Change Creates and Eliminates Marketing Opportunities

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Change Creates and Eliminates Marketing
Opportunities

• What Is The Fastest Growing City In The U.S.?

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Cherokee Indians ...

• All the time I go about in pity of myself a
  great wind is bearing me across the sky.
• What do you thinking this means?

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The Megatrends

• John Naisbitt and Company

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Megatrends 1982

• 1. Industrial -- Information Based Society
• 2. High Tech -- High Touch Response
• 3. National -- Global Economy
• 4. Short Term -- Long Term Orientation
• 5. Centralization -- Decentralization

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Megatrends 1982

• 6. Institutional Help -- Self Help
• 7. Representative -- Participatory Government
• 8. Hierarchies -- Networking Organizations
• 9. North Moves -- South and to the Coasts
• 10. Not Either / Or, but -- Choice or is not
  longer a chocolate and vanilla world

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Megatrends 2000

• 1. Booming Global Economy of the 1990s
• 2. Renaissance in the Arts
• 3. Emergence of Free-Market Socialism
• 4. Global Lifestyle - Cultural Nationalism
• 5. Privatization of the Welfare State

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Megatrends 2000

• 6. Rise of the Pacific Rim
• 7. Decade of Women in Leadership
• 8. Age of Biology
• 9. Religious Revival of the New Millennium
• 10. Triumph of the Individual

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16 Trends In The Economy

• Faith Popcorn - BrainReserve

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1. Anchoring

• The tendency to use ancient practices as anchors
  or support modern lifestyles
• Examples
• Aromatherapy
• Meditation
• Yoga
• Eastern religions
• Western medicine is responding by including
  so-called Alternative medicine

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1. Anchoring - Examples

• 69 of Americans believe in angels, and 46 have
  their own guardian angel.
• Two-thirds of Americans report mystical
  experiences.
• 90 say religion is important 72 pray every
  day.
• 40 us believe in faith healing.
• Christian bookstores reap 3 billion in annual
  sales.
• The Internet has over 72,000 sites devoted to
  Christian themes.
• People are looking beyond Western traditions to
  alternative spirituality and healing.
• 3 million Americans practice yoga martial arts.
  
• Many of us are looking for more personal anchors,
  exploring family genealogy.
• The Internet and software shelves are full of
  systems for tracking ancestry Rootsweb.com gets
  400,000 hits a day

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2. Being Alive

• The desire to lead longer and more enjoyable
  lives
• Examples
• Vegetarianism
• Low-tech medicine (herbs, naturals, etc.)
• Meditation
• Marketers respond with healthier products /
  services or do they appear to be healthier

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2. Being Alive - Examples

• The quickest illustration of this Trend is the
  incredible surge in organic products. Now
  organics are a 7.6 billion business, up 200 in
  the last 5 years.
• Think about herbal additives Ginseng, St. Johns
  Wort, Kava. Herbal additives in food or in the
  form of capsules, tinctures, extracts or teas are
  now routinely used by one third of American
  adults.
• GNC is opening more than a store a day they do
  4.2 billion in annual sales.
• Fitness club membership is up 64 over the last 7
  years for those aged 39-54.
• And were trying to improve mental health at the
  same time. Witness the "sweat shop fitness
  wellness facility" in Albany, NY, where clients
  get therapy while working out.
• People are gobbling up green tea even as ice
  cream.
• Alternativity is a big part of this Trend. Think
  acupuncture, magnets, meditation.
• We are even seeing the rise of alternative pet
  care the Holistic Veterinary Association counts
  700 member vets.

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3. Cashing Out

• The desire for a simpler, less hectic lifestyle
• Examples
• Executives leave corporate American to run a
  bed-and-breakfast in Vermont or run small
  businesses from home
• Return to small towns and rural America
• This trend is marked by the nostalgic return to
  small town values

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3. Cashing Out - Examples

• Back To Basics
• Astonishing success of "Simple Abundance" by
  Sarah Ban Breathnach Time Warner now has a deal
  with her to produce 4 books per year at Simple
  Abundance Press.
• 51 of Americans prefer more free time, even if
  it means less income.
• Over 4 million city-dwellers moved out of cities
  in the last 4 years.
• People looking for ways out of the rat-race have
  formed support groups to help with "exit
  strategies."

