Global Climate Change

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Global Climate Change

• And Public Policy

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Key Policy Documents

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
  Change  
• Kyoto Protocol

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Some Background Stuff

• Environmental problems public policy responses
  take place at the juncture of the natural world
  and human behavior, which can be frustrating
• But, this is the hand which we have been dealt,
  so

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Human Realities

• Market failure (externalities)
• Time frames
• Our life span
• Election cycle
• Jurisdictional (political) boundaries
• International
• National

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Human Realities, cont.

• Different actors, different positions
• Getting agreement on anything often requires
  bargaining, compromise

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International Environmental Policy Formation
Takes Place

• In the context of national sovereignty
• Through negotiations leading to treaties among
  sovereign states
• In an effort to form regimes (sets of
  institutions, agreed-upon behaviors, etc. aimed
  at addressing a problem or issue
• Conventions
• Protocols

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National Sovereignty

• Nation states may largely do as they wish within
  their own boundaries
• Cooperation on boundary-spanning problems is
  necessary, but is often difficult to achieve
• Nations may agree to cooperate with others, but
• There is no authoritative international
  legislative body
• There is no authoritative international executive
• So, as a general rule, nation states may not be
  compelled to do that which they do not wish to
  do, or not do that which they do wish to do

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Conventions

• What?
• Multiparty treaties
• Aimed at establishing cooperation in responding
  to a specific issue or set of issues
• May be joined by additional nations after having
  been adopted

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Some Important Terms

• Signatories - The nations which have signed the
  treaty
• Parties - The nations which have signed
  ratified the agreement (i.e. are full
  participants in the agreement)
• Secretariat -- The administrative body which is
  responsible for implementing the agreement (may
  be UN body, e.g. UNEP, or free standing, e.g.
  Climate Change)

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Some Important Terms, cont.

• Framework conventions
• Establish basic procedures, or rules of the
  game for dealing with a problem
• May include a little substance (but not much)
• Frequently provide for a regular Conference of
  Parties (COP)
• Meetings of nations party to the treaty (,
  often, other interested parties) to discuss
  implementation, progress, enforcement,
  modifications, etc.

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Some Important Terms, cont.

• Protocols Follow up agreements which deal with
  substance
• e.g. Vienna Convention on Ozone (1985) Montreal
  Protocol (1987 1990)
• Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)
  Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• NGOs IGOs

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NGOs (Non-governmental Organizations )

• Private interest groups (e.g. Greenpeace)
• Often lobby/pressure national governments
  international meetings
• Have been very active in climate change
• Have a (sort of) formal role in Kyoto

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IGOs or INGOs (International Governmental
Organizations )

• International bureaucracies, often affiliated
  with the United Nations
• Can play an important role
• Agenda-setting
• Implementation
• Funds handling

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A Few Important IGOs

• United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)
• United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
• Global Environment Facility (GEF)
• A funding entity designed do aid developing
  nations afford the costs of environmental
  protection
• Originally got its funding from World Bank UNEP

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Negotiating Environmental Treaties

• Environmental treaties are negotiated on an ad
  hoc basis
• Participants are self-selected
• One nation, one vote
• Nation states negotiate vote
• NGOs do not - but they can lobby (depending on
  circumstances) participate in discussions

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Negotiating Environmental Treaties, cont.

• North South (developing nations v. developed
  nations) disputes are common, and have influenced
  the climate change debate
• Treaties with global implications may be
  negotiated by a minority of nations
• Treaty negotiations may not include key nations
• Treaties which are in force may not include key
  nations

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Nation States Environmental Treaties

• Their international positions arise from
• Domestic political factors
• National (self?) interest
• Perceived costs, risks ( benefits) of an
  environmental regime
• International politics
• Subnational actors (states, cities)
• Existing commitments (treaties, etc.)
• Scientific evidence

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Nation States Environmental Treaties, cont.

• They play various roles in making international
  environmental policy
• Lead state
• Supporting State
• Swing state
• Veto state

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The U.S. International Climate Change Policy

• We participated in the negotiations leading up to
  the Framework Convention on Climate Change the
  Kyoto Protocol
• We signed both treaties
• We have ratified the Framework Convention, but
  not the Kyoto Protocol ( President Bush has
  indicated that he will not push to do so)

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U.S. Treaty Processes

• Ratification
• If he wishes to try for ratification, the
  president must submit the treaty to the Senate
  for ratification approval
• The Foreign Affairs committee (, possibly, other
  committees) review it, , if they wish to do so,
  send it to the full Senate for vote
• A two-thirds majority is necessary for
  ratification
• Clinton, Bush Kyoto

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U.S. Treaty Processes, cont.

