A Changing California: Demography, Economy, and Income Inequality

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A Changing California Demography, Economy,
and Income Inequality

• Presented by
• Manuel Pastor
• UC Santa Cruz
• May 2004

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Leading the U.S. in Demographic Change
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Californias Demography, 2000-2050
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Californias Demography, 2000-2050
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L.A. Countys Demography, 2000-2050
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L.A. Countys Demography, 2000-2050
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Californias Demography, Age Structure
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Californias New Economy Leading in Technology
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Dot.com to Dot.bomb . . .
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Tale of Two Recessions

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California Also Leading in Inequality . . .

• Considering the ratio of the top fifth of
  families to bottom fifth of families, we are the
  fourth most unequal state

• Considering the ratio of the top fifth of
  families to middle fifth of families, we are the
  third most unequal state

• And we are becoming more unequal faster than
  forty five other states.

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Long Term Trends in Inequality
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Who Gained and Lost in the Upswing
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Region Matters
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Race Matters
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It Isnt Just Immigration
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It Isnt Just Unemployment
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Who Are the Working Poor?
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Who Are the Working Poor?
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Where Are the Working Poor?
Location of Residence Defined as areas where
(150) poverty rates exceeds 25, and labor force
participation is above average for poor
areas.
Location of Job Defined by industrial
composition for those who have full-time or
significant work and head household living below
150 percent of the poverty line
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Map of Working Poor, with No Pop-ups
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Map of Working Poor, with Pop-ups
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Growth The Great Equalizer?

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Education and Training is a Must  

• In explaining the growing wage inequality in the
  California and the nation, several main culprits
•   globalization
•   technology

• Both raise the wage premium, and education
• can close the gap

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Education and Wages, 1980-2001
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Relative Education Levels in California
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Who Do You Know?
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Bridging Difference in New Communites

• Black-Latino Relations
• New tensions
• Related interests, other networks

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Thinking Regionally . . .

• Community Isolation
• Disconnection from regional economy, political
  power, and policy opportunities
• Lack of bridging social capital to connect to
  key sources of power
• Importance of thinking and linking to the
  region

• Individual Isolation
• Skill mismatch
• Spatial mismatch
• Social mismatch limited networks to employment

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Job Openings in the New Economy
Network engineer or programmer? Hmm . . .
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Lifting the Floor Health Insurance
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Looking Local . . .

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Looking for Work?
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Mayfair
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Mayfair
Figure 1 Mayfair 2004 Service Area and
Respondent Households
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Mayfair Challenges
Figure 8 Mayfair Respondents Educational
Attainment
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Mayfair
Figure 9 Hourly Wage Distribution
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Mayfair
Figure 12 Employment Industry Distribution
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Figure 18 Age and English Fluency as a Barrier
to Employment
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Figure 21 Social Security Barrier by Country of
Origin
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The Politics of Putting It All Together

• Pressing Needs Now More Than Ever
• Budget shortfalls will be an excuse for some to
  forget the bottom but equity is not a luxury

• Universal and Particular Approaches
• Understand that Latino issues are, in large part,
  California issues

• Face-to-face and Race-to-race
• Encourage conversations and collaboration to
  break barriers

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Restoring the California Promise

• Public Institutions, Individual Progress
• Message A California Story
• Offering a Vision of What We Have Been and Could
  Be