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3. Cashing Out - Examples

• Leisure Time For The Briefcase Set
• Prominent leaders are leaving to spend more time
  with their families
• Susan Molinari and Bill Paxon both U.S. House
  Representatives resigned to devote time to
  family.
• Patty Stonesifer former head of Microsofts
  interactive division left that pressure-cooker
  job for a more temperate pace as president of the
  Gates Library Foundation
• Sergio Zyman, marketing guru for Coke, left to
  spend more time hanging out at home.
• One way out is Entrepreneurship
• Someone starts a home-based business every 11
  seconds.
• Oh, and those home-based businesses are raking in
  401 billion in annual revenues!

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4. Clanning

• The growing need to join up with / belong to
  groups to confront a more chaotic world.
• Examples
• HOG - Harley Owners Group
• Mega Churches
• Self help support groups
• Markets respond with products, services to help
  consumer feel part of something

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4. Clanning - Examples

• As joiners, we Americans want to share our
  opinions, beliefs, complaints whatever it is
  were feeling.
• The AIDS ribbon is a terrific example of Clanning
  at work in the social realm there are actually
  more than 500,000 support groups for different
  health concerns.
• "Superparents" may be the next Clan with the
  booming market for fertility drugs, twin births
  are up 42 over the last 15 years, and for those
  really going for the gusto, births of triplets or
  more are up 272 during the same period.
• The list is endless teens are forming virgin
  clubs, tea-lovers are joining tea-clubs, women
  named Betty are bonding over their name, even
  Harley Davidson does a "ladies of Harley" group.
• Small town solidarity is turning up in wallets
  some municipalities are now issuing their own
  currencies to encourage local spending and
  rebuild communities without relying on going to
  Washington.
• Andy Warhol once said, "I think it would be
  terrific if everybody was alike." Now THEREs a
  Clan!

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5. Cocooning

• The impulse to stay inside when the going outside
  gets too tough and scary.
• Examples
• TV watching and movie rental
• Redecorating
• Ordering from catalogs
• Using answering machines and caller-id to filter
  the outside world

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5. Cocooning (continued)

• Socialized cocoons gather inside for conversation
• Wandering cocoons are people who hole up in their
  cars with take-out foods and cell phone
• Question - are chat rooms a reflection of
  cocooning? The net as entertainment?

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5. Cocooning - Examples

• Martha Stewart, B. Smith has turned "home-making
  voyeurism" into big business.
• Home improvement is a 143 billion business.
• Home Depot has 657 stores, with 1,300 new stores
  planned for 2001.
• And what else are we doing at home? Shopping!
• QVC counts 5 million couch shoppers HSN sends
  out 62,000 packages per day.
• The Armored Cocoon Is Changing Our Neighborhoods
  And Homes
• Gated communities house 4 million Americans.
• Private security is now a 104 billion market.
• And when were tucked safely indoors, we want to
  enjoy ourselves movie theaters are now installed
  in some 16.6 million homes.

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5. Cocooning - Examples

• Not To Mention Working At Home
• New surveys show that only 17 of workers want
  that corner office a clear majority would prefer
  to work in a home office.
• The number of U.S. at-home workers is up 100 in
  the last 5 years, for a total of 10.1 million. In
  20 yrs, 1 in 7 workers will be a full-time
  telecommuter.
• Len Riggio, President of Barnes Noble,
  understands stores are Cocoons the pick-up place
  of the 90's is a retail space designed like a
  comfortable living room. Barnes Noble has
  revenues upwards of 2.5 billion, opening 70
  outlets a year.
• An old prayer brings this Trend home "Bless
  these walls so firm and stout, keeping want and
  trouble out."

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6. Down-Aging

• The tendency for older people to act and feel
  younger than their age.
• Examples
• More youthful looking clothes
• Hair coloring / hair implants
• Adult camps and adventure vacations
• Question - Is having / adopting children past age
  50 part of this trend?

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6. Down-Aging - Examples

• "Star Wars" made millions the second time around
  with a grown-up fan base.
• Think of all the primetime TV shows starring
  cartoon characters "The Simpsons," "King of the
  Hill," "South Park," "Daria," "Dr. Katz," and
  newcomers "The PJs," "Futurama," and "The Family
  Guy."
• Smores and cotton candy are now a popular
  dessert in restaurants, and Manhattan even sports
  a downtown eatery called Peanut Butter Co.,
  serving sandwiches of nothing but.
• The Down-Aging retail landscape is booming as
  well Disney has 250 stores and Warner Brothers
  has 80 stores 80 of their sales are to adults,
  for adults.
• My favorite online auction, eBay, posts 1,941
  hits for Pez dispensers.
• The median age of a Harley customer has risen to
  42 ten years ago it was 34.
• Car makers are appealing to boomer tastes by
  bringing back old favorites like the Ford
  Thunderbird, Chevrolets Nomad station wagon from
  the 50s, and of course the VW Bug.

