Terrestrial Observational Needs for Model Validation

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Terrestrial Observational Needs for Model
Validation
Permafrost Lab Geophysical Institute, UAF

• Andrew Slater Vladimir Romanovsky

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Terrestrial Model Validation A Framework

• Hierarchical Order of Terrestrial Validation
• 1st - Model Independent Forcing Parameters
• 2nd - Primary Variables Fluxes, Snow
• 3rd - Integrators Soil Temp Moisture, Runoff
• Spatial Scale
• Point / Process case
• Large Scale, Big Picture case
• Temporal Scale
• Timestep, Daily, Monthly, Annual

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Climate System Model Perspective

• Feedback Variables
• Albedo, LW?, Sensible Latent Flux, Drag (Atmo)
• Runoff (Ocean)
• Controlling Variables
• Parameters
• Initial Conditions Inertial (e.g. Permafrost)
• Arctic Variables
• Snow
• Permafrost
• Glaciers Ice Sheets
• Carbon

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Model Independent Forcing Data
Alter
DFIR
Nipher
Wyoming
Photos NCAR
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Primary Variables Surface Fluxes

• Complete forcing
• Independent Data
• Same Point
• Full Annual Cycle
• Long Term

Sensible
Sensible Heat Flux (Wm-2)
LSM CLM CLM-T Obs
Latent
Latent Heat Flux (Wm-2)
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Primary Variables Latent Heat Flux
CLM
LSM
RMSE 30.66
RMSE 45.75
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Points Processes FluxNet Towers
Very few in high latitudes
60 N
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Primary Variables Albedo (Local Data)
Council, Alaska
Sturm et al., 2005
CSS Lab, California
Photos A. Slater
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Primary Variables Albedo (MODIS data)
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Primary Variables Snow (Stations)
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Primary Variables Snow (Station based depth)
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Primary Variables Snow (Satellite SWE)
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Integrators Soil
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Integrators Soil
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Integrators Total Basin Runoff
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Validation Issues

• Observation error
• Representativeness error
• Accuracy Precision
• Model Interpretation
• Translating model variable to observation
• What is acceptable error?
• Reanalysis (?)
• Calibration
• Assimilation

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Questions, Discussion or Comments?Thanks!