A desired energy mix for the U.S in the year 2000

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• A desired energy mix for the U.S in the year 2000
• Presented By
• Abe Al-Qudah
• Mike Lackore

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• Introduction

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• It is serious folks. Look at the wars
• Oil is about 50 of our energy alternative
• 640 Billion Barrel only 28 years

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The United States ???

• Largest producer and consumer
• Largest coal reserve in the world (27)
• Largest Uranium resource (25)

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Why analytic hierarchy process

• Multi task handling procedure
• Elements ? Groups ? Chain of Hierarchy

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Steps

• Define the problem
• Structure the hierarchy
• Construct a pair wise comparison matrix
• For all levels
• Consistency evaluation

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Steps Continued

• Relative importance
• Prioritize
• Derive a desired energy mix index

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Factors affecting the decision

• Availability
• Social Impacts
• Health, Safety and Environmental Impacts
• National Security
• Costs

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Hard Path or Soft Path

• Hard Path Rapid expansion of the centralized
  high technologies
• Soft Path Combines a prompt commitment to energy
  conservation and rapid development of renewable
  energy sources.
• AHP is Both

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Fuel Options

• Coal
• Advantages
• - Abundance and availability of technology to
  convert it into gas to liquid. There is an
  identified 1.731 trillion tons
• Disadvantages
• - Health and environmental effects

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Fuel Options--Continued

• Nuclear Power
• 838,000 tons of Uranium
• Technology is available
• Less expensive
• Less damage to the environment
• But ?
• Nuclear plants is and Nuclear waste is a
  headache

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Fuel Options--Continued

• Oil
• Only this decade and then what???
• Natural Gas
• only 10 years (time to panic)

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Fuel Options--Continued

• Solar Energy
• -In 1978, the goal was 20 by the year 2000
• Now? It is 6.4
• Advantage
• inexhaustible and less pollution trouble

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Fuel Options--Continued

• Disadvantage
• - High capital cost
• - Difficult to store or transmit
• - It is intermittent in nature which requires
  back up systems.

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Fuel Options--Continued

• Conservation
• Other Sources
• Geothermal
• Oil shale
• Tar sands

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Example
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• Perron-Frobenius Theorem
• A is consistent if and only if

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Consistency Index CI

• 1-
• 2- Consistency Ratio CI/RI

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• Merci Bocou