Improving the SAGE Refinery Representation

1
Improving the SAGE Refinery Representation

• John Staub, OIAF Phillip Tseng, SMG
• Energy Information Administration
• April 7, 2006

2
Outline

• Purpose of the new refinery representation
• Trends in crude oil prices and petroleum products
• Flow chart of refinery operations
• Enhanced model structure
• Data Sources and Data Issues
• Questions for the Committee

3
Purpose of presentation

• Committee input on modeling approach
  to enhance EIAs modeling of
  world supply and demand for the International
  Energy Outlook publication.

4
Purpose of Enhancements

• Observe investment decisions
• Observe prices for products and crude oils
• Assess the effects of crude oil quality changes
  and refinery capacity expansion on crude oil and
  product trade
• Capture interactions between demand for refined
  products and demand for light or heavy crude oil

5
Trends

• Landed Costs of Imported Crude Oil by Density
• Shift toward Heavier Crude Oils
• World Petroleum Consumption and World Crude Oil
  Refining Capacity
• Apparent Consumption of Refined Petroleum
  Products, World vs. U.S.
• World Oil Consumption 1990-2025

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Cost of Imported Crude Oil by Density

• Crude oil prices affected by demand, density
  sulfur content
• Price differential increases as prices increase

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Decreasing Light Crude Oil Share
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Consumption vs. Refining Capacity
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Potential Shift Toward Lighter Products

• In 2002, market share of motor gasoline,
  distillate fuel and jet fuel equaled 60 percent.
• World petroleum demand projected to increase by
  50 percent by 2030.

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Potential Shift Toward Lighter Products
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Refinery Schematic
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Refinery Flow Diagram
POLYMERIZATION
ALKYLATION
VAC GAS OIL
SOLVENT EXTRACTION
LUBE BASE STOCKS
PROPANE DEASPHALTER
GASOLINE, NAPHTHA, AND MIDDLE DISTILLATES
VISBREAKER
FUEL OIL
ASPHALT
DELAYED COKER
GASOLINE, NAPHTHA, AND MIDDLE DISTILLATES
COKE
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Original Model Structure
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Enhanced Model Structure
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Enhanced Model Structure

• Includes five types of crude oil
• Six downstream processing technologies(1)
  hydro-cracker, (2) fluid cat-cracker,
  (3) coker, (4) reformer, (5) alkylation, and
  (6) polymerization
• Blending recipes
• Driven by demand for the 17 SAGE intermediate
  petroleum products

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Data Sources

• Oil and Gas Journal publishes
• Crude oil assay (e.g. distillation products)
• Refinery capacity
• Petroleum Engineer
• I-O coefficients for down stream processing units
• Product recipe and/or blending specifications
• IEA, EIA, and Oil and Gas Journal
• End-use demand

17
Questions for the Committee

• Adequate detail for trade analysis?
• Include octane constraints?
• Are there better data sources for calibration?

18
Thank you

• John.Staub_at_eia.doe.gov
• 202-586-6344
• Phillip.Tseng_at_eia.doe.gov
• 202-287-1600