• Implementing legislation
• Many treaties are not complete in of
  themselves. The Congress must pass further
  (implementing) legislation before we really begin
  to perform our treaty obligations (e.g. the
  Montreal Protocol the 1990 Clean Air Act
  Amendments)
• Goes through ordinary legislative procedures
• Simple majorities (50 plus one) in both houses
• Committees
• Presidential approval

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U.S. Treaty Processes, cont.

• After implementing legislation has been adopted
  it may be subjected to court challenge
• It must be implemented by the bureaucracy
• Assignment to a specific agency
• Funding, etc.
• Rule-making procedures are complex, so are
  enforcement actions

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Things To Remember About U.S. Policy Making
Processes

• There are a lot of opportunities to kill proposed
  policies (e.g. a treaty ratification), proponents
  must win in all venues, opponents need only win
  in one
• Even winning in the Congress White House does
  not guarantee success

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Factors Influencing U.S. Climate Change Policy

• American preference for incremental approaches to
  policy making
• Concerns re.
• China, India ( other developing nations)
• Impact on our economy
• Partisanship
• Political Seasons
• Other political agenda items
• Interest groups
• And many other factors

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Climate Change Convention

• Negotiated prior to 1992 Earth Summit, but
  opened for signing at that conference
• 40 Annex 1 nations (largely industrialized)
  agreed to take the lead role in cutting projected
  2000 emissions back to 1990 levels.
• No deadlines
• No post-2000 targets

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Climate Change Convention, cont.

• Entered into force in 1994 when the necessary 50
  nations had ratified
• Weak on specifics due to
• U.S. opposition
• Developing nations opposition to having emissions
  controls applied to themselves
• Support for a stronger treaty appeared early (at
  first COP)

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Kyoto Protocol Provisions

• Annex 1 (industrialized) nations
• Agreed to reduce their overall greenhouse gas
  emissions by at least 5.2 below 1990 levels
  between 2008 2012
• Some differentiation on target reductions among
  those nations (see Table 2)
• Developing nations
• No targeted reductions
• No opt-in clause whereby developing nations
  could voluntarily adopt emissions reduction
  targets

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Kyoto Provisions, cont.

• Flexibility mechanisms (for cost control)
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Developed nations may finance projects that
  reduce 3rd world emissions, thereby gaining
  credits applicable to their own mandatory limits
• E.g Carbon sinks
• Joint Implementation
• Similar to CDM, but involves western,
  market-oriented nations and former Soviet bloc
  nations (economies in transition)

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Kyoto Provisions, cont.

• Emissions trading
• Annex 1 nations which have achieved their
  commitments can sell excess emissions credits to
  other Annex 1 nations which are having
  difficulties in meeting their credits
• A U.S. initiative, based on similar provisions in
  1990 Clean Air Act amendments

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Bringing Kyoto Into Force

• Needed to be ratified by 55 nations, representing
  55 of 1990 CO2 emissions
• U.S. is biggest emitter, our refusal to ratify
  made it difficult to assemble the required number
  of right ratifications, and
• Encouraged some nations to seek special deals in
  return for their ratification (e.g. Russia
  Ukraine need not reduce below their 1990 levels)

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Some Issues With Kyoto

• Are the regimes goals mechanisms sufficient to
  accomplish goals? In a meaningful time frame?
• Will emissions trading be effective at the
  international level?
• Weak enforcement mechanisms
• Special treatment for Russia (not required to
  reduce below 1990 levels, lots of unused
  Soviet-era industrial capacity, etc.)

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Some Issues, cont.

• Compliance
• Reporting, etc. is weak, may be difficult to tell
  when a nation is not complying
• What to do if a nation is not complying?
• Developing nations
• Some are not big contributors to the problem, but
  others are
• Makes it more difficult to persuade national
  leaders to agree to the treaty

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Some Issues, cont.

• Can the regime be effective without U.S. (
  Australia) ratification

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The U.S. Current Policy

• Based on
• Some questioning of the existence of climate
  change
• Belief that human activity doesnt cause it
• Belief that it will not be disruptive, etc.
• Kyoto will not go to the Senate
• Voluntary controls

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Kyoto The U.S.

• Could Still Be Ratified
• Things can change rapidly (e.g. acid rain 1990
  CAAA)
• Elections
• Agenda setting

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Is Kyoto Ratification Necessary?

• State-level action is always possible
• California
• Federal legislation, even in the absence of
  ratification, could accomplish worthwhile
  objectives
• Incremental change can accomplish a lot
• Politics is different, may be an easier sell
• E.g.s carbon taxes, subsidies for clean
  technologies initiatives

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