124

1
CO2 Mitigation Technologiesin the Transportation
Sector
Takeyoshi KATO Environmentally Compatible Energy
Strategies (ECS) International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) A-2361
Laxenburg, AustriaPhone (43 2236) 807 0 Fax
(43 2236) 71 313 Web www.iiasa.ac.at Annual
IEW Meeting 18-20 June 2002 at Stanford
University, USA
2
Contents

• Fuel economy and CO2 reduction cost of current
  vehicles
• Fuel economy and CO2 reduction cost of future
  vehicles
• Recent progress on prototype fuel-cell vehicles
• Estimates by the Office of Transportation
  Technologies (OTT), U.S. DOE
• Discussion
• Difference of fuel economy between test mode and
  actual use
• Conclusions
• Outlook on possible future work

3
Vehicle Type by Prime Mover

• Current Vehicle
• Internal Combustion Vehicle (ICE)
• Electric Vehicle (EV)
• Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) CNG, E85, M85,
  etc.
• Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Toyota Prius,
  Honda Insight, Honda Civic, etc.
• Future Vehicle
• Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) commercial in 2003 (?)

4
Fuel Economy of Current Vehicles
measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode
1 km/MJ (gasoline) 82 gallon/mile 2.87
L/100km 34.8 km/L
5
Driving Range of Current Vehicles
measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode
6
CO2 Coefficient of Fuels(electricity US
generation mix, 1998)
1
1
1
2
1
1
Sources 1. Argonne National Laboratory,
GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model,
Volume 1 Methodology, Development, Use, and
Results, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions
from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition,
OECD, 2000
7
CO2 Emission of Current Vehicles(electricity US
generation mix, 1998)
8
Commercial Hybrid Vehicles (HEVs)
Toyota (http//www.toyota.co.jp)
Prius (1997, 2001)
Estima (2001)
Crown (2001)
Honda (http//www.honda.co.jp)
Nissan (http//www.nissan.co.jp)
Insight (1999)
Tino (1999)
Civic (2001)
9
Reduction of CO2 Emissionsrelative to same model
with internal combustion engine
10
Calculation of CO2 Reduction Cost
CO2 reduction cost
US/ton
increase of annual cost reduction of annual CO2
emission

• Assumption
• Annual mileage 15,000 km/yr
• Annualization factor 10 /yr
• Fuel price in the U.S. in 2000
• Maintenance cost is not considered

(same between ICE and other vehicles)
11
CO2 Reduction Cost of Current Vehicles
relative to same carline vehicle with internal
combustion engine
Nissan Tino 802
Toyota Estima 111
Toyota Crown 56
Honda Civic 662
12
CO2 Reduction Cost of Future Power Plants with
CO2 Capture
Relative to same type plant without CO2 capture
13
Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCV)
Mercedes Benz Fuel Cell Sprinter (2001)
Ford Focus FCV (2001)
Volkswagen Bora (2002)
Honda FCX-V4 (2001) market in 2003
Toyota FCHV-4 (2001) market in 2003, (80,000 US)
14
Information available inProgram Analysis
Methodology, Quality MetricsOffice of
Transportation Technologies (OTT), U.S. DOE

• Vehicle Type (light-duty passenger cars) Large
  Car, Small Car, Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV),
  Minivan, Pickup Truck
• Prime Mover Internal Combustion Engine (ICE),
  Advanced Diesel (A-diesel), Flex Alcohol
  (Flex) Fuel Cell Hydrogen (FC-H2), Fuel Cell
  Gasoline (FC-gasoline) Spark Ignition Direct
  Injection (SIDI), Electric vehicle (EV) Hybrid
  Electric Vehicle 2x fuel economy (HEV 2x) and
  3x fuel economy (HEV 3x)
• Fuel Economy
• Vehicle Cost
• Maintenance Cost
• Status Year (initial 20002017 and 2030)

15
Fuel Economy and Cost of FCV in 2030 Estimated in
Program Analysis Methodology by OTT/DOE
Fuel Economy
Vehicle cost
DOE estimates
DOE estimates
16
Price and CO2 Emission of Hydrogen

• Production method
• Methane Reforming
• Gasification (Biomass, Coal, MSW)
• Electrolysis (Alkaline, PEM)
• Solar Energy
• Location
• Central or Distributed station
• On-board
• Transportation
• Pipeline or Truck

17
Estimate of Hydrogen Retail Price
Source The Environmental Assessment of Direct
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the
literature (draft), Edgar Hertwich
and Anders Stroemman (Norwegian University of
Science and Technology (NTNU)
18
Estimates of CO2 Coefficient
1
1
1
2
3
3
1
1
3
3
Sources 1. Argonne National Laboratory,
GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model,
Volume 1 Methodology, Development, Use, and
Results, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions
from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition,
OECD, 2000 3. Norwegian University of Science
and Technology,The Environmental Assessment of
Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An
analysis of the literature (draft), 2002
19
CO2 Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV (15,000 km/yr
in 2030)
CO2 reduction cost relative to ICE vehicle
CO2 emission
Source Program Analysis Methodology, Quality
Metrics, Office of Transportation Technologies,
U.S. DOE
20
Discussion
Problem in using test mode data for new type
vehicles because of different equipment from
conventional ICE vehicle

