Title: From Brave New
1- From Brave New
- Unwired World to
- the Ever Smarter World
-
- Opportunities for Internet Innovators
- North American IPv6 Global Summit
- June 25, 2003
- By Alex Lightman
- Cal(IT)2 Scholar
- CEO, Chairman, Cofounder of Charmed Technology
- Conference Chairman, Global IPv6 Summit
2June, 2003 A Month of Milestones
- Invention of Ethernet, Bob Metcalfe, Xerox PARC,
Palo Alto, June, 1973 - TCP/IP (IPv4), Stanford University, Palo Alto,
June, 1973 - 100th Birthday of George Orwell, June 25, 2003
(Big Brother)
3Opening Thought
- Our primary objectives in implementing IPv6 are
to improve customer experiences while also
improving civilization for all humanity -
4Improve experience Getting 4 relationships/custo
mer
- Bank of America experienced churn.
- We were stuck at 13 million customers because 3
million would join but 3 million would leave each
year. - We found that if and when people had four or
more different relationships with B of A
(checking, savings, credit card, bill paying,
auto loan, mortgage) then our retention went UP
and our churn for these people went way down.
5Service Provider Revenues
Total Revenue
Old Sources
New Sources
Time
6Cambrian Explosion
Bacteria ?
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random
Search Evolution
Insects
Invertebrates
Complex Environmental Interaction
Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST
Collapse Development
Multicellularity Discovered
Vertebrates
570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after.
No new body plans since! Only new brain plans,
built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene
duplication). Body/brain plans eukaryotic
multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.
7What is a Commercial Explosion?
- Rapid growth of a new product / service
- Deep penetration of market
- Spawns new, supporting industry
- Transforms the economy
- Examples automobiles, PCs
8Drivers Of Commercial Explosions
- Satisfies a compelling consumer need
- Possibly one they didnt know they had
- Leads to deep penetration of the market
- Requires convergence of
- Technologies
- Government policy
- Standards
- Companies via partnerships and alliances
- Ultimate winners represent best trade-off along a
number of dimensions - Simple metrics not easy to define early on
- Transportation why did the gasoline powered
automobile win?
9Economics Powered by Convergence
- Convergence of devices and innovations clock,
axle, wheel, lever, odometer, steering,
speedometer, better tires, brakes, navigation
systems, CDs) with a dozen or more improvements
every year. - Convergence of networks (oil industry
consolidation, self service stations, national
highways, cheap maps, drivers licensing, parts,
used cars, repairs, warranties, AAA) with
improvements. - Many parallels to communications industry.
Success is about the convergence of multiple
device capabilities and of networks.
10Wanted IPv6 Prosumer Innovators
- We need people who create supply and demand for
new IPv6 services. Ministry of Science and
Technology, Madrid IPv6 Summit. - George Washington Carver (100 uses for peanut,
entire dinner, SW) - Thomas Edison (over 1,050 patents, direct
current, AC, and hundreds of way to use it) - Larry Smarr (from 100 scientists with SC access
to 30,000, Mosaic/IE, Apache). The importance of
CREATIVITY and VISION!
11Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption
1
- The basis for an explosion of evolutionary
experiments, followed by robust survivors. - Massive increase in feedback loops (output
changes input), assisting civilization. - Historical opportunity to increase
subscriptions, and thus service exports. - Million fold increase in sensors (and data)
- Commercial explosion, keep public interest.
12Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption
1
- 6. Give every person thousands of IPv6 addressed
nanodocs, reduce cancer, aging. - 7. Head start in 5 way race to be 1st in 4G and
win a multitrillion dollar grand prize. - 8. Augmented memory (hyper documentation of ones
life, uploading) and augmented reality (info
overlays). - 9. Endowing users with superpowers.
- 10. Computational collective intelligence.
13Feedback Loops The Ultimate Multiplier
- Feedback loops allow for learning outputs to
change behavior, prices, decisions - IPv6 adoption fosters HUGE feedback loops.
