Development in the Planetary phase of Sustainability

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• Development in the Planetary phase of
  Sustainability
• Adaptation and Sustainable Development
• Earth System Science and Society
• IGBP 20 year celebration
• 18th Sept 2007
• Johan Rockström
• Stockholm Environment Institute
• Stockholm Resilience Centre

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A biosphere shaped by humanity
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The Planetary Response
The Planetary Response to global change drivers
(Steffen et al., 2004)
From Steffen et al. 2004
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20 yr after Bruntland, 20 yr of IGBPA need for
redefinition of Sustainable Development

• Think Globally, act Locally, not enough, now we
  need to think and act globally
• Sectoral, incremental approaches inadequate
• Static view of the environment leads to wrong
  policies and development
• Society and Nature are
• Interdependent social-ecological systems
• Adaptive complex systems
• Temporal and spatial Feedbacks, Surprise and
  Uncertainty, periods of gradual and abrupt change
  are part of normality
• Values, world views, Paradigms, Culture,
  Equity, fundamental elements of sustainable
  development
• Growing evidence of human impacts on planetary
  processes
• Growing evidence of risk for major threshold
  effects

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The Development Challenge

• 800 million malnourished
• 1.1 billion poor
• 70 poor live in rural areas and depend on
  land/water based ecosystem services
• Agriculture a key to poverty alleviation and
  socio-economic development
• Global change and local environmental degradation
  eroding capacity to achieve the MDGs
• Social and Ecological vulnerabilities on the
  increase
• Frequency of environmental shocks on the increase
• Disasters hit vulnerable communities hardest
• Innovations in management and governance give
  hope

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• The institutional capacities to manage the
  earths ecosystems are evolving more slowly than
  mans overuse of the same systems (UN MEA, 2005)

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Ecosystem ServicesThe wealth ecosystems generate
for us humans
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Human Pollinators
Apple plantations in Southern Chine
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The disaster nexus
Social and Ecological Vulnerability on the
Increase
Global Change drives new and stronger Hazards
Governance remains static and reactive
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Shocks and Resilience
FRAGILE FUTURE ?
AMPLITUDE (FREQUENCY) OF SHOCK
PAST PRESENT FUTURE ?
SOCIAL IMPACT OF SHOCK
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Number of natural disasters registered in the
EM-DAT Database 1900-2003
Source EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database. http//www.em-dat.net, UCL -
Brussels, Belgium
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Relationship between rainfall and cereal
production in Burkina Faso
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Global Water Hot-spots

Geographic patterns of climate change impacts on
water resources are consistent between
GCMs Arnell 2004
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Adaptation to Climate ChangeAn urgent
development challenge
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Risk social collapse

• Margaret Beckett secretary of state/UK risk
  of 200 million climate refugees

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Global Environmental Change and Human Development
Climate Change
Growing Vulnerability
Degradation of ecosystem services
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The evolution of GEC and Development strands of
thinking
Processes of social development - Poverty
Alleviation Environment AND Development
Human Dimensions Impacts of GEC and Impacts of
Globalisation on the Environment
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Positive feedbacks, Regime Shifts and Tipping
Points
Food Crisis
Ecosystem Crisis
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Poverty Crisis
Lifestyle crisis
Governance Mismatch
The Development Dilemma
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Branch Points
Global Environmental Change and Development at
a branch point?
Branch Points
Periods of Gradual change and abrupt
change Incremental change and social
transformations
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Concluding remarksA new complex environment for
Development

• Not only
• Humanity entered the Anthropocene
• Societies complex and inter-dependent
  social-ecological systems
• Ecosystem service key to socio-economic
  development
• Alsogrowing realisation that
• Global environmental change starting to undermine
  poor peoples chance of development
• Socio-ecological systems evolve along
  un-predictible, non-linear paths characterised by
  surprise, and often abrupt change, crossing of
  tipping-points
• Cross-scale interactions and positive feedbacks

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Concluding remarksRace between Development and
Ecological collapse

• We dont know how to live without growth
• It is our only sure recipe for overcoming the
  grotesque global inequality
• No country, howsoever rich, knows how to survive
  without it
• We will face major ecological collapse if growth
  continues on its existing pattern, because it
  leads to climate change and ecological destruction

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Concluding remarksImplications for the global
community

• Protect the development process that after a
  long time is showing real signs of narrowing
  inequality. Two key indicators are the
  bookends
• Protect the growth rate of China
• Support a growth transition in Africa
• De-couple this growth from climate and ecological
  impact
• Wean rich countries from growth-addiction

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Concluding remarksActions needed

• We may be reaching a branch point in terms of
  addressing global change and development
• Urgent need for integration between global change
  and development research
• Necessary to bridge science on global
  environmental change with development efforts
  (the GEC-MDG challenge)
• Time is ripe for such integration

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Thank You!
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Accelerated Change
Historical transitions are speeding up.
Modern Era
Early Civilization
Stone Age
105 104 103 102

Years Before Present
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Dominating paradigms
Planetary Phase