www.brazil.ox.ac.uk

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www.brazil.ox.ac.uk
Centre for Brazilian Studies UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
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2006 in Numbers

• President Vice President
• All 27 Governors
• 27 Senators (1/3 of Senate this year)
• All 513 federal deputies
• All 1059 state legislators
• 125 million eligible voters

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)
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Municipalities Won in 2004
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Population Governed
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June 6, 2005 Roberto JeffersonBreaks the
Mensalão Scandal
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Main Consequences, June through October 2005

• Resignations and casualties Dirceu, José
  Genoino, João Paulo Cunha, Delúbio Soares
• Two major congressional investigations
• PT squanders ethical image
• Key defections from PT, left wing challenge
  within the party
• Declining popularityfor a while!
• New hope for the opposition in 2006

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Lula has muita responsabilidadefor cases of
corruption in his government(DataFolha, October
20-21)
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O PT atrapalha muitoo presidente(DataFolha,
October 20-21, 2005)
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How Lula Got His Groove Back
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Shifting Bases of Support
After 1 Year (15.12.03) After 3 Years
(21.02.06)
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GDP growth modest (source IPEADATA)
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Solid inflation control
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Falling unemployment
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Lula not linked to Real like FHC
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Importance of Bolsa Família

• Families earning less than R100 get R50 plus
  15 per child (max R95)
• In 2004, program was reaching 59 of eligible
  familes
• In 2005, this increased to 77
• By end of 2006, possibly 100 (about 11 million
  families)

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Minimum wage 22 higher
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Sources of Lulas Turnaround

• Personal political capital the Teflon cushion
  was there when he needed it
• Hands-off management style distance
• Good timing economic recovery and maturing
  social policies
• Scandal fatigue corruption in Congress draws
  away attention
• Meltdown of PT gives Lula a free hand,
  facilitates alliance building
• Incumbent advantages the FHC playbook
• Basis of legitimacy has shifted over time

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The challengers
Geraldo Alckmin PSDB Polling high 20s
Heloísa Helena PSOL Polling 10-12
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Composition of the Senate
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Composition of the Chamber
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Characteristics (so far!)of the 2006 Campaign

• A plebiscitarian quality (incumbent seeking
  reelection)
• No alternative center of gravity to the
  presidency
• Increasing distance of Lula from PT
• A campaign in search of policy issues
• Resilience of Lula poll numbers
• Inability of opposition to gain traction
• Few scenarios (at present) for shakeup of status
  quo

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Contact

• Timothy J. Power
• Centre for Brazilian Studies
• University of Oxford
• 92 Woodstock Road
• Oxford OX2 7ND, United Kingdom
• 44 (0)1865 284 471 (fax 284 461)
• timothy.power_at_brazil.ox.ac.uk