Introduction to Sustainable Development

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Introduction to Sustainable Development

• Lecture A

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Purpose of the Course

• Introduce the Concept of Sustainability as the
  Foundation of Future Society
• Provide a Foundation for Understanding and
  Implementing Sustainability Principles
• Show the Importance of a Sustainable Community as
  the Key Concept
• Indicate Methods for Implementing Sustainability
  in Various Social and Economic Sectors

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Reasons for this Course

• Humankind is profoundly affecting the Earth
• Destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity
• Global environmental problems greenhouse
  warming, ozone depletion, toxification, soil
  erosion, emissions
• Mass movements of materials
• Introduction of biological agents estrogen
  mimickers, genetically engineered products
• Humankind does not understand or appreciate the
  role of ecosystems for our health and in our
  economy
• Humanity may be crashing the critical planetary
  ecosystems
• How do we change direction at this critical point
  in time? Globally? In Poland?

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Proposed Solution -Briefly

• Sustainable development or sustainability
• Development that meets the needs of the present
  without compromising the ability of future
  generations to meet their own needs World
  Commission on Environment and Development, 1987
  Our Common Future (Brundtland Report)
• Balancing environment, economy, and societys
  needs
• Sustainability Clarified Satisfying lives for
  all within the means of naturenow and in the
  future. Redefining Progress, 2002,
  www.rprogress.org

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Some New Vocabulary

• Sustainability
• Substitutability
• Deep Ecology
• Factor 4 and Factor 10
• Carrying Capacity
• Ecological Footprint
• Ecological Rucksack
• Adaptive Management
• Ecological Economics
• Environmental Ethics
• Clean Production
• Industrial Ecology
• Eco-efficiency
• MIPS

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The Twin Problems Population and Consumption

• Human population has been growing exponentially
  since the beginning of the industrial revolution
  (1.7/year)
• Industrial production has also been growing at an
  exponential rate (3.5/year 1970-2000)
• World fertilizer consumption is doubling every 15
  years. Total use now is 15 times greater than
  the end of WWII.
• In this century, consumption of energy and
  materials will increase by a Factor of 12
  (2000-2100) if growth in population continues at
  the same rates

Beyond the Limits to Growth, Meadows, Meadows,
and Rander
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World Population Growth
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World Demographic Transition
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Population Growth over Time

• 1650 0.5 billion 0.3/year DT250 yrs
• 1900 1.6 billion 0.5/year DT140 yrs
• 1970 3.6 billion 2.1/year DT 34 yrs
• Result Superexponential growth, the rate of
  increase is increasing
• 1990 5.4 billion 1.7/year DT 42 yrs
• 2000 6.0 billion 1.7/year DT 42 yrs

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World Industrial Production
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Percent Change in Industrial Production from
Previous Year
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World Fertilizer Use 1950-2000
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Worldwide Growth in Selected Activities 1970-2000
1970 2000 Population 3.6
billion 6.1 billion Automobile Production 22.5
million 40.9 million Oil consumption 2,189
MTOE 3,332 MTOE Natural gas consumption 1,022
MTOE 2,277 MTOE Coal consumption 1,635
MTOE 2,034 MTOE Wind Energy Capacity(MW) approx
0 18,100 GDP (-1999) 16.3 trillion 43.2
trillion GDP (-1999/capita 4,407 7,102 AIDS
Deaths approx 0 21.8 million
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Key Lesson about Growth Rates

• Apparently small growth rates have massive
  consequences
• World population growth rate is only 1.7
• Buy means 78 million new people per year
• World population doubled since 1960!
• Why?

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Doubling Times
Growth Rate, /year Doubling Time
(years) 0.1 700 0.5 140 1.0
70 2.0 35 3.0 23 4.0
18 5.0 14 6.0 10 7.0 7
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Example Nigerias Population

• Population growth rate 2.7/year

Year Population (millions) 1990
118 2014 236 2038 472 2062
944 2086 1,888
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Rule of 72
72/Growth Rate in /year Doubling Time in
Years Nigerian Example 72/2.7 26.7 years
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One more example Paper!

• Double a sheet of paper the thickness is
  doubled.
• Double the sheet of paper 40 times how thick is
  it?