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7. Egonomics

• The wish to individualize oneself through
  possessions and experience.
• Examples
• Look alike dolls
• Individually built computers
• Custom clothing
• Marketers respond by offering customized goods,
  services, and experiences.

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7. Egonomics - Examples

• I saw the critical importance of this Trend when
  a consumer said to me, "I used to be a name. Then
  I became a number. Now Im a bar-code."
• Customization will be an enormous part of the
  future marketplace. Even now, it has turned up in
  some crazy corners a company called My Twin Doll
  will take a photograph of your child and produce
  a custom doll that looks just like her! (Theyre
  starting young)
• The growing market in body piercing, tattoos
  branding is about a lot of things, not least of
  all individuation.
• Check out this company that bakes cookies with a
  "you are what you eat" attitude. The Clever
  Cookie Company has recently introduced a
  cutstomized cookie imprinted with a color
  photograph in edible ink.

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7. Egonomics - Examples

• Even The Dead Are Requiring Custom Treatment
• Ashes can be launched into space
• Sportsmens ashes can be turned into buckshot
  and
• Viewlogy (rhymes with eulogy) allows the
  story-teller in all of us to be posthumously
  indulged a sealed video tombstone on which
  mourners can watch the life-story as told by the
  deceased and family.
• Fashion Has Been Among The First Industries To
  Make Egonomics Part Of Its Best Practices
• The Custom Foot takes your particular
  measurements, allows you to preview styles,
  fabric and leather types, and sends the data to
  its factory in Tuscany, and back comes a pair of
  custom shoes.
• Custom jeans can now be had from Levis, and a
  wealth of other custom-tailored clothes are now
  available on the Web just send in 11 key
  measurements!
• And it's not just for the high-end "Mass-Class"
  has arrived.

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8. Fantasy Adventure

• The need to find emotional escapes to offset
  daily routines.
• Examples
• Eating exotic foods
• Safari vacations
• Race car driving school
• Marketers create fantasy products and services,
  especially virtual reality.

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8. Fantasy Adventure - Examples

• Exotic Fantasy In The Food Realm
• Biblical cuisine fusion menus of all kinds
  always some new ingredient you havent yet heard
  of.
• Vampire wines from Transylvania bring a shiver to
  your dinner-table (labels are printed with
  dripping blood in case you somehow missed the
  point).
• Using herbs found in archaeological digs, one
  fragrance master has recreated Cleopatras
  perfume.
• Of course, the Web is any Fantasy Adventurers
  dream we can self-create as often as we like in
  cyberspace, adopting any gender, image, or name.
  Anonymity enables fantasy.

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8. Fantasy Adventure - Examples

• Thornton Wilder summed this one up nicely "when
  youre safe at home, you wish you were having an
  adventure. When youre having an adventure, you
  wish you were safe at home."
• So how can we travel without traveling? For the
  first time, film merchandising has extended to
  selling pieces of the set (real or reproduced)
  from films like "Titanic" and "LA Confidential."
• Speaking of which, the success of "Titanic"
  spurred 15 growth in the cruise industry (and as
  I recall, the boat SANK in that movie!).
• Ever wonder whats going on with Luxor, Las
  Vegas? Apparently of the 56 of us who gamble,
  97 prefer to do so in over-the-top settings.
• Theme parks are booming, with annual revenues of
  6 billion.
• Even when we do travel, we are thirsty for
  adventure in our hotel rooms One Australian
  hotel offers upscale tree-houses for 900 a night
  (and you wont be roughing it, with TV, AC, and
  minibar access assured).

