PV Industry View

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PV Industry View

• Mark FarberVP, Strategic PlanningEvergreen
  Solar, Inc.

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Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NasdaqESLR)
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Evergreens String Ribbon process
String Ribbon
Ingot Based
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Renewables in perspective

• PV is 0.1 world market share of electric utility
  capacity

Source Eric Martinot, World Bank PV Energy
Systems
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Close-up view of PVs 4 GW
Compound annual growth 22 20-year43
5-year61 in 2004
Source PV Energy Systems
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Germany, Japan dominate
Source Solarbuzz, Evergreen analysis
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1 - Wireless power

• Lowest cost, highest reliability solution for
  remote power requirements
• Applications
• Remote homes
• Recreational vehicles
• Instrumentation
• Agricultural
• Remote lighting

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2 - Rural electrification

• Targeting 2 billion people worldwide without
  electricity
• Applications
• Solar home systems
• Village power
• Water pumping
• Commercial / industrial

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3 - On-grid market

• Environmentally driven market, largely
  government-subsidized
• Applications
• Residential
• Commercial / industrial
• Roof tiles other building products

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Local market drivers

• Sunlight and local electricity price are major
  drivers of local economics

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On-grid applications drive growth
5-year CAGROn-grid 53Off-grid 16
Source Solarbuzz
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US market somewhat more balanced

• Off-grid still substantial
• On-grid fastest growing, particularly commercial

Source Solarbuzz, 2003 data
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Crystalline silicon dominates
... but all technologies are growing in a growing
market
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Global competition

• 7 of top 10 are large multinationals
• No US-owned companies in top 10

Source PV Energy Systems
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Regional trends
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Solar silicon coming mainstream

• Solar will soon dominate semiconductor
• New silicon technology under development to lower
  cost
• High capital cost, long lead time capacity being
  added

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Substantial local content

• Non-module costs are decreasing, driven by local
  scale and learning (CEC example 8.83/W in 2004
  ? 8.57/W in 2005)

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Forecast

• Market
• 20-40 growth next 5 years
• New markets Spain, Portugal, new US states,
  China, Korea, ...
• Evolutionary product designs, distribution
  channel maturation, market development ...
• Supply and cost
• Crystalline silicon continues to dominate, but
  rising tide...
• Silicon shortage peaks 2005-07
• Return to trend of declining prices throughout
  value chain

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Summary

• Enormous market opportunity
• Growing in subsidized markets
• Conventional technology scaling next generation
  emerging