- Advanced civilizations are based on an ever
expanding quality, quantity and diversity of
feedback loops. IPv6 supports this growth. - Societies with the most sophisticated ecosystems
of feedback loops win in war and peace. IPv6
adoption will determine social progress, justice,
and prosperity.
14Trade Deficit Feedback Export Services!
- Services over 80 of US 11 T GDP.
- Annual deficit of 500 B in goods (about one
third oil, one third autos) - Annual surplus of 15 B in agriculture, 50 B in
services - Biggest leverage increase service exports from
less than 1 to 5 of US services. - First Next Gen Cluster has opportunity to double
GDP as service export and 4G hub.
15Microsofts advanced R D discovery
- Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R D for Microsoft
The most valuable thing weve learned is that
in the future everything that costs over 25
except food will be connected to the Internet. - IP a pico radio could compliment, then embrace
and extend, then replace, bar codes and RFID
tags. - Gillette just ordered 500,000 RFID tags.
Razorblade sweeping.
16Sensor subscriptions very valuable!
- Eric Frost 30 measures of oil extraction allows
doubling, from 35 to 70, of recoverable oil
from a given reservoir. - Will Recker World Wide Wagon Train of 737
million to 1 billion vehicles that exchange
information on the road ahead. - John Orcutt From Buoys to MEN (Marine
Environmental Networking). Weather prediction,
climate change, government. - Articles are on http//www.calit2.net. Search
site for Alex Lightman
17The Mobile High Performance InternetThe Next
Boom, and the Next 4 Relationships
Source Ericsson
18Wireless Billing
- Minute buckets
- Pre-pay
- By-the-packet
- Micropayment
- Wireless wallet
- QoS (conversational, streaming, interactive,
background) - Bundling
- IDC value of packet-based billing will rise from
94.6 million in 2001 to 855.7 million in 2005.
19The Mobile Internet is a Huge Opportunity
- Aspect Fixed Mobile
- Users 2003 Fewer More
- Cost of device More Less
- Billings Cumbersome Easy
- Micropayments Very difficult Built in
- Willingness to pay
- Want for Free Assume it will
- cost
20Rules of Thumb for Wireless Profits
- Any technology sufficiently advanced is
indistinguishable from magic Arthur C. Clarke - MAGIC Mobile Anytime Globally Integrated
Customized (NTT DoCoMo) - PAIR Personal Available Immediate Real time
- 0-1-2-3 0 manuals, 1 button to Internet, 2
seconds max delay, 3 keystrokes maxi to any svc - SMS messages set the pain threshold for billing
(10 to 15 cents/message) so use grows
21Wireless Money The 5 Ms
- Movement escaping the fixed place
- Moment expanding the concept of time
- Me extending myself and my community
- Money expending financial resources
- Machines empowering devices.
22Deeper Services
- Movement Mobility, Locality, Globality, Home
Base, Positioning - Moment Plan, Postpone, Fill Time, Catch Up,
Multitask, Real Time - Me Customized, Relevant, Community, Permission,
Presence, Multisession (most powerful, relates to
cool self image) - Money M-commerce, Micropayments, M - banking,
M-wallet, M-advertising, Sponsorship - Machines Telematics, Metering, Remote Access,
Appliances, Robotics, Automation, Connecting with
Anything and Everything
23Granularity Ever Smarter Guide
- Location aware pull information
- Location aware pull information with location
- sensitive map
- Location aware pull information with map and
guidance - Preference based pull information with map and
guidance - Preference based push information with map and
guidance - Time sensitive push information with map and
guidance - Preferences learning intelligent guide with map
and guidance
24Adventures in Transparent Infrastructure
- Broadband Internet Connection via Wireless Wi-Fi
- Over 600 Access Points on the Campus
