitable distributions of opportunities (e.g.,
  education, jobs).

FOR MORE INFO...
Herrnstein, R. J., Murray, C. (1994). The bell
curve. Wilson, W. J. (1996). When work
disappears. (1987). The truly disadvantaged.
7
Meta-Analytic Test of Theories

• Joblessness ? Welfare
• Joblessness Fertility
• or Welfare OOW Births
• Teen pregnancy
• Sole female HH
• Joblessness accounted for 25-fold more
  variability than did the availability and
  generosity of welfare benefits.

8
Research Questions Another Meta-Analytic Test of
Theories

• How important has the availability of jobs been
  in determining the success of various welfare
  reform interventions?
• Success facilitating the movement of people
  from welfare to work

9
Method Study Selection

• - Studies of any specific welfare reform policy
  intervention (AFDC/TANF)
• - Employment outcomes
• - 1990 to the present
• - Published and unpublished
• - United States and Canada
• - Randomized and quasi-experiments
• - Power to detect a 5 difference
• - 47 studies for meta-analysis

10
Augmentation of Meta-Database

• Each study sample was joined with its
  corresponding area unemployment rate.
• - US Dept. Labor, Statistics Canada
• - Seasonally-adjusted average quarterly rate over
  study follow-up periods
• - Rates calculated according to each studys
  sampling frame by states, counties or
  metropolitan areas

11
Analytic Methods

• Comparison of intervention and control/comparison
  groups on adjusted employment rates
• - Employment rates adjusted for study samples
  (Mantel-Haenszel)
• - Predictors of rate differences identified with
  regression models

12
Meta-Analytic Hypotheses

• Social-structural characteristics will
  significantly predict program success.
• 1. The availability of jobs in study areas will
  be significantly associated with the success of
  welfare reform interventions.
• 2. The programmatic availability of child care
  will be significantly associated with the success
  of welfare interventions.

13
Meta-Analytic Main Effect

• Overall weighted (by sample size) effect of
  specific welfare reform interventions
• Aggregate Across-Study Employment rate
• Intervention group 51
• Control/comp. gp. 47
• Rate difference 4

14
Moderators of the Main Effect

• Available jobs in areas and programmatic
  availability of child care were both
  significantly associated with study employment
  rate differences (intervention vs. control/comp.
  groups).
• Adjusted rate differences
• Jobs 18
• Child care 25

15
Conclusion

• The availability of jobs ought to be emphasized
  as we reconsider welfare policies.

16
Politically Liberal Welfare Assumptions Better
Fit Reality

• This studys findings (along with he
  preponderance of historical social scientific
  evidence) support the notion that
  social-structural characteristics such as the
  lack of good jobs are far weightier explanations
  for welfare dependence and labor market
  withdrawal, as well as for most purported
  welfare problems, than are personal-behavioral
  ones.

17
Policy Implications in Diametric Opposition to
Political Realities

• Human capital and economic developmental
  approaches, rather than personally punitive
  approaches are needed.
• Making good jobs available to all will require
  integrated multi-level social policies not
  merely welfare policies per se, but also
  economic, education, and health care policies.

18
Policy Implications in Diametric Opposition to
Political Realities

• Policy makers, however, seem headed down the
  road most traveled.
• For example Congress will probably fully
  reauthorization TANF during the coming year.
• - Freeze TANF benefits
• - Increase work requirements
• - Diminish supports such as child care
• - Restrict education/training programs

19
Future Research and Advocacy

• Ample sound evidence exists for the rationale
  steerage of future social welfare policies.
• Effective advocacy will be required to ensure
  that such decisions are not based on the mere ebb
  and flow of political tides.