April%202000%20COCUS%20and%20NPA%20Exhaust%20Analysis

1
April 2000 COCUS and NPA Exhaust Analysis

• NANPA Report to the NANC
• May 23, 2000

2
COCUS Overview

• NANPA is required to forecast availability of
  NANP numbering resources and to ensure the
  continued viability of the NANP
• Predict area code exhaust
• Predict NANP exhaust
• April 2000 COCUS
• Distributed January 2000 with input due back by
  March 1, 2000
• Requested Data
• Company Name, Address, Service Provider Type,
  Operating Company Number (OCNs), Contact
  Information
• CO Codes assigned by NPA as of January 1, 2000
• Yearly Forecasted CO Codes for 2000 - 2004
• Telephone Number (TN) utilization data

3
NPA Exhaust Analysis

• Input
• April 2000 COCUS survey responses provided by
  service providers (analysis included submissions
  provided to NANPA by April 20, 2000)
• Historical CO code assignment data by segment
  over past three years
• Number of service providers and their expansion
  over the same time period
• Recent NPA relief activity
• Other Data Points
• CO code assignments as of April 1, 2000
• Total Number of Codes available for assignment
• Rate centers per NPA
• CO Code rationing amounts
• Other miscellaneous data (e.g., last relief,
  split vs. overlay)

4
NPA Exhaust Analysis

• Projecting growth resulting from new entrants
  and/or expansion of footprint in an NPA
• Number of Rate Centers in the NPA
• Expected Number of New Entrants
• Expected Amount of Footprint expansion
• Amount of time until NPA Exhaust
• NPA Exhaust Projection
• Forecasted CO code growth rate
• Potential number of CO codes required for
  non-forecasted growth over the life of the NPA
  (i.e., growth pool)
• NPA Months to Exhaust is the forecasted growth
  plus codes needed for non-forecasted growth
• Exhaust projections reviewed by NPA Relief
  Planning and Code Admin.
• Appropriate revisions made

5
NPAs in Rationing

• For NPAs in rationing, the projected exhaust was
  based upon the monthly rationed amount
• Identified in the report with an R
• A non-rationed projected NPA exhaust date was
  also developed
• Guiding principle - What would be the forecasted
  exhaust date if rationing was not in place?
• Sources of data to develop non-rationed demand
  included historical demand and/or COCUS
  submissions
• Variables included length of time in rationing
  (i.e., was there pre-rationing historical demand
  available) and COCUS submissions (i.e., April
  2000 COCUS response rate for the NPA)

6
NANPA COCUS Observations

• Improved COCUS Response - The NPA average for
  survey responses represented approximately 85-90
  of total CO codes assigned (as of 1/1/00)
• Ongoing changes and additions to COCUS
  submissions as service providers updated
  forecasts and/or added NPAs
• Variances between historical demand vs. COCUS
  forecasted demand
• High historical demand but low COCUS demand and
  visa versa
• COCUS input for NPAs in rationing
• NANPA requested SPs to provide their demand of
  codes, regardless of rationing
• In some cases, forecasted demand was very high
• In some cases, forecasted demand was high in the
  closer years and then leveled off
• In some cases, forecasted demand was lower than
  the rationing amount

7
NANPA COCUS Observations

• Reclamation of Codes - Continued process of
  identifying and reclaiming codes unavailable for
  assignment
• Results were not as drastic as experienced
  between April and December 1999
• Reclamation activity centered around where NPA
  relief was in progress
• Reporting TN utilization
• Better response rate as compared to April 1999
• Some fairly large code holders did not provide
  utilization data

8
Next Steps

• Ongoing Analysis
• Continue to monitor actual CO code assignments
  with forecasted growth projections
• Review and revise individual NPA exhaust
  projections as necessary (e.g., large CO code
  assignment, large return of codes)
• NANP Exhaust Projection Schedule
• Review NANP exhaust projection assumptions with
  the NRO WG (completed May 18, 2000)
• Review NANP exhaust projection assumptions with
  NANC (May 23, 2000)
• Provide NANP exhaust projection at June 20-21,
  2000 NANC meeting