- Year- Long Living Laboratory Experiment 2001-02
- 500 Computer Science Engineering Undergraduates
- 300 Entering UCSD Sixth College StudentsFall
2002 - Experiments with Geo-Location and Interactive
Maps
UC San Diego
UC Irvine
Cal-(IT)2 Team Bill Griswold, Gabriele
Wienhausen, UCSD Rajesh Gupta, UCI
25The New World of Mobile Geolocation
Source Bill Griswold, CSE, UCSD
26Local Wi-Fi Can Be Linked With Wide Area
Cellular Internet
- First US Taste of 3G Cellular Internet
- UCSD Jacobs School Antenna
- Three Years Before Commercial
- Linking to 802.11 Mobile Bubble
- Tested on Campus CyberShuttle
- You Can Ride it on Friday on the Tour!b
Rooftop Qualcomm 1xEV Access Point
Roberto Padovani, CTO Qualcomm
www.calit2.net/news/2002/4-2-bbus.html
27Movement Other Services
- Launch soon and learn from feedback
- Translation (typed in text, translate text and
say the words, human interpreters, translate my
speech) - Business Services
- Fleet control (get right vehicle in right place,
time) - CRM and the corporate portal (present only vital
data on customer, calendar, FAQs) - Order entry system (Purchasing history)
- Telehealth (patient monitoring devices, remote
care, access to doctors - Synchronizing devices (Virtual PDA)
- Employee (monitoring, bundle h/o, Vir Home Env)
28Moment Making use of every second
- Mobile Entertainment (esp. games)
- Micro Movies and advertainment
- Entertainment bundling (jokes, horoscopes,
puzzles, games, cartoons, spoofs, trivia, voting)
- Repackaging serial content (daily subscription,
content archive, content fan club, Hollycules
to own or gift, viral marketing content) - Mobile information and infotainment (info push,
news, premium news coverage, news partners) - Customized news, alerts (apartment finder)
- Info pull (white and yellow pages, dictionaries,
calendars, comparison shopper)
29Me Mobile Extending Self, Community
- Rich calls (enhancing voice with images, sounds)
- Draw me the map/shared whiteboard)
- Shared video image, shared original music
- Games and rich call (taunting opponents)
- Personalizing calls (custom ring and picture,
Corporate Face Catalog, Look whos calling,
Personal publicity photo, image of topic) - Show me (remote eye, repairman, real estate)
- Video calls
- CRM (money rewards, dynamic location lock)
- Messaging for love (Dating, SMS, MMS)
- Communities (spreading message, chat)
30Mobile Money
- M-Commerce (ticketinglook for lines)
- Selling digital content (mass audience content
that is already digital, know how in digital
form) - Delivering digitally non digital content
- Government fees, licenses, taxes
- Tangible item purchase (vs. credit card, but on
phone bill) - Mobile Advertising (mAd, NOT mAd spam, location
based advertising at mass audience events,
sports, ballet, church, movies) - Ads in music streaming, guaranteed listeners
- Rewarding mAd/frequent viewer miles
- Infovirus, call to action, Smart mobs, coupons,
blue light. - M-banking, wiring money to mobile users phone
31Machine Services The Internet Iceberg
- Automobile Telematics (Car service and
maintenance, car navigation, road advertisement
requests, car security) - Car multitasking, games for kids in car
- Service integration (Home Entertainment tells car
what businesses you clicked on, streaming to PDA
of MP3 on home computer, three degrees) - Remote views (inspections, Homeland security)
- Remote control (home control, home alarm,
industrial metering, traffic monitoring) - Law enforcement (speed trap, call criminal)
- Feedback (customer surveys, auto check in)
32Exercise Was the First Wireless Monitoring
Application
33As Our Bodies Move On-LineDigital Medicine Will
Emerge
- New SensorsVideo Pill
- Battery, Light, Video Camera
- Images Transmitted to Hip Device
- Next StepPutting You On-Line!
