A Taste for Disaster

1
A Taste for Disaster
The historical record can be searched for
disasters but why not search instead for
prudent management?
2
Tools for Knowledge of the Past

• Archaeology
• Documents, maps, etc
• Environmental proxies
• Oral tradition

3
A Way ForwardMultiple Lines of Evidence
Correlation ? robust explanation Imperfect
Correlation return to data with more
questions, get more and different data
4
Can we Find Similar Patterns in Societies that
Endure?

• Flexibility in governance
• Diversity of practice and resources
• Knowledge of local conditions

5
Integrated History and Future of People on Earth
(IHOPE)

• 2003 IGBP/IHDP joint meeting in Banff
• Summer Dahlem planning meeting
• Summer Dahlem conference
• October Sustainable Futures in Towada, Japan
• November ESSP meeting in Beijing
• 2006 January IHOPE Stockholm SciPlan meeting
• 2006 March Resilience an e-cooridor in
  Akita, Japan
• 2007 January Dahlem conference book- in 2nd
  printing
• November IHOPE synthesis paper Ambio
• 2008 January SAR in Santa Fe Data and SW US
• September 1st of 3 NCEAS IHOPE working groups
• 2009 January Maya Meeting in Santa Fe (SAR)
• June AIMES Young Scholars Network
• April e-corridor in Japan (two meetings)

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Learning from Deep Past the Maya

• Under the auspices of IHOPE, the fractious
  international community of Maya archaeologists
  agreed to a collaboration across six regions
• These regions are representative of Maya
  environmental and cultural variability and
  complexity

7
Six Maya Regions
8
Learning from Deep Past the Maya

• How did an ancient population manage their
  environment?
• Prior to economic and social collapse a thousand
  years ago, the fragile, highly engineered Maya
  ecosystem sustained ten million people for over
  1500 years
• What were successful strategies for Maya
  sustainability prior to major societal
  breakdown?
• What combination of human and environmental
  factors led to the collapse?

9
Learning from Today Climate Variability Poses
Challenges to EU Agricultural Policy
2003
2008
Summer Rainfall in Europe 2003
The 2003 heat wave and drought followed a major
drought in 2002
The endless rains of 2007une saison de
moississure
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Unpredictable Climatic Variability Increased
Agricultural Vulnerability
The seasonal rhythm is broken

• the variability of weather has increased in the
  past decade
• out of season weather ruins harvests, makes
  planning difficult
• human societies respond effectively to weather
  extremes but
• not to highly variable short term conditions
• the most variable period in French history was
  the decade
• before the French Revolution

11
Regional Differences must be Incorporated into
Agricultural Policy
EU subsidies afford farmers little flexibility in
the face of increased seasonal variability.
In Burgundy (France), subsidy-driven increase in
herd size

• Favors pasture over other land uses
• Destroys hedgerows and deciduous cover
• Reduces wild species populations
• Diminishes water retention in pastures
• Increases erosion
• Compromises herd health
• Endangers regional economy

12
Integrated History and future Of People
on Earth From Costanza, R. L. Graumlich, W.
Steffen, C. Crumley, J. Dearing, K. Hibbard, R.
Leemans, C. Redman, and D. Schimel. 2007.
Sustainability or Collapse What Can We Learn
from Integrating the History of Humans and the
Rest of Nature? Ambio 36522-527
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Global Integration

• Coordinated Methods enhance Cooperation
• Global Perspective addresses Fundamental Issues
• Integrated Global/Regional Scales generate New
  Research Questions
• Comparative Regional Perspective facilitates
  Insights
• Long Term History reveals Patterns
• Diversity enhances Resilience
• Opportunities to Increase Knowledge must be
  Cultivated, Coordinated, and Supported

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For more information contact Dr. Kathy
Hibbard AIMES Executive Officer kathyh_at_ucar.edu
Dr. Carole L. Crumley University North
Carolina/ Stockholm Resilience Centre crumley_at_unc.
edu Dr. Sverker Sörlin Royal Institute of
Technology/ Stockholm Resilience
Centre sorlin_at_kth.se
IHOPE website http//www.aimes.ucar.edu/activiti
es/ihope.shtml