Globalization Risks

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Globalization Risks OpportunitiesAN
INTRODUCTION

• Michel Henry Bouchet
• Glob_at_l Finance Chair-Ceram
• Seminar September 2007

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Globalization seminar

• Congratulation for joining the Globalization
  seminar in English!
• English means an extra effort for both of us but
  this is the very meaning of globalization
• Globalization means that people rub their
  shoulders with each other to communicate,
  exchanging not only goods and services, but also
  ideas!
• Do not hesitate to speak up and if you need
  anything clarified, let me know!

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Why tackling Gobalization? I
Abrupt fall of CAC-40 on 09/11 due to spill-over
effect of the terrorist attacks on all financial
and commodities markets worldwide
09/11
Boursorama
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Why exploring globalization? II
Large trade openness of Thailand leads to
spectacular current account and growth adjustment
after 1998 crisis S XGS/PIB gt 120
GDP
Current account
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WHY looking at Globalization? -
IIIAugust-September 2007 US subprime crisis
contamination on Nikkei market in Japan
09/2006
09/2007
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Why tackling Globalization? IV
The on-going weakening of the / exchange rate
since 09/11 has had an impact on investment and
tourism flows in Europe (and on the craftsmans
and potters life!)
www.culture.gouv.fr/.../ bourges/bourges9.htm.
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Why tackling Globalization? V

• Deutsche Banks Head of Global Equity Markets
  Yassine Bouhara (09/2006)
•  Tomorrow, the global decision centers wont be
  any longer in London or New York, but in
  Shanghai, Bombay, Dubai, Moscow or Sao Paolo! 

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Seminar objectives

• This seminar tackles the issue of globalization,
  as a socio-economic, financial, and cultural
  process.
• It also takes up the debates sparked by the
  globalization process. How to consider the best
  possible arguments on all sides of the debates
  and to weigh them against evidence?
• We will not provide a comprehensive answer to all
  questions concerning the risks and merits of
  globalization. Rather, we will take up the
  issues as they address particular policy areas
  and developments, using examples.
• The format thus emphasizes dialogue and debate,
  in class meetings as well as in group oral and
  written assignments.

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Globalization Seminar The rules of the game

• 10 sessions over 5 days
• Prerequisite 1 Be on time! Doors get closed at
  H - 1 mn
• Prerequisite 2 Mobile phones OFF!
• Prerequisite 3 Read the seminars documents
  BEFORE attending the course
• Prerequisite 4 Participate! Speak up!
• Each session starting on Session 3 on Day 2 will
  begin with an oral presentation by a group of 6
  students (random calls) discussing a few hot
  spots regarding Globalization based on daily
  reading of the news (FT, Echos, Tribune, WSJ,
  Internet, IMF/WB newsletter)
• The hot spot review should last lt 15 mns and open
  up to a debate

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Oral presentations what is hot?rooted in daily
reviews of current events

• Chinas management of the Renmibi exchange rate
• Political transition in Cuba Raul vs. Fidel?
• Emerging Chavez-Castro-Correa-Morales axis in
  Latin America
• The Mattel troubles in Chinas toy market
• Global impact of on-going rise in oil prices
  (PSA)
• Global impact of the US subprime crisis!
• Bernankes recent declaration regarding the Feds
  monetary policy targets
• Scope for cutting interest rates by the Fed and
  the ECB?
• Annual meeting of the IMF and the WB in 10/2007

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Work program

• Start preparing your case study to be delivered
  on October 11th. The topic of your case study
  must be defined asap and given to the professor
  on Wednesday, September 19th.
• CASE STUDY a 25-30 page well written and well
  articulated report tackling a success or failure
  story of a  global strategy  it can be that of
  a MNC, a bank, an investment fund, a country, an
  NGO

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What is a case study dealing with Globalization?

• Global strategy objectives? A private company, an
  NGO, a bank, an investment fund, a country?
• Presenting the strategy MAs, FDI, offshoring,
  diversifying in new markets, new products?
• Analyzing options, risks and opportunities,
  decisions, and achievements
• Analyzing means, cost /-
• Conclusion
• Information Sources

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Case studies?

• Global strategy analysis of LOREAL, Danone,
  Renault, Google
• Global strategy of HSBC, Citigroup, SocGen, BNP,
  Warren Buffet, Soros
• Thailands global trade policy
• The Renminbi overvalued or just right?
• Cuba a globalized economy?
• LVMH in Asia
• Banco de Mexicos management of the peso
• Alliances in the mobile phone market
• The Renault-Nissan strategic alliance
• The SUEZ-GDF merger
• The underground economy

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A few exemples of possible Case studies (cont)

• Boeing-Airbus fierce competition
• Internet and the protection of intellectual
  property rights
• Chinese Tv TCL company
• Bigger Bangs world tour (150 million of
  income)
• Wal-Mart a global company
• Frances productivity challenge
• The role of the BIS, the role of the IMF
• The - competition
• The role and challenge of hedge funds
• Regulating offshore financial centers?
• The mafia a global organization?
• Global Money laundering
• The Vatican a global institution?

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Seminar Policies

•  Read the documents and the key chapters of the
  book(s) that highlight the seminar
• Keep reading the daily news to be abreast of the
  unfolding of current issues pertaining to
  globalization stand ready to be called upon for
  any daily hot spot review!
• List of case study topics Wednesday, 09/19
• Delivering the final group reports October11th
  cob
• Absolutely no excuses will be accepted for late
  assignments, unless they are formally approved in
  advance by the academic direction and by the
  professor.
• No exceptions.

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Seminar Policies (cont)

• Dates 17-21 September
• Exam September 29th
• The final exam will consist of a 25/30 question
  quiz dealing with issues tackled and discussed
  during the course and/or provided in the
  seminars documents

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Programme (cont)

• Evaluation
• Case studies  grading from 0 to 20  (40)
• Final exam-quiz (60)
• Group oral presentations (/-)

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Trajectory
D4 S9/S10 Hot spot reviews Global
Risks, Gouvernance and conclusion France Global
challenges?
D3 S7/S8 Hot spot reviews Globalization and IFIs
D3 S5/S6 Hot spot reviews Approaches and debates
D2 S3/S4 Hot spot review Outsourcing and global
capital flows
D1 S1/S2 Intro Globalization risks vs
opportunities