How will the rural South East cope with the future in 2020

1
How will the rural South East cope with the
future in 2020?

• Duncan Mackay
• Regional Director
• Countryside Agency
• July 17 2003
• SEERA RURAL VISION

2
The Countryside Agency is the government agency
working to make

• A high quality of life for people in the
  countryside
• A high quality countryside that people can enjoy

3
SOC 2020 is concerned with

• Drivers
• Global economy and society

LIKELY TRENDS KEY UNCERTAINTIES POLICY CHALLENGES
Scenarios

• Start point
• the countryside today

Choices
4
SOC 2020 is not about

• predicting the future
• setting out a vision
• prescribing solutions

5
It focuses on

• Who will live in the countryside?
• How will they earn their living?
• What will be their quality of life?

6
More interconnectedness in the global economy

• increases in trade and competition
• greater flows of goods, money, information and
  people
• growth in services and in the interactive
  component of all jobs

Index 1990 100
Source WTO
7
and shifts in values, relationships and working
patterns

• the choice explosion
• It must fit me values
• the experience economy
• the changing future of work

thousands
Source Skillsbase IER/CE
8
Nationally the demand for homes will rise
Source ODPM (1999)
9
The split between town and country will depend
upon

• Pressures for counter-urbanisation

• Pressures for protection

Source National Centre for Social Research, 2000
/ State of the Countryside 2002
10
Long distance transport improvements will also
fuel commuter - led growth
Traffic on rural roads index 1996 100
Even with the 10 year plan, substantial increases
in traffic and congestion are forecast
Source DfT
Source National Road Traffic Forecasts (6B)
1997, DfT
11
and encourage overflow

• Throughout the last 50 years the net migration
  within the UK has been consistently outwards from
  our conurbations (UWP)
• between 1981 and 2001 the population of rural
  districts grew by 11, that of urban districts by
  2

12
There is a likelihood of growing tensions, played
out through the market, the planning system and
the processes of democracy
consumers
developers
champions of diversity and social inclusion
champions of the environment
13
How these tensions resolve themselves will have
big implications for the way we use the land
The map shows changes from rural to developed
land in Landscape Character types in the East
Midlands 1990 2001 (Land Use Change
Statistics). Darker shades show higher of land
cover changed
Source CA 2003 with University of Sheffield
ODPM LUCS data.
14
For the people who live there will they be
mainly middle aged?
2020
2001
?
of population aged 45-64
?
Source 2001 Census
15
and white?
2020
2001
rural
?
urban
?
Source 2001 Census
16
and for community life?
Source GHS / Countryside Agency 2003
17
Not one countryside but many, with different
drivers
Country Towns
Commuter countryside
Ex-industrial countryside
Farming countryside
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Country towns

• new and relocating firms responding to
  opportunities
• housing led growth
• dispersal of services such as health and education

19
Commuter countryside

• driven by cities and transport improvements
• more commuters travelling longer distances
• more tele-working

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Farmed countryside

• new opportunities
• a new economy industry
• twin-track agriculture
• diversified land use

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Ex-industrial countryside

• the challenge finding a new role

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What kind of countryside?
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Four scenarios
fragmentation
the countryside means business
go for green
environmentally sustainable
environmentally unsustainable
cohesion
all on board
the triple whammy
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In the countryside means business

• The economy grows, but at the expense of
  environmental and social sustainability

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Countryside means business

• Housing demand forces planning constraints to
  ease to keep costs down developers drop design
  standards sustainable techniques planning gain
  provides for key workers but not rural poor
• Economy commuting increases as motorways/roads
  expand high speed road/rail links spread SE
  wealth further north via Midlands support for
  farmers is limited but large farms go
  intensive/energy crops small ones diversify or
  go bust
• Quality of Life some elected RAs established
  give priority to business people feel excluded
  from decisions temporary foreign workers replace
  skills improvements and income gap widens

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In go for green

• The countryside becomes more environmentally
  sustainable, but is also more socially fragmented

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In all on board

• The countryside becomes more socially
  sustainable, but at the expense of environmental
  sustainability

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In the triple whammy

• Economic, social and environmental sustainability
  combine. The economy changes direction to become
  both greener and more inclusive

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The triple whammy

• Housing - 60 target for brownfield is achieved
  but large numbers of affordable homes are also
  built in countryside sustainably designed homes
  close to jobs get tax breaks LPAs strengthened
  to enforce standards
• Economy - tele-working aided by tax incentives
  eases traffic growth local networking
  revitalises villages market towns skill
  shortages met by retraining rural workforce
  broadband maturity decentralises govt services to
  small towns villages reformed CAP encourages
  diversification sustainable farming
• Quality of Life more public transport/road
  charging.Some regions have elected assemblies,
  stronger local government and rural people feel
  more engaged. Poverty crime reduces

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Summing up
Global economy and society Interconnectedness
Itmustfit-me values
Likely trends MORE HOMES MORE COMMUTING Key
uncertainties TOWN/COUNTRY SPLIT MIDDLE AGED,
MIDDLE CLASS, WHITE? Policy challenges PLANNING,
TRANSPORT, HOUSING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY
the countryside means business go for
green! all on board! the triple whammy
The countryside today 4 countrysides
Choices by consumers, developers, policy makers
society
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What next?

• What kind of countryside do we want in SE England
  by 2020?
• What are we going to do about it through the
  Regional Spatial Strategy?
• CA offers a SE Rural Vision Conference