• For example, in case of HEV and EV
• Battery
• discharge during long time stop or no use
• Regenerative braking system
• additional factor for fuel economy
• recoverable kinetic energy depends on actual
  driving pattern

21
Comparison of Fuel Economy Between Actual Use and
Test Mode
Source http//auto.ascii24.com/auto24/e-nenpi/ran
king/ranking_index.html
22
Conclusions

• CO2 reduction cost of commercial HEV56 800
  US/ton-CO2 (15,000 km/yr)
• CO2 reduction potential of FCV is higher than HEV
• HEV might be more cost effective for CO2
  reduction than FCV in the medium run (2030)
• CO2 reduction cost of vehicles could be smaller
  in large vehicles (SUV, Minivan)
• CO2 reduction cost of future vehicles might be
  comparable to that of central power plant with
  CO2 capture technology (20 120 US/ton-CO2)

23
Outlook on Possible Future Work

• Cost and CO2 emission of hydrogen production and
  distribution
• Evaluation of fuel economy in actual vehicle use
• Evaluation for other regions in the world
  (CO2 emission of electricity, fuel cost, etc.)
• Assessment by using a global energy model

24
IIASAs CO2DB Database

• A tool for collecting and analyzing detailed data
  on carbon mitigation technologies
• Containing detailed technical, economic and
  environmental characteristics as well as data on
  innovation, commercialization and diffusion in
  some 2400 entries

25
THS-M (Toyota Hybrid System Mild) with Crown
The THS-M, or "mild hybrid," is a simpler and
less expensive alternative to our full-fledged
THS. A motor/generator is connected to the
engine's drive shaft via a belt and an
electromagnetic clutch. While stationary, the
engine shuts off and the electric motor runs the
air conditioner and other accessories. It also
powers the vehicle during startup. The engine
propels the vehicle under normal driving
conditions, while the motor generates electricity
to top off its battery. It also utilizes the
vehicle's kinetic energy to charge the battery
during deceleration and braking. This economical
system improves fuel efficiency by as much as 15
over a conventional power train.
source http//global.toyota.com
26
THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT) with ESTIMA
Hybrid
THS-C (Toyota Hybrid System-CVT) features a
gasoline engine, electric motor and CVT for
front-wheel power, and is designed for larger
cars and minivans. The most distinctive features
of the Estima Hybrid relative to the Prius are
the addition of an E-Four or rear-mounted,
rear-wheel-propelling electric motor, which
regulates itself and also coordinates electric
power distribution to all four wheels, providing
added kick during hard acceleration, and
electronic 4-wheel drive for improved traction on
slippery surfaces. THS-C and E-Four, together
with ECB (Electrically Controlled Brake system),
which provides efficient wheel-by-wheel brake
control and optimum management of the vehicles
regenerative brake system, give the Estima hybrid
double the fuel efficiency required under
Japanese government standards for 2010.
source http//global.toyota.com
27
World Share of Vehicles
Source The society of motor manufacturers and
Trader Ltd.(SMMT)
28
CO2 Emission in Electricity Generation
Source IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000
29
CO2 Emission of Current Vehicles
electricity generation mix Japan, 1998 (364
g-CO2/kWh)
electricity generation mix Japan, 1998 (91
g-CO2/kWh)
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Calculation of CO2 Reduction Cost
Cn Cc Ec En
CO2 reduction cost US/ton
C Cv/LT Cm Cf /year
Cn annual cost of new type vehicle Cc annual
cost of conventional ICE vehicle Cv vehicle
cost US Cm maintenance cost US/yr Cf
fuel cost US/yr En annual CO2 emission of
new type vehicle Ec annual CO2 emission of
conventional ICE vehicle LT lifetime (simple
pay-back time)
31
Price of Fuels in the U.S.(nationwide average
retail price in 2000, US)
Source The Alternative Fuel Price Report, U.S.DOE
32
Gasoline Retail Price
33
Vehicle Cost of Current Vehicles
34
Evaluation of OTT/DOEs Estimates
ref Tsuchiya, Kobayashi, Fuel Cell Cost
Study by Learning Curve, IEW, 2002 cost of
ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) assumed in
this presentation
35
Difference of Annual Cost from ICE(15,000 km/yr
in 2030)
HEV 2x
FCV
36
CO2 Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV (in initial
year and 2030)
HEV 2x
FCV
37
CO2 Reduction Cost Relative to ICE(5,000
30,000 km/yr in 2030)
38
Annual Cost with Carbon TaxLarge passenger cars,
2030
15,000 km/yr
30,000 km/yr
39
Fuel Economy of Large Passenger Cars Estimated
in Program Analysis Methodology by OTT/DOE
40
CO2 Emission per kilometerLarge passenger cars,
2030
Reduction of CO2 per km relative to ICE (Conv.)
CO2 emission per km
41
Hydrogen Production Cost