Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry

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Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry

• Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
• Mn Dept of Administration
• March 2008

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Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic
Indicators

• 4th lowest rate of disability among people age
  16-64
• 1st with at least high school degree (90.7)
• 12th with at least a bachelors degree
• 1st home ownership
• 2nd United Health Foundation ranking of state
  healthiness 2007

• 2nd percent of 16-64 employed (76.9)
• 8th lowest poverty rate
• 1st percent with health insurance 2004-06 ave
• 9th median family income in 2006
• 1st Kids Count 2007

Updated October 2007
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Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Health Outcome
Measures 2005 United Health Foundation Rankings
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Successful, YesBut Demographic Mega-trends Are
Altering The Face Of Minnesota

• Suburban growth/ rural and central city not
  growing
• Increasingly diverse
• Aging
• And these changes are altering the client base
  for dentistry as well as the workforce

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Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1 ¼ Million People
In The Next 30 Years
Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
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Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut

• Twin Cities accounts for 78 of growth in the
  state
• Suburban ring is spreading outward
• 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of
  the nation
• Rural and central city declines since 1950
• Increasing metropolitan and lakeshore development
  have implications for natural resource management

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Minnesota is Growing More Diverse

• Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in
  the nation13 minority v US 32
• Over half of total population growth this decade
  is minority.
• And this is related to agenew, diverse
  population is younger

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Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still
Less Than The Nation
Note Population except white alone, not
Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate
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Minnesotas Children Are More Diverse Than Older
People
2000 Census
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Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home
Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly
Related To Growth In Local Employment
Source Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of
more than 100 enrollment.
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Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In
Minnesota And The Nation

• It is not normal for a society to age
• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011
  and beyond
• The leading edge of Boomers turn 60 this year!
• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65 will
  increase by 53. By 2030 it will double
• Aging, combined with growth and increased
  diversity will lead to challenges and
  opportunities not fully anticipated

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From 2005 to 2015, Largest Growth in Minnesota
Will Be in Ages 55 to 69
Source Minnesota State Demographic
Center Numbers are rounded
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The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 201165
Passes School Age Around 2020
Census counts State Demographer projection,
revised 2007
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Aging Will Alter Oral Health Services

• Baby-boom aging--maintenance on complicated
  dental appliances and prosthetics, such as
  bridges.
• Older Americans are retaining more of their teeth
  than in the past, and are thus more likely to
  experience destructive periodontal disease.
• While the percentage of individuals older than
  age 65 without any teeth has declined
  tremendously over past 20-30 years, it is still
  higher than for those younger than 65.
• Older adults often have additional medical
  conditions that cause a higher level of
  maintenance to be necessary in order to maintain
  their oral health.

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Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers
Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
2005 ACS
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Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer
revised 2007
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Migration Will Be An Increasingly Important
Component To The Slowing Labor Force Growth
State Demographer projection revised 2007
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Two Thirds of Active Minnesota Dentist Are 50
2006 American Community Survey
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Dentists Are Older Than The Overall Workforce
2006 ACS
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U.S. Age Structure Of Dentals And Related
Occupations
2006 American Community Survey