- Wireless Internet Transmission
- Key Metabolic and Physical Variables
- Model -- Dozens of Processors and 60 Sensors /
Actuators Inside of our Cars - Post-Genomic Personalized Medicine
- Combine Across Populations
- Genetic Code
- Digital Imaging
- Body Data Flow
- Use Powerful AI Data Mining
www.givenimaging.com
www.philometron.com
34Conceptual Framework for a Personal Medical
Assistant
- Personal Medical Assistant
- - Multi-Network Gateway
- Processor
- Sensor Data Analysis,
- Monitoring,
- Coding
- -Communicates With Monitoring Station
- Medical
- Monitoring
- Station
- Event Analysis
- Data Shaping
- Control Data
- Sensors
- Sensor Data
- Control Data
- Local-area networking
Source Sujit Dey. UCSD ECE
35Current and Potential Markets for Remote Patient
Monitoring
- Wellness
- Fitness Monitoring
- Obesity Epidemic
- Ambulatory Hospital Patients
- Cardiac Out Patients
- Elder Care
- Global Population of People Over 65, Will
Increase 88 by 2025 - Clinical Trials
- New Drug Discovery
- Emergency Response
- Natural Disasters
- Homeland Security
36What is a SensorNet?
- Sensors
- Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,
- Sensor Platform
- Computing, Power, Storage, Radios,
- Telecommunications Infrastructure
- Wired, Wireless, Internet,
- Sensor Arrays
- Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc,
- Layered Software
- Backend Data Systems
37Environmental SensorNets--Water and Climate
Instrumentsin the Santa Margarita Ecological
Reserve
Source, Dan Cayan, UCSD SIO
38Integrate Remote Reconnaissance with Satellite
Imagery and Ground SensorNets
HOTLINKs for Damage Locations
using GPS and Digital Photos on GIS
Maria Feng UCI Civil Environmental Engineering
39Putting Laboratories on a Chip
Source Greg McRae, MIT and ANL
40Can Schools Become a Source for Data Intensive
Science?
US EPA PAMS Sites
California Air Resources Board
Potential for Dramatic Increase in Coverage!
41Ad Hoc Mesh Wireless Distributed Sensor Network
Source Graviton
- Application Examples
- Homeland Security
- Emissions Monitoring
- M2M Communications
42Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Control Rooms Will
Integrate SensorNets with Legacy Data
- Common Needs for Research or Emergency Response
- Situational Awareness
- Common Operational Picture
- Local Data Warehouse with Remote Data Access
- AI Data Mining of Distributed Databases
- Spatial Data Analysis
- Consequences Assessment Tool Set
Image Source Panoram Technologies
43CAL-(IT)2 WIISARD Scenario for Improving
Emergency Medical Response
Stadium
Source Dr. Leslie Lenert, UCSD SOM
44IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World
- Data collection to knowledge synthesis, data
mining - Data ? Information ? Knowledge
- IPv6 will help us collect mine usable
information from massive amounts of data. - Integrated technologies
- Sensors, computation, data management
- IPv6 will enable us to develop end-to-end
applications which integrate ALL technologies.
45IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World
- Universal Access
- Location-independence, ubiquitous access to
computing, data, resources - IPv6 enables us to develop applications that can
be initiated from anywhere at anytime - Global-scale collaboration
- Collaboration tools, access, interoperability
- IPv6 enables us to communicate, work, and
recreate with people all over the world, even as
we go nomadic and constantly mobile
46 Trends that will drive this decade
- Shrinking computers
- Coopers Law
- Shifting from Hardware to software to services
- Galaxy of Gadgets
- AR and Milgrams Continuum
47The Incredible Shrinking Computer
48 49The Borgs are Loose and Coming for You(New York
Times, Oct., 1999)
- BORGS ARE THE HARBINGERS OF 4G and use wearable
computers all day, every day - TEXT BORGS Thad Starner, REMEMBRANCE AGENT, a
sort of onbody Google that searches and ranks
each new input for relevance. - SOUND BORGS Greg Priest Dorman, dyslexic
sysadmin, uses CharmIT to do text to speech for
all his messages, at 3 to 5 times normal rate. - VIDEO BORGS Steve Mann has been wearing video
cameras for over a decade of souveillance. Asks
wife to pick fruit remotely friends for
location advice.