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9. Eveolution

• The recognition that men and women act and think
  differently.
• Examples
• Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Vensus
• Saturn Car Company targets women
• Marketers seek to develop strong relationships
  with women customers who make 82 of all retail
  purchases

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9. Eveolution - Examples

• Let me answer once and for all the age-old
  stumper What do women want? Relationships!
• The numbers on women in business may surprise
  you
• Women-owned businesses employ more than the
  Fortune 500 combined 18.5 million workers.
• They do 2.3 trillion in annual sales.
• Women own 8 million businesses in the U.S., or
  1/3 of all U.S. firms. And by the way this figure
  has risen 78 since 87.
• A woman opens a new business every 60 seconds.
  Women are leaving corporate America at twice the
  rate of men.
• By the year 2005, 40 of all firms will be
  female-owned.
• Four out of five Japanese small business owners
  are women.

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9. Eveolution - Examples

• As for womens consumer power, they control 80
  of household spending.
• Women purchase 75 of all over-the-counter drugs.
  
• Last year women bought 50 of all PCs, and have
  reached parity in the on-line community.
• Women influence 90 of all car purchases.
• Women own 53 of all stocks.
• New book will be on EVEOLUTION...stay tuned!
• Marketing students - Remember who make 82 of all
  retail purchases women!

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10. Icon Topping

• The idea that if its big, its bad.
• Marketers are responding by finding ways to
  think, act, and look smaller.
• Examples
• Millers Plank Road Brewery beer looks like a
  micro brewery
• Army of One - the concept of individual
  attention and performance

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10. Icon Topping - Examples

• Skeptical consumers are ready to bring down the
  long-accepted monuments of business, government,
  celebrity and society.
• Large companies no longer hold our trust.
  Corporate behemoths like ATT, Amex, and IBM are
  scrambling to look small.
• Linux may just be the slingshot that brings
  Microsoft down weve lost faith in the good
  intentions of the giants.
• Loyalty to a single employer has gone the way of
  the dinosaur temp agencies are the single
  largest employment sector in the U.S.
• Our distrust of doctors has produced an enormous
  market in alternative medicine we spent 19
  billion in that category last year.
• Forget celebrity spokespeople ads now spotlight
  the unfamous, the wannabes and the who-was-thats
  even a couple of Real People to sell their
  wares.
• A Yankelovich survey shows that customers trust
  friends above experts when it comes to product
  recommendations (65 trust friends, 27 trust
  experts, 8 trust celebrities).

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11. Manicpation

• The emancipation of men from stereotypical roles.
• Men are no longer required to be macho, distant,
  and strong.
• This trend is reveal in ads featuring men as
  nurturing dads and concerned husbands.
• Question - Why does the diet coke ad run counter
  to this trend?

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12. 99 Lives

• The attempt to relieve time pressures by doing
  many things at once.
• Examples of multitasking
• Talking on a cell phone while surfing the net
• Driving, eating,and talking on a cell phone
• Writing this lecture while watching a video
• Marketers creating can cash in by creating
  all-in-one-service stops

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12. 99 Lives - Examples

• I tuned in to 99 Lives when someone at a
  BrainReserve TrendProbe said, "Today I dont even
  have time to realize how busy I am."
• I predict that by 2010, 90 of all consumer goods
  will be home-delivered.
• Time is the new money people would rather spend
  money than time.
• 80 of Americans are looking for ways to simplify
  their lives.
• 78 want to reduce stress.
• Home meal replacement is now a 100 billion
  business.

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13. Pleasure Revenge

• The proud and public pursuit of pleasure as a
  rebellion against self-control / deprivation.
• People are fed-up with the health kick of the
  1980s.
• Examples
• Eating red meat, fats, sugars, etc.
• Turning away from health-food alternatives
• Question - Are people taking more risks?

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13. Pleasure Revenge - Examples

• An old Spanish proverb captures the spirit of
  this Trend "living well is the best revenge."
• Tired of being told whats good for them,
  rebellious consumers are indifferent to rules
  regulations. Theyre cutting loose publicly
  savoring forbidden fruits.
• Martinis, red meat, and cigars these are the
  hallmarks of your Pleasure Revenge consumer.
• Beef consumption has reached a new high 64 lbs.
  per person per year. There were 5.2 billion
  hamburgers eaten last year.
• Steakhouses have grown 47 (from 1993-1998), to
  be the fastest growing kind of restaurant.
• Weight loss centers are down 46 over the past 5
  years. Eating Well magazine folded in January
  (1/99).
• One New York gym ran an ad saying "Look at it
  this way. The more you exercise, the healthier
  your lungs, the more you can smoke."

