Partisan Realignments in the US Schofield et al.

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Partisan Realignments in the US (Schofield et al.)
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Two questions

• Is politics one-dimensional? (i.e., is a
  Liberal-Conservative dimension sufficient?)
• Do you think that there is a good account of how
  electoral realignments in American politics
  actually occur?

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Partisan Realignments in the US

• Party realignments have long fascinated scholars
  of American politics
• However, no simple model has captured how these
  phenomena actually occur
• Until now

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Political Map of the US in 1896McKinley
(Republican) vs. Bryan (Democrat)
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Political Map of the US in 2004George Bush
(Republican) vs. John Kerry (Democrat)
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1896 vs. 2004

• Red states turn blue, and vice versa
• How did this happen?
• Why did this happen?
• Schofield et al. politics is two-dimensional!

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American politics is two-dimensional

• Economic dimension
• Social dimension

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1896 vs. 2004

• Why was the 2004 election the mirror image of the
  1896 election?
• Significant constituencies must have deserted
  each party, switching their allegiances

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Most likely candidates?

• Populists (D ? R)
• Cosmopolitans (R ? D)
• Look at survey data see if it supports this

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Evidence?

• Populists working-class, socially conservative
  voters
• Cosmopolitans middle-class, socially liberal
  voters

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Operationalization

• Populists individuals in the 16th percentile or
  below on annual income who oppose abortion
  regardless of circumstances
• Cosmopolitans individuals in the 68th percentile
  or above on annual income who support abortion

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Democratic vote, 1970s-2000s
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Conclusion?

• Data shows that in recent years populists moved
  away from the Democratic Party toward the
  Republican Party
• Also shows a movement of cosmopolitans in the
  opposite direction (R ? D)

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Additional resources

• Note if you are interested in finding more about
  this topic, see Norman Schofields papers at
  http//schofield.wustl.edu/schofieldpapers.html
• Especially  ACTIVISTS AND PARTISAN REALIGNMENT IN
  THE UNITED STATES American Political Science
  Review, 97(2) May 2003, and CRITICAL ELECTIONS
  AND POLITICAL REALIGNMENTS IN THE USA 1860-2000
  Political Studies, Vol 51, 217-240 2003