Fuel Cell Technology: Is it the future of power

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Fuel Cell TechnologyIs it the future of power?

• Jennifer Clark
• Senior Project in Mathematics
• April 27, 2001

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The Issue of Global Warming

• Greenhouse gas emissions (in excess of natural
  rates)
• Increasing global average temperature
• Anticipated Results
• Sea level rising
• Disrupted water supply
• Changes in precipitation and weather patterns

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What is a Fuel Cell?

• Description
• A device that produces electricity through an
  electrochemical process that combines oxygen with
  hydrogen
• Only byproducts are water and heat

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Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM)

• Polymer (plastic) electrolyte
• Low operating temperature
• Applications
• Vehicles
• Small stationary power units
• Portable power devices
• Not yet commercialized

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Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC)

• Liquid phosphoric acid electrolyte
• High operating temperature
• Requires high priced support system
• Costly maintenance
• Large-scale applications
• Already commercialized

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Government Support

• Department of Energy (DOE)
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  (NASA)
• Department of Defense (DOD)

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Department of Defense

• Natural Gas Utilization Equipment Program (DOD
  Fuel Cell Demonstration Program)
• PAFC power plants on DOD facilities
• FY93 - 18 million FY94 - 17.8 million
• Climate Change Fuel Cell Program (Fuel Cell
  Rebate Program)
• 1000/kW grants to non-Federal entities
• FY95 - 8 million FY96-97 - 10.6 million
• Navy Environmental Quality Program
• Demonstration of PEM fuel cells

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DOD Fuel Cell Demonstration Program Sites
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DOD Fuel Cell Rebate Program Sites

• FY 93 - 94 Program
• None
• FY 95 Program
• 38 Non-DOD 5 DOD Sites
• FY 96-97
• 48 Non-DOD 6 DOD Sites

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International Fuel Cell Corp/ONSI

• Unit of United Technologies
• NASA missions
• Commercial fuel cell - PC25 power plant
• Developing PEMFCs

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Demand

• Data
• From DOD PAFC programs
• Time series data (1993-1996/7)
• Quantity of fuel cells purchased
• Price of ONSIs PC25
• My models
• Simple linear regression
• Inverse equation

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Demand Schedule

• Linear regression
• Qx 66.307 - 0.011 Px
• OR
• Px 6173.84 - 93.11 Qx
• Inverse equation
• Qx Px / (0.121 Px -208.852)
• OR
• Px (208.852 Qx) / (0.121 Qx - 1)

DOD Programs Demand Curves
DI DL
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Cost Comparison Analysis

• Public cost estimates
• 4000/kW - company quote
• 3000/kW - government estimate
• 1500/kW - goal for reduced cost
• My cost estimate
• Upper bound -3100/kW
• Lower bound- 2000/kW
• Average - 2550/kW

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Implications of the Model

• At the lowest targeted cost (1500/kW) - quantity
  demanded not high
• Market needs exogenous help
• Help needed to support PAFC market may be too
  large
• Shift focus to PEM fuel cells

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Market Entry Opportunities
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Acknowledgments

• Special Thanks to
• MPS Dept.
• Economics Dept.

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Questions
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Derived Cost Estimate

• Cost derived from component parts estimates
• Fuel processor 400-600/kW
• Fuel cell stack 700-1100/kW
• Power converter (inverter) 250-500/kW
• Others
• Installation 250-500/kW
• Casing 100/kW
• Machinery 150/kW
• Testing 150/kW