Energy Cost Escalation Peak Oil

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Energy Cost Escalation /Peak Oil
Ken Dwyer Ph.D. Candidate Dept. of Computing
Science University of Alberta
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International Energy Agency (IEA)

• Monitors energy markets for the world's 26
  most-advanced economies, including the U.S.,
  Japan and all of Europe.
• It acts as a counterweight in the market to the
  views of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
  Countries.
• World Energy Outlook 2008 report to be released
  on November 12, 2008.
• See http//www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

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IEA World Energy Outlook

• The Energy Business Review previewed the upcoming
  report (Nov. 4, 2008)
• The IEA report has highlighted longer term
  supply side constraints, despite the precipitous
  correction in world oil prices of late, as
  current depletion rates outstrip future demand.
• Conventional production will effectively remain
  static, rising from 70.4m b/d in 2007 to just
  75.2m b/d in 2030, as 'new gains' and 'old
  losses' balance out.
• The credit crunch could prove to be the calm
  before the storm as far as pain at the pumps is
  concerned.

• Source IEA report underlines long term supply
  side challenges for oil markets. Energy Business
  Review, Nov. 4, 2008.

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IEA World Energy Outlook

• Based on a draft, the IEA report Wall Street
  Journal reported (May 22, 2008)
• The world's premier energy monitor is preparing
  a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply
  forecast
• "The oil investments required may be much, much
  higher than what people assume," said Fatih
  Birol, the IEA's chief economist and the leader
  of the study. "This is a dangerous situation."
• In November, the IEA said its analysis of
  projects known to be in the works suggested that
  the world could face a shortfall by 2015 of as
  much as 12.5 million barrels a day, unless there
  was a sharp drop in expected demand.

• Source Energy watchdog warns of oil-production
  crunch. The Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2008.

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Challenges

• Food security
• Heating homes and buildings
• Transportation
• Particulary trucking
• Closely related to food security

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Peak Oil Resolution

• On April 11th, 2006, San Francisco became the
  first major city in North America to pass a
  resolution about our energy predicament.
• The resolution calls for peak oil to be
  considered a serious issue, a city wide
  assessment funded by the mayor to be undertaken,
  and the oil depletion protocol to be endorsed.
• Similar measures taken in Austin, TX Portland,
  OR Oakland, CA Hamilton, ON Burnaby, BC, and
  other cities...
• See http//www.postcarboncities.net

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• Thank you for your time.