50Market Adoption
- Innovators
- Research Labs, Universities
- Technophiles
- Govt / Military
- Early Adopters
- Field Technicians
- Medical Specialists
- Stock Brokers
- Early Majority
- Gen Y
- Upper / Middle Income Entertainment
- People with Disabilities
- Late Majority
- Mobile workforce
51Applications of Wearable Computers
- Mobile Entertainment Systems
- Point of Sales Terminals
- Portable Test Equipment
- Industrial Automation
- Automotive Repair Diagnostics
- Banking
- Kiosks
- Thin Client/Server Applications
- Embedded Internet/intranet Appliances/Gateways/Fir
ewalls - Wireless Network Repeaters or Base Stations
- Scientific Surveys
- Construction
- Academic Instruction
- Personnel training
- Customer and user studies
- Network analysis mobile nfs diagnosis, intruder
detection, packet sniffing
52Value Proposition
Wearable Computers
Laptops
High Functionality
Cell Phones PDAs Pagers
Old Mainframes
Low Functionality
High Mobility
Low Mobility
53The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
Old network management systems were single
vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid
five-year preplanned networks.
1960-1980
Mainframe/ IBM era
101 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/ DEC era
11 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/ PC era
110 people/machine ratio
New network operations systems must be designed
for adaptability and change (new equipment,
multiple vendors, new service offerings/
provisioning).
1990-
Enterprise networks/ Cisco era
1100? people/machine ratio
2000-
Broadband packet networks ?
11000? people/machine ratio
Source Paul Johnson
541000s of subscriptions/person
- Given Imagings camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, with data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box. - Medical Microelectronic Machines (later nanodocs)
tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment
against millions of high resolution medical
records, each with IP address. - Localizers as described in Vernor Vinges A
Deepness in the Sky will link internal and
external bodies. - The value of curing cancer, heart disease approx.
50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
55Source Pister,Berkeley
5616 mm3 total circumscribed volume4.8 mm3 total
displaced volume
Source Pister, Berkeley
57Over the Next Decade NanobioinfoengineeringWill
Revolutionize SensorNets
58How do you manage all those tiny doctors?
- IPv6
- features
- 3.41038 unique addresses available
- Stateless autoconfiguration
- Security authentication and encryption
- Mobility management
59How can we secure these doctors? IPv6
- IPSec
- uses IPv6 extension headers
- security modes
- authentication on IP level
- encryption on IP level
- based on private and public key algorithms
- manual or automatic key distribution
- allows secure end-to-end communication and
Virtual Private Networks
60Mobility management in IPv6
- Goals
- transparency of mobility to higher layers
- addressability using the home address
Correspondent
node
Internet
Internet
Home
Internet
agent
Mobile node
Home
Foreign
subnet
subnet
61The mobile cyborg
62Coopers Law
- Spectral efficiency doubles every 2.5 years
63The Shifting Market
- Hardware ? Software ?Services
64 65Endowing IPv6 Users with Superpowers
- Omniscience ability to know almost anything,
instantly (John Doe) - Clairvoyance ability to see what is happening
anywhere on earth - Omnipresence ability to project power or
influence anywhere - Collective Intelligence joining minds
66The Killer App of Ubiquitous IP
- Six billion people online
- using human-centric wearable devices
- that allow reception, context-aware processing,
retransmission of signals - including electromagnetic spectrum (television,
radio, cellular, satellite, medical, etc.) - and molecules (smells and chemicals)
- all provided for an affordable fee
- and constituting the largest industry.
67The Wireless Broadband University
- Any data, images, videos, animations, avatar
mentors living or dead or imaginary or composite
are available to anyone at anytime. - Augmented reality presentations replace
Powerpoint presentations. - Pocket College any course, any test, anytime,
anywhere, anyone. - Upgrading the workforce every quarter.
68Campuses Are Increasingly Covered With High
Bandwidth Wi-Fi Wireless Internet Zones
UCSD
- UCSD Wireless Projects
- ActiveClass
- ActiveCampus
- Explorientation
- CyberShuttle
- UCI Wireless Projects
- GPS PDAs
- Intelligent Transportation
- Wearables
http//activecampus2.ucsd.edu/acelaunch/coverage.p
hp
69Municipal Broadband Roll Out
- Municipalities cover over 300 square miles with
802.11x (two circles with a 7 mile radius, pi x r
squared, 49 sq. miles x 3.14) if they have
backhaul. System now working at UCSD Wi Fi
Bubble, including on the Cyberbus at gives
bursts of 2 Mbps and, more typically, about 450
Kbps. Malls, campuses, bases can afford. - With 6WiFi and participation in CIBER, the CTIA
administrated roaming billing system, this
becomes roamable, and economically fungible. - Give citizens wireless broadband as a public
good, like fountains that create a positive
microclimate in dry, hot cities, only for
business and communication.