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14. S.O.S (Save Our Society)

• The desire to make society more socially
  responsible with respect to education, ethics,
  and the environment.
• Examples
• Green marketing
• Customer Bill of Rights
• Companies need to practice more socially
  responsible marketing.

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14. S.O.S - Examples

• A bumper sticker sums this one up "There's no
  hope, but I may be wrong."
• Concerned with the fate of the planet, consumers
  respond to marketers who exhibit a social
  conscience attuned to ethics, environment, and
  education.
• Chef Alice Waters of Chez Panisse created an
  edible schoolyard, using an organic garden as a
  classroom.
• Working Assets phone service uses major carriers
  (like Sprint), but applies 2 cents of every
  dollar in revenue to a chosen cause of the month.
  
• Timberland gives every employee 40 hours per year
  of paid time for community service.
• 182 major investing institutions make socially
  responsible investments, amounting to 639
  billion in annual assets (almost 10 times the
  size of the Vanguard SP Index 500 fund).
• In fact, S.O.S. is becoming the corporate
  standard.

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15. Small Indulgences

• A penchant to indulge in small scale splurges to
  obtain an occasional emotional lift.
• Examples
• Eating healthy for a week and then having Ben and
  Jerrys New York Super Fudge Chunk
• Brown bag lunch with a Starbucks latte
• Mon Cheri as a self reward
• Question - What do you do to indulge?

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15. Small Indulgences - Examples

• Sunglasses have become "cars for the face." The
  average pair now costs 77. Sunglass Hut has
  2,116 stores, with annual sales of 418 million.
• The old Bic may not be good enough for the
  occasional letter we sit down to write Mont
  Blanc now sells 350 million in fancy pens every
  year.
• 7.99 for a tube of Rembrandt toothpaste? You
  betcha!
• Premium-priced necessities are currently the
  largest growth area in packaged goods
• Gillettes Mach 3 razor costs 35 more than the
  Sensor Excel, and they cant keep them on the
  shelves.
• Other successful new entrants Hefty one-zip
  sliding lock food-storage bags and Huggies
  Supreme Care diapers.

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15. Small Indulgences - Examples

• Henry James reminds us that "there are few hours
  in life more agreeable than the hour dedicated to
  the ceremony known as afternoon tea." But did he
  have any idea how far wed go with this tea
  thing?
• Zagats now has a tea category, to match the rise
  of afternoon tea in hotels/restaurants
• Specialty and exotic teas are brewing all over
  America as we surf.
• Whimsical tea pots, replicas of ancient tea pots.
  
• Elegant dinners may have menus designed around
  tea, as at the Ritz Carlton.
• And for the true fanatics out there, we spotted
  vanity license plates spelling words like
  "oolong."

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16. The Vigilant Consumer

• Intolerance for shoddy products and poor service.
• Vigilant consumers want companies to be more
  aware and responsive.
• Examples
• Consumer boycotts and class action suits
• Consumers buying green products
• My family has stopped eating red meat ...

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16. Vigilant Consumer - Examples

• When Im explaining this Trend to clients, I ask
  them to examine their own companies carefully
  Every business contains the seeds of its own
  destruction.
• Consumers seek real products, benefits, people,
  communication, and value.
• When they are disappointed, consumers can be
  formidable enemies at any given time, there are
  150 boycotts in progress nationwide.
• The poster-children for this Trend would have to
  be Nike and Kathie Lee Gifford consumers care
  about whats behind the brand, what it stands for
  and whose labor has built it.
• United Airlines seems to have taken this Trend to
  heart. Its 97 annual report admitted to
  consumers and shareholders alike that it had a
  long way to go, and pledged to do better. They
  went so far as to print angry testimonials from
  disappointed customers.

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16. Vigilant Consumer - Examples

• The tools for Vigilante Consumer action have
  exploded with the Web. For example, the FAAs
  Website now provides detailed safety records of
  all commercial planes travelers can read the
  specs of any plane theyll be traveling on, and
  re-book accordingly.
• Popular Culture reflects these themes as well
  The Dilbert Principle was the 1-selling book for
  over 200 weeks. Its theme? A downsized engineer
  strikes back.
• The private label phenomenon is another index of
  consumer discontent its all about the rejection
  of brand names. Private label sales are up 38
  over the past three years.
• In fact, discount/off-price outlets are the
  fastest growing sector of retail. One-third of
  all groceries are now bought at warehouse clubs.

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What New Trends Are Emerging?