Thickness 0.5 mm x 240 0.5 x 1.1 x 1012 5.5
x1011 mm
550,000,000,000 mm 550,000 km distance
from the Earth to the Moon!
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IPAT Formula
ImpactPopulation x Affluence x Technology
I P x A x T Impact
(throughput) of a population on the planets
sources and sinks equals the population times its
affluence times the damage done by the
technologies supporting the affluence.
Environmental impact/person Source Paul
Ehrlich
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Affecting IPAT Outcomes

• Population (P) family planning, female
  literacy, social welfare, role of women, land
  tenure
• Affluence (A)
• Capital stock/person values, prices, full
  costing, what do we want?, What is enough?
• Material throughput/capital stock product
  longevity, material choice, minimum materials
  design, recycling/reuse/recovery, scrap recovery
• Technology (T)
• Energy/material throughput End-use efficiency,
  conversion efficiency, distribution efficiency,
  system integration, process redesign
• Environmental impact/Energy Benign sources,
  scale, siting, technical mitigation, offsets

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Some Evidence of Real Problems

• Humans are coopting 40 of terrestrial and 30 of
  aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et
  al 1986))
• Humans are coopting 26 of all evapotranspiration
  and 54 of available water runoff, a net of about
  30 of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle
  (Postel 1997)
• Humans are moving 2x more material than all
  natural forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997)
• Atmospheric CO2 has risen from 290 ppm (early
  1880s) to 315 ppm in 1958, 345 ppm in 1990, 369
  ppm in 2000
• Falling grain production

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World Grain Production 1950-2000
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What is Sustainable Development?

• Sustainable development is development that meets
  the needs of the present without compromising the
  ability of future generations to meet their own
  needs World Commission on Environment and
  Development, 1987 Our Common Future (Brundtland
  Report)
• Agenda 21 In order to meet the challenges of
  environment and development, States decided to
  engage in a new global partnership ...
  sustainable development should become a priority
  item on the agenda of the international community
  UN Conf on Env Dev, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992
• ... is nondeclining human well-being over time
  David Pearce, Economics of Sustainable
  Development, 1994

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More on Sustainable Development

• A particular system that when considered in
  isolation has a positive balance in relation to
  its own costs and benefits (Ravetz 1992)
• Improving the quality of life within the carrying
  capacity or supporting ecosystems (WCU 1991)
• The use of energy and materials in an urban area
  in balance with what the region can supply
  continuously through natural processes such as
  photosynthesis, biological decomposition, and the
  biochemical processes which sustain life (Lyle
  1994)
• Something is 'sustainable' if it has the capacity
  to continue. (Sustainable London)

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Lester Brown (Worldwatch Institute)

• Over the long term for sustainability
• Species Extinction lt Species Evolution
• Soil Erosion lt Soil Formation
• Forest Destruction lt Forest Regeneration
• Carbon Emissions lt Carbon Fixation
• Fish Catches lt Regeneration Capacity of
  Fisheries
• Human Births lt Human Deaths

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Key Points

• Sustainability is concerned with future
  generations, intergenerational justice,
  resources, environment
• Three systems must be maintained in healthy a
  healthy relationship ecological, social, and
  economic
• Natural systems hold the key to human
  sustainability

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The Systems
Natural (N)
Social (S)
Economic (E)
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Proto-Sustainable Systems
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Truly Sustainable Systems
N
S
E
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Paradigm Shifts
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• Social problems
• erosion of the family
• educational system quality
• crime and prisoners
• decaying cities
• Economic problems
• unequal distribution of wealth
• shift of productivity income, workers to capital
  owners
• technology driven creative destruction
• Environmental problems
• loss of natural capital rainforest
• greenhouse warming and ozone depletion
• loss of soil, over-fishing, over-grazing,
  over-foresting

What is the connection between...?
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Thinking Sustainably Observe Nature

• There is no such thing as waste
• Live off current solar income
• Respect and foster diversity

A key lesson from this course!
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General Sustainability Principles

• minimize resource consumption, use of
  non-renewables, pollution, toxics, waste
• maximize efficiency, reuse, recycling, renewable
  resource use
• foster conservation, understanding of natural
  systems functions, economic justice
• focus on quality v. quantity, needs v. wants
• redesign the economy and artifacts to mimic
  natural systems

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Waste Pollution Inefficiency Lost

• Positive Correlation environmentalism economic
  prosperity
• Germany
• environmental technologies
• environmental policy economic policy
• improved environmental quality improved
  competitiveness
• Japan
• 40 less energy in steel production than US, far
  less air pollution
• defy conventional wisdom
• Research Agency of Innovative Technology for the
  Earth international competitiveness

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Perverse Economics

• Environmental damage actually add to GNP
• Depletion of natural resources adds to GNP ( tax
  credits!!)
• The polluter hardly pays
• Waste disposal is heavily subsidized
• Maximum ROI drives corporate decisions
• Discount rate maximizes todays
  consumption/depletion

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Strong vs. Weak Sustainability

• Refers to different schools of thought
• Strong natural capital is irreplaceable
• Weak natural capital is substitutable by
  manmade capital
• More discussion when we cover economic concepts

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Summary

• Extraction of resource and environmental damage
  continuing and even accelerating
• We are rapidly destroying adapted, diverse
  ecosystems crucial to both our economy and our
  survival
• Growth as a basic assumption of the economic
  system is mathematically and physically
  impossible
• Sustainability can help us change course to live
  within the constraints of nature with a high
  quality of life, to change our thinking.

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The significant problems we face cannot be
solved at the same level of thinking we were at
when we created them. - Albert Einstein