70The Great Augmentation
- Augmented memory allows hyper documentation of
ones life, recording everything and keeping the
Life Bits on your 100 GB hard drive on your hip. - In the future, after emergence of AI, you may
want to upload yourself to the net. - Augmented reality allows us to overlay
semitransparent text, images, video, from context
awareness. Head tracking enables hands free
operation.
71The Paradigm Shift
72Milgrams Continuum (1994)
73Transitions
- Tangible AR interfaces support transitions along
the Reality-Virtuality Continuum
74The Next Logical Step In Wireless Data
75The Information Foundation
- Just as foundation of building (brick vs.
structural steel) determines how high it can go,
the information foundation (structure of
networks) determines how high civilization can
reach. - Jim Bound IPv6 is infrastructure!
- Latif Ladid IPv4 is straining to support just
one application like the World Wide Web. IPv6
could support at least ten applications the size
of the WWW. - Like putting round peg in round hole how do we
drop entire industries into the expanding IPv6,
creating commercial explosions?
76A Mania for Measures and New Names
- The Measure of Reality Quantification and
Western Society 1250 to 1600 by Alfred Crosby - Europeans were nothing special around 1000, were
the science leaders in 1500, and then dominated
the world. Why? Many excuses, but only one clear
difference mania for measurement and
quantification. - Measuring India to the yard. Mad dogs and
Englishmen. - Musical notation thousand singing from the same
sheet. - Perspective in painting 50 innovators in
Temperance, greater realism led to being on
walls, led to goals setting, historical
recognition, and objective mentality. - Clocks went from town squares gt tables gt wrists,
and helped determine longitude. - Science led to technology led to victory and
colonization.
77The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World
- The Pyramids of Giza
- The Hanging Gardens of Babylon
- The Colossus of Rhodes
- The Lighthouse of Alexandria
- The Mausoleum of Halicarnassus
- The Temple of Artemis at Ephesus
- The Temple of Zeus at Olympiad
78The Seven Wonders of the IPv6 World
- Terra Sapiens create us as superorganism.
- Earth, Incorporated all of us shareholders
- 4GEO Give every square meter its own unique IPv6
address, then link to GIS software, GPS, and
allow posting messages. - The World Water Web put RF sensors almost
everywhere to signal Wet, Hot, etc. and get real
time measure in liters. - The Great Replication 3D copy of everything
- The Great Augmentation sharing POV
- The Ultimate Market anyone buy, sell, anything.
79The Colossus of Rhodes
The Statue of Liberty
- We Don't Want to
- Wait For 2000 Years!
80ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
- Atlas application, supports the world
- Voice (500 billion annually)
- Radio (add personalization, location)
- Television (Every show ever made)
- Medical Monitoring
- Simulations
- High resolution Location Based Services,
including security
81Powers of IPv6
- Power of Numbering
- Power of Sequencing
- Power of Ranking
- Power of Naming
- Power of Leading
- Power of Granularity
- Power of Bounding
- Power of Finer Address (from c/o General
Delivery to street to 5 digit zip to 9 digit zip
to 128 digit zip) - Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
- Power of Containerized Cargo
- Power of Tight Targeting
- Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
82Closing Thought
- The future is here.
- Its just not evenly distributed.
- William Gibson.
- Alex Lightman
- Alex_at_charmed.com
83Books come with 24 hour tech support, lunch, and
a friendship
84Closing Thought
Thank you! Please stay in touch. Alex
Lightman Alex_at_charmed.com Tel. 310 717 7745
- Thank you for coming! See you in November at the
next Summit.