Global Warming

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Global Warming

• Is it happening?
• Whats causing it?
• What are the solutions?

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QUESTION 1 is GW happening today?
QUESTION 1 Is global warming real?
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Greenhouse effect
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CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, past 1000
yrs. CO2 is one of the most important
greenhouse gases that trap heat. Note the
year, 1800, when the increase began.
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Same graph, extended over 400,000 yrs--4 ice
ages.Read graph from right to left.Note that
the recent increase in CO2 is unprecedented and
NOT part of a natural cycle.
Present interglacial period
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The cause mostly fossil fuels
ITS ALL ABOUT ENERGY!
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Temps since 1860---
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Temp since 1000

• ---and
• since
• 1000,
• with
• future
• scenarios

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Glacier nat park, Montanna-1
Glacier National Park, Montana, is melting.
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-3
Glacier National Park 1850 150 named
glaciers. 2007 26. 2030 0 expected
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S Cascade Glacier, Washington, 1928, 1979, 2003.
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Alaska
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Austria
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Arctic melt extent, 1979 and 2003
Expected to be ice-free in summer by 2030. Oct
2007 A big acceleration of the melting process
was reported. Arctic ice could be in an abrupt,
irreversible decline. Maybe we are reaching the
tipping point. Reflectivity feedback creates a
vicious circle that could have serious
consequences for Greenland.
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Greenland melt extent
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James Hansen, NASAs chief climatologist
leading expert on global warming Earth could
pass a tipping point during next 10 to 20 yrs
that would initiate irreversible melting of the
Greenland and W Antarctic ice caps, raising sea
levels by 50 feet over the next few centuries and
produce a new planet. We could see 15-ft
sea-level rises by the end of this century.
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Is this what you want for your grandchildren?It
s a moral issue!
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Greenland ice is melting
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Antarctic ice is melting
Cracks like this are appearing in ice shelves in
ever greater numbers.
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Melting of either Greenland or W Antarctic ice
sheet would raise sea levels by 25 feet.

• Permanently flooded NE coast cities include
• Boston
• Providence
• New York
• Philadelphia
• Baltimore
• Washington DC

In Florida Jacksonville Tampa St
Petersburg Ft. Myers Naples Fort
Lauderdale Miami The Keys
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Global warming is here now!
The number of category 4 5 hurricanes has
increased by 80 during past 30 yrs. Ark
hunters have seen a big drop in migratory birds,
due to warmer winters north of us. Widespread
increase in tree mortality rates in Western U.S.
due to warming, decreased water. pH of entire
ocean is dropping due to CO2 absorption affects
corals, shellfish. Many specific reports of
range shifts of biological species tropical
plants insects, 14 mammal species in western
U.S., northern fish, Canadian pine beetle, coral
reefs, etc. Forest fires are increasing, as
predicted. Dry spells are more prolonged, as
predicted. Snowpack is reduced, as predicted.
More rainfall, more extreme rainfall, as
predicted. Polar Bear now listed as
endangered. Bacterial blooms in rivers,
lakes, coastal waters. ETC!
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QUESTION 2 Whats causing it?
When we look at the patterns of global temp
changes and other changes (regional temps,
melting ice, rainfall, etc.) ..
(a) the past 150 years
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we find that natural sources (sun, volcanoes,
etc) cannot explain the patterns or the speed of
change, but human-caused greenhouse gases do.

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  It is unequivocal that Earths climate is
  warming, and very likely that human activities
  are the major driver.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Spons by U.N. World Meteorological Org
• 3000 scientists compile the 6-yr reports
• Based on tens of thousands of peer-reviewed
  scientific papers published in hundreds of
  scientific journals
• Results arrived at by consensus
• So its a very conservative document

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The major U.S. carbon polluters
Electric Power 41
Transportation 33
3/4 from coal
3/4 from cars and trucks
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COAL

• New coal rush
• 150 planned US plants
• 1400 worldwide!
• 1 plant 1 million cars

SOLUTIONS

• Energy efficiency alternative energy sources
• Carbon capture storage! (50 price incr)
• Congress should mandate CCS

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CARS

• U.S. cars 25 mpg,
• emit 6 tons of CO2 / yr,
• 3 times the cars weight!

SOLUTIONS

• 40 mpg by 2012, 50 mpg by 2020 (hybrids today)
• Congress proposes only 35 mpg by 2020!
• Plug-in hybrids, attached to renewable
  electricity
• Most economists best solution is gasoline tax
• Cost of externalities 4-20 per gallon!
• Trains 6 times as E-eff as cars, use
  electricity.

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QUESTION 3 What are the solutions?Ans
Non-carbon energy sources
1. Efficiency2. Renewables3. Nuclear power
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The best choice Energy efficiency!
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Light rail for NW Arkansas!
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Renewables Wind
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Photovoltaics
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Solar-thermal electricity
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Active solar heating
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Passive (or direct) solar
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Geothermal energy
For electricity
For heating cooling
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Biofuels
From corn today. With research, we will get
biofuels from
switchgrass
and agri waste
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Also Nuclear power
One of the 9 nuclear power plants in China, where
many more are planned.

• No greenhouse gases !
• It has serious drawbacks (proliferation is the
  most serious)
• But MUCH safer for the planet than fossil fuels.

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Kyoto agreement

• Europe 8 reductions during 1990-2012.
• US rejects Kyoto, headed for 30 increase
  1990-2012. But this might change soon--stay
  tuned!
• China, India, etc reject Kyoto, increasing
  their emissions.
• Kyoto is only a start (barely).

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Sir David King, UKs chief scientific advisor,
many other scientists

• We have increased CO2 in the atm from 280 ppm to
  385 ppm.
• Impacts at 450 ppm will be dangerous well reach
  this in 20 yr at present rate.

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Whats needed

• At least 60 global red. by at least 2050.
• World must converge on 1.5 tons / person-yr
• India emits 1 ton / person-yr
• --can increase GHGs by 50
• US emits over 20 tons / person-yr
• --must reduce GHGs by 90
• Europe reduce GHGs by 80.
• Industrialized nations will buy emission rights
  from developing nations.

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Thank you
THANK YOU
ART HOBSON ahobson_at_uark.edu
Were all in this together!
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List

• Have car-free days
• walk to work
• bicycle to work
• live near your work
• car-pool
• buy a fuel-efficient car
• support higher gas tax
• question "need" for new roads
• avoid big-box stores
• support buses regional rail
• support sidewalks trails
• support high impact fees
• support compact communities
• support infill
• conserve electricity
• conserve paper
• conserve water
• use compact fluorescents
• insulate your home

• live in a small house
• stop at two children
• support family planning
• teach kids environmentalism
• recycle
• make less trash
• don't litter
• pick up other people's litter
• buy less stuff
• buy durable stuff
• dont buy over-packaged stuff
• don't waste stuff
• eat low on the food chain
• eat less
• buy organic
• take a cloth bag to the store
• patronize Farmers' Market
• buy local regional products
• VOTE !